Gale Warning 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

315 
FZAK52 PAFC 292343
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-301300-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb 295 nm west of Saint Paul moves to 50 nm south of 
Kipnuk at 1006 mb for Fri afternoon. A 999 mb low remains nearly 
stationary as its front moves over the western and central 
Aleutians by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-301300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. From
Chirikof Island E, S wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. 
Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. From
Chirikof Island E, S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-301300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-301300-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-301300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-301300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 
ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-301300-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-301300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-301300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-301300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-301300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-301300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-301300-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-301300-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-301300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Patchy
fog. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-301300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-301300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-301300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKDT Wed Jul 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

363 
FZAK52 PAFC 301144
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-310045-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low 170 nm west of Mekoryuk moves to 20 nm west of
Mekoryuk at 1003 mb by Friday morning and moves inland Fri 
afternoon. A new 995 mb low moves to 165 nm northwest of Shemya 
Saturday morning. Its front moves over the western and central 
Aleutians by Fri afternoon through Saturday morning.

$$

PKZ150-310045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-310045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-310045-
Bristol Bay-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-310045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-310045-
Unalaska Bay-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-310045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-310045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-310045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-310045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-310045-
Adak to Kiska-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-310045-
Kiska to Attu-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-310045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-310045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-310045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-310045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 AM AKDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 PM AKDT Tue Jul 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Upper level ridging is currently over Southwest AK extending
north from the Pacific. It is building into Southcentral AK,
making for some more fair weather for Southcentral AK. As such,
sea breezes and local fog are about all that's going on today. A
deep upper level low in the Arctic is sweeping a front across
Interior AK, flattening the ridge over us and allowing some cirrus
to work its way through Southcentral AK. That's about it.

Out in the Bering, sea stratus/fog continues to be an issue. A
well wrapped, mature is located in the Western Aleutians. This low
is sending a front through the Central Aleutians. The low itself
is dynamically weak and its front correspondingly so. So, just
small craft advisory winds and rain with this front.

Overall, a quiet weather pattern continues for our forecast area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good synoptic agreement through the short term. Some
divergence exists in low placement over Southwest AK on Friday.
However, there is increasing agreement that upper level ridging
from the east will hold this low in place over Southwest Alaska at
least through Friday. Beyond that, models diverge quickly. So,
high confidence in the forecast through Thursday with increasing
confidence for Friday. Transitioning to longer term, model
confidence decreases quickly.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A light sea breeze will
continue into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Wed
through Fri)...

Beautiful summer weather is in store for Southcentral through
Thursday night as a ridge continues to build overhead today.
Expecting sunny skies, warm temperatures and an overall drying
trend before a pattern shift Friday morning. The main weather
story for Wednesday and Thursday will be surface winds. Strong
diurnal heating will bring in some brisk sea breezes Wednesday and
Thursday over coast areas. Thursday morning a coastal ridge is
expected to build along the northern Gulf Coast prior to the next
frontal system on Friday. Low pressure over the Alaskan interior
and Bering Sea should create a strong gradient for gusty winds
through the mountain passes and into areas like the Turnagain Arm
and Copper River Basin.

Friday morning the pattern will begin to change as an upper level
low tries to push east out of the Bering. Models have been
trending towards a slower propagation of this system due to the
strength of the North American Ridge. As a result, areas like the
Anchorage Bowl, Copper River Basin, and eastern Prince William
Sound are a little drier than previous model runs. However,
models do agree on a N-S oriented front arriving at Kodiak Island
and extending up into the western Alaska Range on Friday morning.
The eastern Kenai Peninsula will also likely begin to see some
rain by midday on Friday. Areas that don't receive rain will still
likely see an increase in cloud cover due to southerly flow, so
expecting slightly cooler temperatures across Southwest on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level ridge will keep the warm temperatures and dry
conditions across the Southwest mainland through early Wednesday.
Overnight clearing and weak onshore flow will allow for patchy fog
and low stratus to develop along the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim
Delta coasts for Wednesday morning before a pattern shift moves in
for the afternoon hours.

A frontal system associated with a low in the Bering will move
over the Southwest coast Wednesday afternoon, bringing the next
chance for widespread rainfall, along with southerly flow. This
system will continue to spread farther eastward through Thursday.
Coastal areas could easily see an inch of rainfall throughout this
event as the front stalls over the area, while inland locations
could see about half of an inch of rainfall. By Friday, the front
continues to break down, allowing for scattered showers to
persists across the region through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A vertically stacked low near Shemya bringing small craft advisory
winds and widespread rains will be the main weather feature to
track over the next few days. As this system continues to track
into the central Bering for Wednesday, another low develops just
south of the central Aleutians, which will help enhance the winds
and rainfall extending from the central Aleutians and Bering to
the Alaska Peninsula through Wednesday evening. Strong southerly
gap winds are expected as a together pressure gradient sets up
between this low pressure system in the Bering with ridging over
the Southwest mainland. Expect widespread rain to continue along
the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN, with areas along the southern
chain receiving over an inch of rainfall though Thursday as the
front pushes into the Southwest coast.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

Bering/Aleutians

High pressure exits Bristol Bay Sun. A South Kamchatka low moves
into the Central Bering by Sun. Confidence is good for Easterly
small craft winds and waves over the Northern Bering through Sun,
and Westerly small craft winds with local gales over the Western
and Central Aleutians Fri night and Sat, moving into the Eastern
Aleutians by Sun.

Gulf of Alaska

A North Pacific low moves into the North-central Gulf for Sun.
Confidence is fair for Easterly small craft winds and waves to
spread across the North Gulf Coastal zones for Sat and Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday through Tuesday)...

As we enter the long term this weekend, upper level ridging
appears to hold in place over the eastern half of the state nosing
in from Interior Canada is it often does in the summer. Meanwhile,
low pressure exists along the West Coast, though models are having
a very difficult time resolving this low. The ECMWF moves this
low southeast towards a low in the Gulf, while the GFS literally
takes in the exact opposite direction and moves it north up the
West Coast. So, beyond high pressure over Southcentral and low
pressure on the West Coast we know very little of what will happen
for mainland AK over the weekend. We do however have confidence in
low pressure moving through the Western Bering, bringing rain,
clouds, and small craft advisory winds as it goes.

Going into next week, models progress the low across the Bering
Sea. Ridging pulls away to the northeast and longwave troughing
envelopes the entire forecast area. This pattern shift means a
cooler and wetter start to next week. For specific weather
systems, the models become increasingly divergent, leading to a
lower confidence forecast for particulars. Bottom line, expect
the nice weather we have been having to give way to cooler and
rainy conditions next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/BB