Gale Warning 419, NWS Anchorage, AK

590 
FZAK62 PAFC 272335
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281445-
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 990 mb low at 52N 173E moves to 51N 179E at 986 mb Fri afternoon
and then remains nearly stationary through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt this evening becoming E 10 to 20 kt. 
Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

932 
FZAK62 PAFC 281149
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290115-
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 985 mb low at 52N 176E moves to 53N 178W at 982 mb Sat 
morning and remains nearly stationary through Sat afternoon. It 
merges with a 966 mb low at 53N 168W by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-290115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 AM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. 
Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

230 
FZAK62 PAFC 282344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291315-
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 984 mb low at 51N 179E moves to 53N 179W at 980 mb by Sat
afternoon. It merges with a 968 mb low at 53N 168W by Sun 
morning and then moves inland near 59N 160W at 967 mb by Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 PM AKDT Fri Aug 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

511 
FZAK62 PAFC 291149
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300130-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 53N 179W deepens to 978 mb by Sun morning and 
remains nearly stationary. It merges with a 968 mb low at 53N 168W
by Sun morning and then moves inland near 59N 160W at 965 mb by 
Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-300130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
349 AM AKDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 6 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Wed Aug 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern is slowly starting to change across the state. The 2
primary features this morning are a parent low just west of
Western AK and a vertically stacked low over the Northern Gulf.
First, the low out west continues to push precipitation and
moisture over SW AK. It produced some dense fog this morning over
Bristol Bay, which have now yielded to a fairly healthy band of
showers. The low over the Gulf of AK continues to produce showers
and some gusty winds over the coastal sites. This low will start
to lift inland this afternoon leading to more widespread showers.
Another weak wave continues to move over the Copper River Basin
towards the Susitna Valley courtesy of the broad cyclonic flow.
The rest of the Bering Sea remains quiet today with just some
patchy low stratus. By the time you get to the Western Aleutians,
the next front is just starting to push some steady SE winds into
that area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models remain in fair agreement through the
short term and forecast confidence is moderate to high through
Fri. Some of the finer details will center around heavier
convective showers and fog development Thu AM. Hi-res models and
hand edits were generally utilized for those minimal changes.
Please see the Long Term forecast discussion for more details on
model discrepancies coming into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions should persist through most of the TAF
period. Ceilings could briefly reach into the MVFR range in any
rain showers. Southeast winds look likely this evening as a
coastal ridge pushes into the Turnagain Arm. The exact start time
could vary by an hour or two. These winds should be fairly short-
lived as the down-inlet gradient increases overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A wet pattern is on tap. The longwave pattern features a high
amplitude trough that spans from the Gulf Of Alaska to NE Russia.
There are multiple shortwaves circulating in the feature in the
middle to upper atmosphere. At the surface, there is a decaying
low near Montague Island, a surface low near Kodiak and another
surface low over Bristol Bay. This complex of disturbances is
going to bring additional moisture to portions of Southcentral
tonight and tomorrow. Friday a weak ridge will move into the
region with the ridge axis over Kodiak. It is a dirty looking
ridge but it should bring a brief break in precipitation activity
for Southcentral. Temperatures in the Mat-Su Valleys, the
Anchorage metro area and portions of the Kenai Peninsula will
increase a few degrees on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A vertically stacked low over Bristol Bay will move over the
AKPEN tonight and move southeast of the area. Showers will
continue for much of Southwest Alaska tonight and taper off early
Thursday morning over most areas. Showers will flare back up on
Thursday mainly over the higher terrain, however a weak area of
low pressure in the mid and upper levels will linger north of
Bethel, This feature will enhance showers Thursday mainly over
portions of the YK delta. Friday morning expect fog to develop
over portions of the YK delta with light winds and a ridge moving
over the area. Saturday a warm front will approach Southwest
Alaska this will bring increasing winds and rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Saturday)...

Low pressure over the eastern Bering Sea will continue to produce
showers near Cold Bay and Sand Point before tapering off Thursday
morning as the low pressure moves east. A transitory ridge will
cross the Bering and Aleutians tonight through Friday morning
bringing areas of stratus and patchy fog. Behind this ridge a low
pressure system west of Shemya will move eastward bringing
increasing winds and rain across the Western Aleutians through
Thursday. Friday and Saturday the winds and rain will spread east
through the central and eastern Aleutians. There are some model
differences as this low moves east the NAM, EC and Canadian models
were in best agreement with the GFS a bit farther south than other
models, leaned more towards NAM and EC solutions.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

A North Pacific low moves across the Aleutians through Saturday.
Model confidence during this timeframe has remained consistent and
gale force winds are expected along the front in the eastern
Bering/Aleutians. Confidence begins to waiver Sunday morning. This
complex system spins up another low somewhere between 957 and 968
mb. Depending on the strength of this low will determine if winds
could potentially reach storm force or even hurricane force per
some guidance. As of now, high end gales are being forecasted.
Placement varies from over Dutch Harbor to just south of Saint
Paul with various locations in between not outside the realm of
possibility. The track of this storm through Monday remains highly
variable landing somewhere between the northeastern Bering or
crossing the Alaska Peninsula. All in all, there will be plenty
of refinement associated with this system as we go through the
week, but mariners in the area should pay close attention.

For the Western Gulf, timing of a front associated with a low
over the Aleutians is in better agreement today, expected Saturday
morning. Confidence is limited in regards to strength and
progression across the Gulf. Small craft to gale force winds are
possible as it propagates towards Prince William Sound late
Saturday into Sunday. Behind this front, confidence is reduced as
the track of the low, and its strength, remain in question. If
the storm tracks across the Alaska Peninsula, it could bring up to
storm force winds into the Gulf Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Tuesday)...

A large area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the Bering
Sea on Sunday as the energy from the post-tropical remnants of
Typhoon Bavi merge with an upper level low in the Bering Sea.
There is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact placement and
track of this low. However, there is a high confidence that high
end gale force winds are to be expected with a moderate confidence
of storm force winds south of the low center.

Due to the high degree of uncertainty with respect to the track
of this low, an ensemble forecast methodology was used with
blending the ECMWF/GFS/GEM solutions.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 177 178 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PJS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/EJD