Gale Warning 573, NWS Anchorage, AK

673 
FZAK51 PAFC 271131
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-280015-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1005 mb low over the northern Gulf remains nearly stationary 
and weakens to 1012 mb Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-280015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-280015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-280015-
Resurrection Bay-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-280015-
Prince William Sound-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt, except NW 25 kt S and W of Seal Island. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-280015-
Port Valdez-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-280015-
Valdez Narrows-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ128-280015-
Valdez Arm-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft.
.TONIGHT THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ129-280015-
Passage Canal-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier in the morning. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ130-280015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-280015-
Barren Islands East-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-280015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-280015-
Chiniak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-280015-
Marmot Bay-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-280015-
Shelikof Strait-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-280015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-280015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-280015-
Kachemak Bay-
331 AM AKDT Tue Oct 27 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
459 AM AKDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

On satellite imagery, there is a mature system over Southcentral
with the leading edge of the cloud shield north of Fairbanks. The
cold front spans from the Gulf to the North Pacific and the
baroclinic zone is discernible to Hawaii. On a different
satellite channel, the moisture associated with this low is
ranging from 250-300 percent above normal. At the National Weather
Service Office in Anchorage .46 of an inch of rain fell in a 6
hour period last night, later sleet was observed followed by a
wintry mix of rain and snow. The jet core is bisecting the Gulf
and the nose of the jet is at the Copper River Delta with a
magnitude of 150 knots. The latest ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer)
data has detected gale force winds near the Copper River Delta,
over a large portion of the Gulf, the Barren Islands, near the
Augustine volcano and in Shelikof Strait. The radars at King
Salmon (PAKC), Kenai (PAHG) and Middleton Island (PAIH) have been
active overnight and early this morning. The radar at Kenai had
"bright banding" signature on it early this morning over Cook
Inlet. The three warmest places in the entire state the past 24
hours were Sitka (54F)...Kodiak (52F) and Homer (50F). Looking to
the west, there is a second front moving across the western
Aleutians but this system has lost its gusto.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The run to run continuity of the operational models has been poor
over the past 72 hrs. However, the general consensus is that more
moisture is on tap today for much of Southcentral. The
thermodynamics of the models related to precipitation type (rain
vs. snow vs. sleet) continues to be vexing even as we move deeper
into the cold season.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Overnight the lowest cloud deck came down to 500 ft and
then went to 700 ft. Low cigs will continue this TAF package.
Currently, the surface low responsible for the degraded flight
conditions is near Seward. This low has modified tropical airmass
associated with it. There is no shortage of moisture and the
potential for snow on the tarmac is there. Amendments will be
made as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Tuesday night)...
A storm force low just south of Seward early this morning will
move into Prince William Sound, then fall apart as it attempts to
head inland. Strong winds will linger across the Gulf waters and
Kodiak Island as colder air moves in behind the low. An upper
level short-wave moving from Bristol Bay into the Gulf will also
enhance winds today over the western Gulf. As the low reaches
Prince William Sound, gale force winds coming through Kamishak Bay
will bend northward across southern Cook Inlet and into Kachemak
Bay. Somewhat weaker winds will continue northward all the way to
Kenai. Gap winds will also pick up at times in Seward/Resurrection
Bay and Whittier/Passage Canal.

Precipitation type has been and continues to be a huge challenge.
A special 06Z sounding at Anchorage along with the 12Z sounding
show the profile right on the edge between rain and snow. While
precipitation intensity was certainly there (with half an inch or
more of rain), the culprit appears to be the winds. The track and
strength of the low allowed Turnagain Arm winds to bring in
warmer temperatures overnight between about 500 ft and 1000 ft
above the ground. Meanwhile, northerly winds from the Matanuska
Valley southward into Anchorage helped keep surface temperatures
elevated. With the low now headed eastward, winds are now finally
dying down. The aforementioned short-wave will produce moderate
precipitation early this morning from the western Kenai to
Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Thus, expect more areas of snow,
especially near and along the mountains. However, without any
cold air advection, some areas will continue to see mostly rain
(especially when precipitation intensity is lighter). Have decided
to keep Winter Weather Advisories out for Anchorage and the
Mat-Su through Noon as there could be some locally slippery
roads. However, any snow accumulation will generally be wet and
slushy. As the upper trough tracks east this afternoon and
evening, some colder air will finally move in from the north and
west. Precipitation will linger along the west sides of mountain
ranges and should be mostly in the form of snow.

Meanwhile, warmer air also made its way up through Thompson Pass
and well into the Copper River Basin. Thus, have cut back on
additional snow accumulation for those areas. Still, the upper
level short-wave will provide one last punch of heavier
precipitation and additional snow accumulation is likely for
these areas through the afternoon hours.

