Gale Warning 484, NWS Anchorage, AK

523 
FZAK52 PAFC 171532
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-180315-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 986 mb low 20 nm northwest of Port Heiden this morning will 
move inland by Friday morning. An 1003 mb low will develop 200 nm 
southwest of Dutch Harbor and move into the Gulf by Saturday 
morning. 

$$

PKZ150-180315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.


$$

PKZ155-180315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-180315-
Bristol Bay-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.


$$

PKZ165-180315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-180315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-180315-
Unalaska Bay-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ172-180315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-180315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-180315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ175-180315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-180315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ177-180315-
Adak to Kiska-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ178-180315-
Kiska to Attu-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-180315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-180315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-180315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-180315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
732 AM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

198 
FZAK52 PAFC 172338
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-181215-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1008 mb low 80 nm North of Attu moves into the Gulf of Alaska 
by Sat afternoon. Its front moves over the Aleutians and Alaska 
Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A 989 mb South Kamchatka low Fri 
afternoon moves to 120 nm West of Attu by Sat afternoon. Its 
front moves into the Central Aleutians for Sat afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-181215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-181215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. 
Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming NW. Seas 7 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-181215-
Bristol Bay-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-181215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-181215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas building to 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas building to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-181215-
Unalaska Bay-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft building
to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming W. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-181215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas building to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-181215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming NW 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas building to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-181215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas building to 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-181215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas building to 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-181215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas building to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas building to 26 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-181215-
Adak to Kiska-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas building to 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-181215-
Kiska to Attu-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas piddling to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas building to 23 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-181215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-181215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-181215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-181215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 17 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

359 
FZAK52 PAFC 181152
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-190030-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 180 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor this morning will 
move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska Saturday morning. A second 
977 mb low 330 nm west of Shemya Saturday morning will move 290 nm
northwest of Dutch Harbor at 982 mb Sunday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-190030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-190030-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-190030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-190030-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-190030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-190030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-190030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-190030-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-190030-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-190030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-190030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-190030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-190030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKDT Fri Sep 18 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 PM AKDT Wed Sep 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A short-wave trough is digging along the central to eastern
Aleutians. This is leading to a strengthening gale force surface
low just head of it. This low, just south of Cold Bay as of mid
afternoon, is tracking toward Bristol Bay. An associated frontal
system east of the low center is making its way into the western
Gulf. Winds and rain with this storm system are spreading
northward toward both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. Out ahead
of it, weak upper level waves embedded in broad southerly flow
are producing abundant cloud cover and a few showers. Conditions
are quiet over the western to central Bering and Aleutians under
the influence of weak ridging.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models have come into much better agreement with many of the
details of the system along the Alaska Peninsula as it tracks to
Southwest Alaska Thursday. Thus, have refined the wind and rain
forecast based on much of the higher resolution model data.
Models diverge a bit on a fast moving second low tracking across
the southern Bering Thursday night and into the Gulf Friday.
Have generally stuck with inherited forecast for now, so expect
some changes will be needed in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF
forecast, largely thanks to strengthening low level southeast
flow. However, southerly flow aloft will bring in rain and
ceilings may hover around the 5000' threshold at times. There
is uncertainty in the timing of frontal passage on Thursday, but
expect it somewhere around midday. Prior to frontal passage low
level wind shear will prevail, while gusty southeast winds will
move in behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Wed
afternoon through Friday afternoon)...

Wind and rain are in store for Southcentral beginning tonight and
lasting through Friday. A front associated with a low centered
over Bristol Bay will lift northward Thursday. Gusty
southeasterly winds are expected to begin this evening through the
usual areas including Passage Canal, Portage Valley, Turnagain
Arm, Anchorage Hillside, and Knik River Valley. By Thursday
morning, gusty southeasterly winds will spread across much of the
Anchorage Bowl and Mat Valley with sustained winds around 10-15
mph and gusts up to 35 mph as the low continues to track
northward. These winds are expected to diminish overnight Thursday
into early Friday.

Rain is the second half of this story. As this front lifts
northward, the northern Gulf coast will see the bulk of the rain
beginning this evening and eventually tapering off by Friday
morning. Given the southeasterly winds, rain in Anchorage may be
delayed due to downsloping, though thinking the rain will fill in
late tonight. Areas farther north including the western Susitna
Valley will see continued rainfall as upsloping enhances
precipitation along the mountains. By Friday, the windy
conditions should diminish across much of the area though cloudy
skies and scattered rain showers are likely to continue through
the end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Saturday)

A circulation south of Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will sweep a lot
of rainfall and gusty winds between 25 to 40 mph over much of
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay tonight through at least Thursday
night. This same system will bring more rain across the region
and winds gusting to 30 mph over the lower Kuskokwim Valley
between Thursday and Thursday night. Computer models favor
weakening this circulation between Thursday afternoon and Thursday
evening as it transitions into a surface trough trekking
northeastward across the Alaska Range into early Friday morning.
Over Bethel and Kusko Delta, clouds and showers passing through
this area will continue moving eastward and across the area
through at least Friday afternoon. Another circulation from the
Aleutians will either bring additional rainfall by Friday night
along Bristol Bay or maybe not, depending on the location and
motion of this expected system. Overall, anticipate a very wet
pattern through the next day or two, with the potential of more
rain entering the forecast area between Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Saturday)

Hourly observations from this morning through this afternoon
along the eastern Aleutians, buoy 46075 and AKPEN are responding
to the motion of a large scale circulation south of Cold Bay. The
buoy 46075 recorded sustained small craft winds with a peak wind
of 39kt from this afternoon, while other observation sites
continue to pick up gusty winds in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Heavy
rainfall and strong gale are expected mainly over south of AKPEN
and Bristol Bay tonight through at least Thursday night. Further
west, a developing circulation from western Aleutians will bring
a lot of moisture and rainfall across the Aleutians in the coming
days. On Friday night, a broad frontal system from the northwest
Pacific will usher more rain, and the potential for small crafts-
gale conditions are feasible. For now, will monitor this situation
and provide updates in the next package. As a result, anticipate a
very wet pattern and elevated winds across the Aleutians through
most of the period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

By Saturday, a strong low pushes into the Bering Sea, bringing
gale force winds to the coastal areas of the Western/Central
Aleutian Chain and small craft elsewhere. Models are in
disagreement on the exact strength and location of this low,
but do agree on the general track as it travels eastward toward
Southwest Alaska. The Canadian tracks slightly more northeast
toward Chignik, whereas the GFS and EC are more in agreement
tracking it more toward Dutch Harbor. It looks like it then
travels to the Gulf by Monday, but there is uncertainty on both
the specific track and the strength of the winds over the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A strong low pushes into the Bering Sea on Sunday. Widespread
rainfall and gale force winds along the Aleutian Chain are
expected in association with this low. A low amplitude ridge out
ahead of the low moves over the Southwest region at this same
time, providing somewhat drier conditions, although the
possibility of rain can't be ruled out completely. This ridge
moves with the low and will be over Southcentral by Monday. By
Tuesday, the low will travel into the Southern Gulf, with the
heaviest rainfall confined to Kodiak Island and the Coastal areas.
Gale force winds are also possible for the Southcentral Coast and
Northern Gulf.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 125 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...KM