Gale Warning 413, NWS Anchorage, AK

721 
FZAK51 PAFC 312350
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011300-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb North Pacific low moves 65 nm South of Seward at 1002 
mb by Sat afternoon. Several troughs move over the Gulf through 
Sun afternoon. A new front approaches the Western Gulf for Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011300-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011300-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011300-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011300-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011300-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011300-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011300-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011300-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011300-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011300-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011300-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level ridge continues to hold firm over the eastern
half of the state. It has now merged with the ridge moving up the
Western U.S. and Canada. Sea stratus continues to be trapped under
the ridge along the North central Coast of the Gulf, affecting
places like Valdez and Cordova. Hazy conditions from elevated smoke
continues to hang around Southcentral, with light flow from high
pressure allowing it to stay for now. It's a different story on
the surface with respect to flow, as the surface high has setup
over of the Northeastern Gulf. This has induced a pressure
gradient across Southcentral, causing pressure gradient driven
winds like the Turnagain Winds and Copper River winds.

Low pressure has moved into Southwest Alaska as expected,
providing rain showers for that region. It is becoming more
stationary in nature as high pressure to the east holds it in
place. Much of the Bering Sea is under west to northwesterly flow
and with mostly cloudy conditions. Interestingly, wind shear is
evident across the Central and Eastern Aleutians by observing
transverse banding on the lee side of the islands via satellite.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are doing fairly well, however they are continuing to have
trouble figuring out what to do with the low in Southwest Alaska.
Models typically have a hard time resolving interactions between
incoming lows interacting with strong high pressure and that is
the case here. The GFS shunts the low off to the north, merging it
with troughing stretching down the West Coast from the Arctic. The
ECMWF and NAM take the low southeast and merge it with a low in
the Gulf of Alaska. All this is happening just 48 hours out
Saturday, so not too much confidence with this low. Meanwhile,
models are handling the rest of the features well, so high
confidence in the forecast otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Turnagain arm winds will
remain over the airfield until the early morning hours tomorrow.

&&

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Fri
through Sun)...

Weekend weather for Southcentral is expected to be stark change
from the mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures, and calm weather
in place throughout the week. The high pressure ridge that brought
the nice summer weather will continue to break down and move east
as it interacts with two upper level lows. Expecting a more fall-
like pattern change with a broad longwave trough taking up
residence over Alaska through the forecast period. High
temperatures are expected to steadily fall as cloud cover
increases through Sunday.

On Friday a N-S oriented front extending off of a low over
Southwest AK will continue to bring rainfall from Kodiak Island
up into the Western Alaska Range. Southerly flow aloft over the
Gulf of Alaska, and weak pulses of upper level energy should
bring light rain and drizzle to the coastline Fri morning. The
main system that will bring cooler weather and more widespread
rain to Southcentral will arrive in the eastern Gulf Sat morning.
This system will take up residence in the central Gulf through
Sun, with upper level shortwaves bringing showers across the
region through Sunday.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The rainy pattern continues for Southwest Alaska, with a secondary
trough moving inland this evening. This bring more continuous
showers onshore first in the Kuskokwim Delta but eventually
spreading to Bristol Bay as well. The parent low over the Bering
Sea continues to weaken, and gusty winds coming off the Aleutian
Range are expected to diminish overnight and then remain light
through the weekend. Showers will begin to break apart across the
region on Saturday, leading to a brief break in precipitation, but
by Sunday a new low pressure system approaching from the west will
push another front with more rain onshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low over the Eastern Bering will remain in place and continue to
deteriorate, keeping most of the activity east of the Pribilofs
for the next day or so. On Friday, a weak shortwave ridge will
move across the Aleutians, keeping winds light with minimal
showers for a short time. By Saturday, a low pressure system will
move into the Western Pacific and bring a front across the
Aleutians, with accompanying rain. This system will be fairly weak
as well, so winds will remain below gale force across the region.
The low pressure center moves into the central Bering on Sunday,
keeping weather unsettled across the entire area through the end
of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3-5: Sunday-Tuesday)...

Low pressure over the Gulf weakens late Sunday. Meanwhile, out
west, a low positioned over the Pribilofs on Sunday will keep
widespread rainfall and small craft advisory level winds, with
gales staying south of the forecast area. This system will weaken
as it works its way inland through Monday afternoon, keeping
stronger winds across the Gulf through Wednesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, models are hinting at the next low beginning
to move over the western Bering and Aleutians, but the position
and intensity are still the biggest question at this time.
However, winds are expected to stay below gale force with this
next system.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4-7: Monday-Thursday)...

A weakening low positioned over the Alaska Peninsula Monday
afternoon will keep a showery pattern across most of southern
mainland Alaska through the middle of next week. However, timing
of precipitation is still a bit uncertain as models are struggling
with this pattern. Expect generally cooler temperatures through
mid-week.

Over the Bering, models begin to diverge with the position of a
low as it moves eastward Wednesday. The biggest question is
whether this low will ride along the Aleutians, bringing another
round of rainfall to Southwest Alaska, or whether this system will
keep a track farther south moving into the North Pacific through
Thursday. For now, a chance of rain will remain in the forecast
until models come into better agreement for late next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...LF
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH