Gale Warning 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

199 
FZAK51 PAFC 052334
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-061245-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 mb low 40 nm southeast of Cordova moves to 60 nm southwest
of Middleton Island at 1014 mb Tue afternoon before moving inland
Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-061245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-061245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-061245-
Resurrection Bay-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-061245-
Prince William Sound-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-061245-
Port Valdez-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-061245-
Valdez Narrows-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-061245-
Valdez Arm-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-061245-
Passage Canal-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-061245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-061245-
Barren Islands East-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-061245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-061245-
Chiniak Bay-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-061245-
Marmot Bay-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-061245-
Shelikof Strait-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-061245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-061245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-061245-
Kachemak Bay-
334 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

475 
FZAK51 PAFC 061135
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070000-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 mb low 45 nm southwest of Middleton Island remains nearly 
stationary through Tuesday evening before dissipating Wednesday
morning. A front enters the western Gulf by Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-070000-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070000-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070000-
Resurrection Bay-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070000-
Prince William Sound-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070000-
Port Valdez-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070000-
Valdez Narrows-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070000-
Valdez Arm-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070000-
Passage Canal-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070000-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070000-
Barren Islands East-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070000-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070000-
Chiniak Bay-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...W wind to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070000-
Marmot Bay-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070000-
Shelikof Strait-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE wind 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070000-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070000-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070000-
Kachemak Bay-
335 AM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern change is beginning with the upper level trough axis
shifting eastward over Southwest Alaska. This is in conjunction
with the 250 mb jet stream moving eastward as well. The surface
low is perfectly positioned in the upper left exit region of the
jet streak putting it near Middleton Island this afternoon.
Moisture form this low is edging back into the Cook Inlet region
after a period of mostly clear skies that brought numerous below-
freezing temperatures to Southcentral Alaska this morning.

Upper level ridging over the western Bering Sea, combined with the
trough is bringing northerly flow over the Bering. A couple of weak
surface low can also be seen on GOES-17 satellite imagery south
of the Aleutians, and another one near Unimak Pass.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week. The
next system of note will be moving through the Bering from
northwest to southeast and models are in good agreement with the
movement of both the low and front associated with this low.

Models begin to struggle a bit with the potential development of
a triple point low in the Gulf of Alaska toward next weekend. The
trough axis on the GFS and EC are at least similar so that does
give us something reasonable to work with in spite of other
differences.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A 980 mb low over the northern Gulf continues to lift northward,
bringing rain and gusty easterly winds to the northern Gulf coast.
As this low lifts inland, rainfall will taper through Monday
morning. While there is not abundant cold air aloft, some of the
higher peaks in the Copper River Basin may see a light dusting of
snowfall overnight, especially along the southern corridor of the
Richardson Highway. By Monday morning, this low will be exiting
the area to the east and centered over the Alaska-Yukon border.
Residual showers are likely over the Prince William Sound area,
however much of Southcentral should see improving conditions and
a break from the rain on Monday, as an upper level ridge builds
in from the west. By Tuesday, weak troughing develops over the
northern Gulf, keeping scattered showers over Prince William Sound
and nearby coastal areas. Winds over the water will be minimal,
with flow expected to be below small craft levels with the
exception of winds through Kamishak Bay and across the Barren
Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday, where small craft levels are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Scattered showers will continue near the Kuskokwim Delta coast
through Monday in onshore flow. Otherwise quiet conditions with
partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected across the rest of the
region, although showers or flurries remain possible near higher
elevations under weak upper shortwaves. Any lingering
precipitation will end by Tuesday under a ridge. Clouds will
increase Tuesday evening ahead of a front with moderate beginning
early Wednesday morning along the coast. Brief light snow is
possible farther inland, but will quickly change to rain in a
strong southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Benign conditions are expected through Monday evening over the
western Aleutians north of high pressure. Scattered showers will
persist through Monday over the central/eastern Aleutians in a
northerly flow, likewise leading to gusty winds out of bays and
passes on the Pacific side. These will gradually taper off from
west to east by Tuesday near the aforementioned high pressure. A
strong front will track over the western Bering Monday evening,
bringing gusty southerly winds (possibly storm force) and moderate
to locally heavy rain into Tuesday. It will slightly weaken as it
moves eastward into mid-week as a result of its parent low
occluding, however similar conditions are to be expected for the
central/eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Wednesday through Friday)...

Bering/Aleutians

Early Wednesday a low will move into the northwestern Bering,
with its front stretched across the central Bering/Aleutians. Gale
force southerlies are expected ahead of the front across the
central/eastern Bering and Aleutians. Late Wednesday, this front
rapidly heads east of the Bering with winds turning west
southwesterly and decreasing to small craft advisory levels across
the region. For Thursday and Friday the low slowly weakens near
St. Matthew island as winds across the Bering/Aleutians continue
westerly at small craft levels.

Gulf of Alaska

Light westerly flow is expected Wednesday. On Thursday winds will
flip to southerly, with small craft level winds expected across
the western Gulf. On Friday winds turn northerly and fall below
small craft levels.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

A broad upper level trough is expected to extend from the central
Bering through the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral Thursday
through Sunday. Despite the low 500mb heights, temperatures are
not expected to be much colder as there is minimal cold air
advection expected over Southcentral Alaska due to the center of
the upper low remaining over the Bering Sea. This will result in
prevailing south-southeasterly flow across Southcentral which will
help provide moisture to produce showers through the area. The
strongest cold air advection will occur west of the upper low over
the western Bering/Aleutians. This strong cold air advection is
likely to result in Ocean-Effect showers throughout the western
Bering/Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood advisory zone 121.
MARINE...Storm 178. Gales 119 120 131 177 351 352 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/ED