Gale Warning 490, NWS Anchorage, AK

686 
FZAK51 PAFC 202340
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-211245-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1003 mb low 200 nm southeast of Cordova this afternoon will 
dissipate as a front moves into the central Gulf Monday 
afternoon. The front will then strengthen and remain stationary 
along the Gulf coast through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-211245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-211245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-211245-
Resurrection Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-211245-
Prince William Sound-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after 
midnight. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-211245-
Port Valdez-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-211245-
Valdez Narrows-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-211245-
Valdez Arm-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-211245-
Passage Canal-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-211245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-211245-
Barren Islands East-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-211245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt except NE 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-211245-
Chiniak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 30 kt by afternoon. Seas 7 ft 
building to 11 ft by afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-211245-
Marmot Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas building to 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt increasing to NE 30 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-211245-
Shelikof Strait-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to NE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-211245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-211245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-211245-
Kachemak Bay-
340 PM AKDT Sun Sep 20 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

814 
FZAK51 PAFC 211136
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220045-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 982 mb low 170 nm southwest of Kodiak City this morning will move 
500 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 979 mb Tuesday morning. The low 
then moves 320 nm southeast of Cordova at 976 mb Wednesday morning.

$$

PKZ119-220045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220045-
Resurrection Bay-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming variable in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220045-
Prince William Sound-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220045-
Port Valdez-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220045-
Valdez Narrows-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220045-
Valdez Arm-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220045-
Passage Canal-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220045-
Barren Islands East-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt except E 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt except NE 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220045-
Chiniak Bay-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220045-
Marmot Bay-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220045-
Shelikof Strait-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220045-
Kachemak Bay-
336 AM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

099 
FZAK51 PAFC 212343
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221245-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 983mb low 275 nm southwest of Kodiak City this afternoon will 
move to 135 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 980 mb Tuesday 
afternoon. A second low will merge with the initial low 225 nm
east of Kodiak City Wednesday afternoon at 978 mb.

$$

PKZ119-221245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221245-
Resurrection Bay-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221245-
Prince William Sound-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft 
after midnight. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft 
after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221245-
Port Valdez-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming 
E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221245-
Valdez Narrows-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221245-
Valdez Arm-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221245-
Passage Canal-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft 
building to 15 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221245-
Barren Islands East-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft by afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 14 kt after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except NE 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221245-
Chiniak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221245-
Marmot Bay-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221245-
Shelikof Strait-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 40 kt decreasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221245-
Kachemak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

895 
FZAK51 PAFC 221017
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-222300-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front along the Gulf coast will weaken Tuesday night through 
Wednesday. A complex series of lows will track from the eastern Gulf 
to the western Gulf Tue night through Wed.

$$

PKZ119-222300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-222300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-222300-
Resurrection Bay-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-222300-
Prince William Sound-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-222300-
Port Valdez-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-222300-
Valdez Narrows-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-222300-
Valdez Arm-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-222300-
Passage Canal-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-222300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-222300-
Barren Islands East-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-222300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt except NE 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-222300-
Chiniak Bay-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-222300-
Marmot Bay-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-222300-
Shelikof Strait-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-222300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-222300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-222300-
Kachemak Bay-
217 AM AKDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT Sat Sep 19 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A shortwave ridge axis extends from the north Pacific, through
southwest Alaska, up through the center part of the state. This is
in between a trough that extends from eastern Siberia through the
central Aleutians, and an area of low pressure across the
southern Gulf. Area radar imagery shows showers with this low
moving northward through the Gulf Coast, with other showers trying
to move into coastal locations of southwest Alaska as the
aforementioned ridge breaks down.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are generally in good agreement at the surface and
aloft over the next few days, leading to higher than average
forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions along with southerly winds occasionally
gusting into the 20 to 25 knot range will persist through this
evening. MVFR ceilings are possible after 8z due to an increase in
shower activity around the terminal. There is also some indication
in the forecast guidance that IFR ceilings may develop over the
terminal after 14z. Confidence in this is low, however, and is
currently not included in the current TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Sat
afternoon through Tue afternoon)...

An upper level trough to our west will move in this evening,
bringing increasing chances for rain across Southcentral. The
greatest amount of precipitation will be along the northern Gulf
coast and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. There are some showers
lifting northward this afternoon over Prince William Sound and
across the Susitna Valley, but as this trough moves in, rain is
expected to become more widespread. Sunrise on Sunday morning may
reveal sights of termination dust across the higher elevations of
the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains, as cooler temperatures aloft
allow for overnight precipitation to fall as snow.

