Gale Warning 461, NWS Anchorage, AK

962 
FZAK61 PAFC 280008
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-281245-
408 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 967 mb low at 57N 146W moves to 60N 147W at 990 mb Monday morning. 
This low then moves inland and dissipates Monday afternoon. A front 
approaches the southern Gulf of Alaska Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-281245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
408 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 31 ft. Showers with isolated thunderstorms.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-281245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
408 PM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Showers with
isolated thunderstorms.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

223 
FZAK61 PAFC 281157
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-290100-
357 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 mb low at 60N 145W moves onshore Monday afternoon. A front
arrives in the southern Gulf Tuesday morning and pushes north to
the coast Tuesday afternoon. A 972 mb low approaches the Gulf
Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ351-290100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-290100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 12 to 17 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

507 
FZAK61 PAFC 290001
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-291245-
401 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves into the southern Gulf Tue morning, strengthening 
along the coast by Tue evening. It diminishes onshore Wed morning.
Its associated low moves west of Kodiak Island by Wed evening at
approximately 975 mb.

$$

PKZ351-291245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
401 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft subsiding to 9 ft
after midnight.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft building to 18
ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-291245-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
401 PM AKDT Mon Sep 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SE 25 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

505 
FZAK61 PAFC 291124
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300115-
324 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves into the southern Gulf Tue morning, strengthening 
along the coast by Tue evening. It diminishes onshore Wed morning
as the associated low reaches 55N 157W at 970 mb. The low moves 
into Bristol Bay Thur morning as the next low approaches the Gulf
from the north Pacific. 

$$

PKZ351-300115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
324 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 10 to 18 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SE 30 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 to 20 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
324 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
521 AM AKDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Satellite imagery shows a strong, occluded cyclone rapidly
approaching the Gulf of Alaska this morning. ASCAT data shows
storm force winds in the cold sector to the south of the storm
center. Bouy data is currently showing gusts up to 45 kts
throughout the gulf, with wave heights up to 17 ft at buoys 001
and 085. The occluded front can be seen on the Middleton Island
radar bringing stratiform rain over coastal areas with showers
over the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl visible on the Kenai
radar. Over Southwest, radar indicates showers along the front
extending into the AKPEN and Bristol Bay region. Cold air aloft
that lead to snow over Bethel late Saturday night has been
replaced by warm air from the system in the Gulf. As a result,
precipitation over Southwest has transitioned to rain, although
snow is still possible over the higher elevations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in excellent agreement with the cyclone moving into
the Gulf this morning. There are slight disagreements on the
possible development of a triple point low to the east of Kodiak
along the occluded front; however, this should have little impact
to the forecast as the overall pressure and wind field remains
fairly uniform.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Low clouds
this morning are not expected to materialize into a ceiling.
Shower activity should taper off mid-morning as northerly surface
winds begin to pick up.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday Night)...

The well-advertised large and powerful low is on track this
morning. The low is near or has reached peak intensity as measured
by the central pressure reaching its lowest point. However, the
forecast hurricane force winds north of the low are not yet
expected until later on this morning. These winds will form as the
easterly flow ahead of the occluded front gets squeezed up against
the coastal mountains, creating a narrowing corridor off the coast
that the strengthening winds will need to pass through. The
primary low will continue to track nearly due north, moving into
Prince William Sound tonight, while its forward speed slows. A
secondary low may develop west of the main low center, off the
coast of Kodiak Island, which will allow the aforementioned
corridor of strongest winds to extend westward to near the Barren
Islands. The winds will rapidly weaken as the weakening low
approaches this afternoon, so the hurricane force winds are only
expected to impact the waters off the North Gulf Coast for the
morning hours today.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain have begun on Kodiak Island
while rainfall rates are increasing across the northern Gulf and
eastern Kenai Peninsula as the mountains help lift the copious
moisture and squeeze out heavier rain. Once the low moves inland
Monday morning, the southerly return flow behind the low will
keep periods of heavy rain ongoing, particularly across the
northern and eastern Prince William Sound on Monday. That
southerly flow will allow for rain and high elevation snow to
develop along the mountains into the Copper River Basin on Monday
as well.

On Monday night, the remnant surface low and associated upper
level low will be absorbed into the upper level trough over
Southwest Alaska. As this happens, and an upper level shortwave
moves into the area as well, off-and-on rain is expected to
impact the Cook Inlet region. This timing is a bit later from
previous forecasts, which had most of the rain Monday afternoon.
Nevertheless, most areas around Cook Inlet should hold at one
tenth of an inch or less of rain.

Then on Tuesday, there will be a brief break in the action ahead
of the next storm, with weak ridging and a cooler air mass moving
into Southcentral. Thus, we currently expect much of the daylight
hours to feature a mix of clouds and sun for all inland locations,
while easterly flow keeps coastal locations under the clouds.
Meanwhile, the next storm in this "parade of storms" that will
impact Southcentral will already be racing across the Gulf. The
parent low will track northwestward south and west of Kodiak
Island. However, its leading front will impact much of the coast,
reaching Kodiak Island Tuesday evening, and spreading across
Southcentral Tuesday night. The front will also be strong
regarding the winds, and storm force winds are in the forecast for
much of the western Gulf late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Thus, the break in the action will be brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 3)...

An upper level shortwave continues to push westward across the
Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta this morning. As a result, a few rain
showers were occurring this morning with any threat diminishing
by the afternoon. Some sleet has been mixing in at times with this
shower activity in places like Kipnuk and Toksook Bay with
temperatures in the mid 30s. Bethel is on the edge of a stratus
deck that may occasionally result in lower ceilings/fog at times
this morning. The flow is expected to become more northeasterly
off the land late today and into tonight. This is a drying flow
which will result in gradual clearing for the region overnight.
850mb temperatures won't be all that cold for Monday morning
(generally 2-5 degrees Celsius) keeping generally mid 30s for low
temperatures across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Yukon-
Kuskokwim Delta.

For Bristol Bay today, a piece of upper level energy and a surface
trough are expected to make it over the Aleutian/southern Alaska
Range and bring a quick shot of rain to Dillingham and King Salmon
later this morning into the early afternoon. This surface trough
will drift southward and pivot over the AKPEN keeping areas from
Pilot Point to Point Heiden in the threat for rain for much of the
day and into the overnight hours ending from north to south.

For Tuesday, much of Southwest will remain quiet as the area will
be in weak synoptic flow aloft. This will lead to mainly dry
conditions for many areas.

Our attention then turns to the next storm system that will be
approaching the southern AKPEN Tuesday evening. Basically, expect
a return to unsettled conditions with rain and increasing winds
beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday. There is
expected to be a downsloping component to this system as well,
 but expect leeward side of the mountains to be drier with the
windward side to be wetter due to upslope.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3)...

Much of the Bering Sea and the Aleutian Chain remains under the
influence of northerly flow. This will continue to aid in cold air
from the Arctic and Siberia to flow over the relatively warm
Bering Sea waters continuing the cumulus cloud development with
occasional showers underneath. The eastern Bering and Pribilofs
will actually experience warming 850mb temperatures tonight
leading to more widespread stratiform rain instead of the
convective variety before another shot of colder air moves back in
Monday morning.

A frontal system will graze the western Aleutians and Pacific side
marine zones with small craft winds and chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday.

Our attention then turns to the next storm system that will be
approaching the southern AKPEN/eastern Aleutians Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday with storm force winds, increased wave
heights and periods of rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Tuesday through Thursday)...

A strong North Pacific low moves through the Western Gulf into
the Eastern Bering for Thu. The track and development of the low
vary somewhat as it moves over the Alaska Peninsula, but the
system spreads widespread gale force and local storm force winds
over the Western Gulf. It will be gustier around Kodiak Island and
Shelikof Strait on Wed, and will continue through Thu.

For the Bering and Aleutians, the remains of a front over the
Western Aleutians spreads small craft with local gale force winds
through early Wed when it moves into the North Pacific. A Gulf of
Alaska low moves into Bristol Bay Wed and continues into the
eastern Bering for Thu. The track and development of the low vary,
but widespread gale force winds move with the front into the
eastern Bering slowly diminishing Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Cold air pooling over the North Pacific will generally maintain a
broad upper level trough across the Central North Pacific. This
will be the spawning ground for strong surface lows as strong
upper short waves round the base of the trough and head north
toward the Alaska Peninsula. The first of these strong surface
cyclones pushes north toward the AK Peninsula Tuesday night into
Wednesday and slowly weakens over the eastern Bering Sea early
Thursday. This system along with the front will bring very strong
winds and moderate to heavy rains, especially from the Alaska
Peninsula to the northern Gulf Coast. The models struggle with the
timing and intensity of the next system developing under
favorable jet support Thursday/Friday. That said, it does appear
that this low track will be further east. If so, then the brunt of
the wind and rain will favor the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral,
and Bristol Bay Thursday night through early Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning...119, 120.
Storm Warning...351, 352, 139, 130, 131, 132.
Gale Warning...138, 137, 136, 150, 125.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/BG/SEB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1244 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 73 SE CHENEGA           59.44N 146.33W
09/27/2020  M81 MPH          VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   ASOS

            REPORTED AT MIDDLETON ISLAND.

0513 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KODIAK                  57.80N 152.39W
09/27/2020  M59 MPH          KODIAK ISLAND      AK   ASOS

            REPORTED AT KODIAK.

&&

GJERDINGEN