Southcentral will dry out tonight as the upper trough exits. A
residual low in the northeast Gulf combined with weak cold air
advection will produce gap winds along the coast. Otherwise,
colder temperatures will settle into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low in the Gulf is keeping an influence on the weather across
Southwest Alaska for today. The bulk of precipitation remains
over the Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay, which will
slowly diminish through tonight as the low moves out of the
region. Precipitation type remains a challenge for this forecast
with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark. Overnight
temperatures have helped some areas transition from rain to snow
for early this morning, while others areas have seen a mix of rain
and snow. The chance for rain will continue through early
Wednesday for the AKPEN as an upper level wave drops down across
the region. High temperatures across Southwest Alaska remain in
the mid 30s to 40s today, with a slight cooling trend over
throughout the week as cold air advection filters in from the
north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Winds over the eastern Bering and south of the Alaska Peninsula
will diminish throughout the day as a low in the Gulf continues to
exit to the east. Out west, a weak frontal system will weaken as
it moves east over the central Bering and Aleutians. Relatively
quiet weather will persists over the Bering through Wednesday
morning as a weak low moves into the central Bering.

The next strong North Pacific low system approaches the Aleutians
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models are increasing in confidence
in the position and strength of this system.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Models are in better agreement for Wednesday with the low over the
northern Gulf weakening as it drifts slowly to the east. Models
diverge heading into Thursday afternoon with the low strengthening
and bringing the potential for increased winds and waves to the
Gulf. There is low confidence that another low will move across
the southern Gulf and towards the north Gulf coast Friday. If this
solution were to pan out, gale force winds will be possible
across the Gulf. Models are in better agreement that a low will
skirt across the Aleutian Chain Wednesday night through Friday.
For now, gale force winds seem to accompany this system, however,
storm force winds cannot be ruled out at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A series of arctic troughs track south across the state mid-week
into the weekend, advecting colder air out of the Interior and
into the Southwest/Southcentral regions. By late next week, day
time temperatures will drop slightly, and overnight temperatures
will drop significantly for the Southcentral and non-coastal areas
of Southwest Alaska. Greatest impacts should remain north of the
Alaska Range, with the higher elevations and eastern portions of
the Copper Basin possibly seeing some snow accumulation.

Late next week and into the weekend, a system of low pressure
passes just south of the Aleutians. The ECMWF has committed to
matching closely with the GFS across all parameters, therefore
the Canadian solution is the outlier here and can be ruled out at
this time. Gales along the Aleutian coasts are very likely, and
storms are also a possibility. Towards the end of the weekend,
another low approaches the Aleutians from the west and quickly
veers south. This system seems to travel a similar route as the
previous one, tracking just south of the Chain. There is still
quite a bit of model disagreement on location, strength, and speed
of this storm, but the path seems relatively consistent across
all solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 131 141 145.
MARINE...Storm 119 120 351 352. Gale 128 130 131 132
137 138 139 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ALH
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1012 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
10/26/2020  M2.8 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 AM     SNOW             1 N SUTTON              61.74N 148.88W
10/26/2020  M2.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0643 AM     SNOW             2 SE ANCHORAGE          62.63N 149.41W
10/26/2020  M1.5 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0927 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.24N 149.44W
10/26/2020  E8.6 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0845 AM     SNOW             NUNAKA VALLEY           61.20N 149.77W
10/26/2020  M1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

0708 AM     SNOW             2 ESE POTTER HILL       61.08N 149.78W
10/26/2020  M0.3 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM     SNOW             MOUNTAIN VIEW           61.22N 149.81W
10/26/2020  M1.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1207 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     SNOW             PAXSON                  63.09N 145.61W
10/26/2020  M8.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM     SNOW             PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
10/26/2020  M1.5 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

1015 AM     SNOW             CHULITNA                62.89N 149.84W
10/26/2020  E6.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 AM     SNOW             2 NNW CANTWELL          63.39N 148.95W
10/26/2020  M4.0 INCH        DENALI             AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1003 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.41N 149.55W
10/26/2020  M1.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1242 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     SNOW             ERNESTINE DOT CAMP      61.45N 145.11W
10/26/2020  M6.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CHANGED OVER TO RAIN.

1232 PM     SNOW             3 W PALMER              61.64N 149.22W
10/26/2020  M3.5 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM     SNOW             GLACIER VIEW LONG RIFE  61.80N 147.79W
10/26/2020  E4.3 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            STILL SNOWING HEAVILY.

1229 PM     SNOW             BEAR VALLEY             61.08N 149.72W
10/26/2020  E4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
139 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     SNOW             1 SE PALMER             61.59N 149.10W
10/26/2020  E1.3 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1256 PM     SNOW             7 NNW PALMER            61.69N 149.23W
10/26/2020  M3.8 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CHANGED OVER TO RAIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
148 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             6 WNW PALMER            61.64N 149.28W
10/26/2020  E4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     SNOW             5 N SUTTON              61.79N 148.88W
10/26/2020  M4.0 INCH        MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RC