As the trough exits to the north Sunday afternoon, conditions
should generally improve over the Susitna Valley, western Kenai
Peninsula, and Anchorage Bowl, though a stray mountain shower
cannot be ruled out. Additional rainfall is likely for the Prince
William Sound area as well as across the Copper River Basin
through Sunday night.

By Monday, the attention shifts westward, where a large low
developing over the Bering moves toward the southeast and lifts a
front across Kodiak Island early Monday. Abundant moisture and
gusty easterly winds are likely, with gale force winds expected
along the extent of this front across the Gulf waters. While the
low center remains well south of Southcentral over the Gulf, the
associated front will bring gusty winds and rain to the northern
Gulf coast as it lifts northward Tuesday morning. Once again, the
bulk of precipitation is expected to fall across Kodiak Island and
the northern Gulf coast, while interior areas of Southcentral
including the Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin
should remain relatively dry through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Generally quiet conditions are expected through the weekend. Weak
shortwave troughs are currently producing isolated showers across
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. These will
gradually taper off overnight under a weak upper level ridge.
Combined with weak southerly flow, patchy fog and/or low stratus
is possible near the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A similar pattern is
expected for Sunday with weak shortwaves propagating over
Southwest Alaska bringing isolated showers. A front associated
with a low over the eastern Aleutians will bring gusty easterly
winds to much of the region by Monday. As such, conditions will
remain dry in the lee of the Alaska Range and temperatures will
drop slightly, with lows well into the 30s over interior areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad low will move southeast across the Bering through the
weekend. Its associated front will bring steady rain and gusty
southerly winds across the Aleutians, while strong northwesterly
winds and showers will develop on its backside. Cold air
advection is starting to become more robust as the fall season
approaches. The low will become vertically stacked near Unalaska
on Sunday evening, thereby weakening. A cool, northwesterly flow
will develop is its wake ahead of a developing ridge over the
western Bering. Thus, showers will continue through early next
week.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A broad and strong storm system is expected to
remain nearly stationary and weaken over the southern Gulf through
Thursday. There is high confidence in Gale force winds over the
northern Gulf coast with potential for storm force gusts if a
secondary low is to develop in the lee of Kodiak Island on Tue. By
late Wednesday night the low is expected to weaken, which will
bring winds down to at or below small craft criteria.

Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands: There is high confidence that the
broad low pressure system over the Gulf will bring moderate to
strong northerly winds over the eastern Bering. The winds will be
strongest (gale force) through the terrain gaps from Nikolski to
Sand Point through Thursday morning. By this time winds should
calm down to well below gale criteria as the low to the east
breaks down. Over the western Bering, there is high confidence
that high pressure and calm winds are expected to persist through
Wed night. On Thursday confidence decreases significantly in
regards to the next system, with models showing a 20 mb spread.
If the stronger solutions comes to fruition, gale force winds are
possible moving east across the Aleutian Chain Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A broad and strong low pressure system is expected to be centered
over the Gulf at the start of the forecast period. The main impact
from this system will be for the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island,
where strong winds and rain are expected to persist through
Wednesday afternoon. For Southcentral it should be mostly dry,
with seasonal temperatures and the occasional shower as weak
shortwaves move around the low center. On the backside of the
low, strong winds and increasingly cool, northerly wind are
expected to persist over the eastern Bering and coastal areas of
Southwest through Thursday night. By Friday morning, an arctic
trough is expected to move in from the Bering Strait, which will
cool off the Bering considerably through Saturday.

The main forecast question is in regards to the next system
forecast to move over/near the central Aleutians Thursday night.
Forecast confidence decreases considerably due to a large model
spread in both the location and strength of this system. The GFS
and Canadian models have a storm force low clipping the central
Aleutians on Friday as it rapidly moves east into the Gulf by
Saturday morning. The primary difference between these solutions
and the EC, which has a considerably weaker system, is whether or
not jet remains zonal or becomes slightly meridional. If the jet
is to become meridional, then the storm will have a better chance
of tapping into the strong temperature gradient N/S of the
Aleutian Chain to produce a stronger storm. Regardless, model
agreement and forecast confidence increases once again Saturday, with
a strong system moving into the Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 160 172-175 177 179 411-414.
Storm Warning 176 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...CJ