Gale Warning 421, NWS Anchorage, AK

645 
FZAK61 PAFC 282337
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-291330-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front enters the western Gulf Sat morning and moves into the 
northern Gulf and weakens by Sun afternoon. A second front over 
the western Gulf late Sun morning associated with a 968 mb low in 
Bristol Bay spreads across the Gulf through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-291330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-291330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
337 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 5 to 8
ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

882 
FZAK61 PAFC 291141
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300100-
341 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front currently in the western Gulf moves into the northern Gulf 
and weakens by Sun afternoon. A second front over the western Gulf 
late Sun morning associated with a 965 mb low in Bristol Bay spreads 
across the Gulf through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-300100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
341 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
341 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9
to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

540 
FZAK61 PAFC 292345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-301330-
345 PM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front currently in the western Gulf moves into the northern 
Gulf and weakens by Sun afternoon. A second front over the western
Gulf late Sun morning associated with a 964 mb low in Bristol Bay
spreads across the Gulf through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-301330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-301330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

031 
FZAK61 PAFC 301156
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-310130-
356 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front currently in northern Gulf moves inland this afternoon. A 
second front moves into the western Gulf this afternoon associated 
with a 964 mb low in Bristol Bay spreads across the Gulf through Mon.

$$

PKZ351-310130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-310130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 9 to 14
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

833 
FZAK61 PAFC 302345
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-311315-
345 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front across the central Gulf moves into the eastern Gulf 
Sunday night and persists until dissipating Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-311315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
345 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-311315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
345 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

962 
FZAK61 PAFC 311141
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-010130-
341 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front remains across the Gulf before dissipating Tue evening.

$$

PKZ351-010130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
341 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ352-010130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
341 AM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

957 
FZAK61 PAFC 010001
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-010115-
401 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front remains across the Gulf before dissipating Tue evening.

$$

PKZ351-010115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
401 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ352-010115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
401 PM AKDT Mon Aug 31 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
850 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active pattern is set up across Southcentral Alaska this
afternoon with a low in the southern Gulf. This is keeping a
showery pattern for the region with the last few easterly waves
moving in as the low tracks towards the eastern Gulf. Looking
westward, a strengthening low is moving moving into the western
Bering this afternoon centered near Shemya. This system has
already produced a few lightning strikes early this afternoon
south of the western Aleutians. South to southeasterly gale force
winds and widespread rainfall accompany this system as the
associated front pushes over the western to central Bering and
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The deterministic models (ECMWF/GFS/NAM) are narrowing in a
solution with the remnants of Typhoon Bavi. It looks like the
low center will intensify as it tracks east across the Alaska
Peninsula on Sunday to near eastern Bristol Bay, perhaps far
western Gulf Sunday afternoon. Forecast package will be weighted
toward the 12z GFS model.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The radars at Middleton Island (PAIH) and Kenai (PAHG) have been
active today, especially over the Gulf Of Alaska. There is a
closed upper level low over the Gulf Of Alaska with numerous
shortwaves embedded in its circulation. The most potent shortwave
is over the southern GOA and is headed to SE AK. The little minor
shortwaves over Southcentral are just strong enough to sustain
isolated convection...keeping the atmosphere over Southcentral a
whee bit unstable. Just upstream, there is a minor ridge over the
Alaska Peninsula which will shunt the gulf energy eastward this
forecast period. Friday will be the driest day this forecast
package. All the while, a new mature low is churning over the
Western Aleutians and is expected to track eastward. The leading
edge of the precipitation shield will impact Kodiak Saturday. This
storm also has a tight pressure gradient associated with it and
the jet core steering this front will have a magnitude of 170
knots. Gusty winds will materialize at Whittier/Passage Canal,
Seward/Resurrection Bay, Turnagain Arm, Hillside and across the
Gulf Of Alaska. Stay tuned for more details. If the track of the
low adjusts it will definitely impact where hazardous winds could
develop. Very confident that unsettled conditions will be
widespread on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday
through Sunday)...

A few showers will persist through this evening as low level
cyclonic flow on the back side of a low pressure system persists
tonight. Showers will decrease as we head into Friday as an upper
level ridge moves towards the area. This will help to create
patchy fog for portions of the YK delta region. Friday will
generally be dry, however a weak area of low pressure will linger
north of the Bethel area which will kick off some showers mainly
over the Kuskokwim mountains.

Saturday a warm front will bring in rain and increasing east to
southeast winds. As we look towards Sunday rain will continue as
the front weakens over the land. An approached low pressure
system may bring stronger winds to the area and more rain, but
uncertainty on track of this system leads to lower forecast
confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Sunday)...

Northwest flow will dominate the eastern Bering Sea and Aleutians
through Friday with generally dry weather, some patchy fog is
possible as an upper level ridge moves across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians through Friday morning. A low pressure system near
Shemya will gain strength and move east across the Aleutian chain
Friday and Saturday with gusty east to southeast flow and rain
along a frontal system ahead of the low. By Sunday the remnant
moisture and energy from Typhoon Bavi will interact with the upper
low over the western Aleutians this will allow for cyclogenesis
to occur with a strong low pressure moving across the central and
eastern Aleutians Sunday. Strong winds will be common with this
low pressure system with Gale to Storm Force winds along the
central and eastern Aleutians and eventually towards the AKPEN.
Some uncertainty still exists with this low pressure, but models
coming into better agreement, thus forecast confidence is
increasing.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Model confidence has increased with a low approaching Bristol Bay
Sunday afternoon. The strength of this storm will produce storm
force winds, along the southern periphery of the low, south of the
eastern Aleutians. There is some uncertainty beyond this, with
the potential track up towards the northeast and gales across the
western Gulf Monday. After that, a fairly benign wind pattern is
expected across the Gulf and the Bering Sea for the remainder of
the forecast period. All in all, there will be plenty of
refinement associated with the latter part of this system as we
head towards the weekend, but mariners in the area should pay
close attention.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

A fairly active pattern is expected into the middle of next week.
A strong upper low ripping across the north Pacific Sunday moves
over the Southern Mainland Sunday evening then weakens. In its
wake numerous short waves will ripple eastward across the Alaska
Peninsula and Southern Mainland. The General mean position of the
nearly zonal upper jet remains over the northeast Pacific. After
the remnant of Typhoon Bavi makes landfall Sunday the pattern will
become more showery with support of upper short waves.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 170 173 175 177 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AH/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/BC