Gale Warning 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

920 
FZAK62 PAFC 051143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060100-
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb low moves to 55N 169W Sun afternoon. Its front moves 
across the Eastern Aleutians through Sun afternoon. A new low of 
986 mb will be at 52N 166W Sun morning. This low will deepen to 
981 mb Sun afternoon and move to 55N 169W.

$$

PKZ411-060100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt becoming NE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

009 
FZAK62 PAFC 052351
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-061345-
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb North Pacific low near 53N 161W moves to 54N 169W Sat 
night, then merges with a second low. The second low moves to 54N
168W at 985 mb Sun morning then to 63N 165W by Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-061345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
351 PM AKDT Sat Sep 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S wind 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

800 
FZAK62 PAFC 061110
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-070115-
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 mb low at 52N 166W moves to the Pribilof Islands Sun 
evening and deepens to 984 mb. This low will move to 59N 166W  
Mon morning with an intensity of 990 mb. By Mon night the low will
be at Norton Sound at 999 mb.

$$

PKZ411-070115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-070115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-070115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-070115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
310 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

066 
FZAK62 PAFC 062359
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-071345-
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 56N 170W moves to 64N 165W Mon afternoon at 995 mb 
before moving inland. A front moves across the Western Aleutians 
through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 15 kt becoming S in the evening. Seas 5 to 10 
ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-071345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
359 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

481 
FZAK62 PAFC 071144
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-080145-
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 987 mb low at 61N 155W moves to 64N 165W Tue morning at 1006 mb,
before moving inland. A front moves across the Western Aleutians 
through Tue afternoon, reaching the western Bering and Rat Islands
by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-080145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 AM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

824 
FZAK62 PAFC 072350
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-081400-
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1003 mb Norton Sound low moves into Northern Alaska for Wed
afternoon. Its front dissipates over the Northern Bering for Wed
afternoon. A 1001 mb Kamchatka low moves to 55N 167E at 1008 mb 
Wed afternoon. Its front swings across the Aleutians into the 
Western Bering by Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-081400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 PM AKDT Mon Sep 7 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 AM AKDT Fri Sep 4 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Yesterday evening, lightning strikes were detected over Point
MacKenzie and east of Cordova. There is a weak upper level low
over Southcentral with embedded minor shortwaves. Which is just
unstable enough to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms.
The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island continue to ping into
shower activity early this morning. There is a minor ridge over
Sand Point, the Eastern Bering and Bristol Bay. There is another
and more robust low near the Seward Peninsula in addition to the
closed low north of Attu Island. There is a 150 knot jet core also
near Attu.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There has been some run to run continuity issues with the
NAM...GFS and Canadian. Very Confident that Saturday will be the
driest day for the Anchorage Bowl this holiday weekend. However,
there are some wholesale differences with the intensity and the
placement of the next low to hit SW AK and this will have
implications for what happens with the winds for Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...At 853z the cig at 4,200 feet was observed at PANC. On the
Kenai radar there were still isolated showers over Point MacKenzie
and Turnagain Arm. Turnagain arm winds develop again today but
they don't look as strong as yesterday. So the current thinking is
that winds will be light and variable at PANC. High confidence
that the weather is going to be VFR on Saturday (all day).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A broad cold upper low continues over Southcentral today and the
threat of showers. Cloud breaks combined with upper forcing may be
enough to kick off a few thunderstorms over the Kenai Peninsula,
Copper River Basin, and Susitna Valley this afternoon and early
evening. Drier and sunnier conditions are expected across the
region as ridging builds in on Saturday. A developing North
Pacific low and associated front heading toward the Alaska
Peninsula on Saturday will bring strong easterly winds to the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island with increased chances of rain
Saturday afternoon/night. There is still some uncertainty with the
speed and positioning of these features. So stay tuned for
updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Friday through Monday)...

A brief period of ridging over the eastern Bering will lead to
clearer skies and warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday. The
exception to this is over the western Alaska Range, where an upper
level low over Southcentral could provide lift for showers over
the mountains on Friday. The pattern is expected to change first
over the AKPEN on Saturday as a tightly packed north Pacific low
moves into the area. There is some uncertainty in the model
guidance as to the strength and the east/west track of the low as
it pushes north into the area. Regardless, frontal precipitation
and wind is expected to reach the AKPEN Saturday afternoon. Rain
and gusty winds are expected to then spread across Southwest by
Sunday as the tightly packed low gets absorbed by a much broader
system in the north Pacific. The large low complex is then
expected to move north through Monday, with widespread rain
expected over southwest as it tracks north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Sunday morning)...

An elongated area of low pressure over the western Bering will
continue to bring widespread rain from Adak to Shemya through
Saturday before moving south within the broad trough present over
the north Pacific. Meanwhile, high pressure over the eastern
Bering should lead to calmer seas and clearer skies through
Saturday when a compact north Pacific low is expected to move over
the eastern Aleutians. There is still some uncertainty in the
track and strength of the initial, compact low and what influence
it will have as a broad region of low pressure moves over the
region on Sunday. Regardless, Gale force winds, higher seas and
widespread rain are expected over the central and eastern Bering
through Monday as the system tracks north.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

There is increasing confidence that a gale force low will move
northward across the central/eastern Aleutians on Sunday. Storm
force winds and waves are a possibility with this system as there
is still model discrepancy with the strength of the storm. Gales
are likely to continue with this low as it moves into the northern
Bering on Monday but should dissipate Tuesday. The front
associated with the aforementioned low will enter the northwestern
Gulf Sunday. As it propagates northward across the Gulf into
Monday, gale to storm force winds are expected before it
dissipates Monday night. Models are picking up on a small craft
advisory front entering the western Aleutians on Tuesday and
moving to the east into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through
Thursday)...

The amplified pattern will continue through Wednesday. A large
area of low pressure over the eastern Bering will bring widespread
rain and winds to much of the Bering Sea, the Aleutian Chain and
across the Gulf and Southcentral on Monday. Rain will continue
into Tuesday for much of the area as that low moves northward. An
upper level ridge continues to strengthen over the North
Pacific/eastern Gulf, at this time, which will begin to interact
with the trough digging down from the Bering and into the North
Pacific. This will set up an opportunity for an "atmospheric
river", which is a fetch of deep moisture. This will make its way
into the southwestern Gulf on Tuesday and should start
precipitation through Thursday. However, model discrepancies still
haven't resolved if the moisture will be over Southcentral or if
it will get shunted to the southeastern part of the state. All in
all, expect a wet and windy, fall-like pattern, as we move further
into September.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 352 150 155 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK