Gale Warning 410, NWS Anchorage, AK

108 
FZAK51 PAFC 222303
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231215-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1008 mb low 40 nm west of Middleton Island Wed afternoon moves 
to 30 nm southwest of Sitka at 1010 mb Thu afternoon and then 
inland by Thu evening. A new 1007 mb low forms 50 nm northeast of
Kodiak Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-231215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231215-
Resurrection Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231215-
Prince William Sound-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231215-
Port Valdez-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231215-
Valdez Narrows-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231215-
Valdez Arm-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231215-
Passage Canal-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231215-
Barren Islands East-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231215-
Chiniak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231215-
Marmot Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231215-
Shelikof Strait-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-231215-
Kachemak Bay-
303 PM AKDT Wed Jul 22 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

407 
FZAK51 PAFC 231123
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240015-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1007 mb low in the eastern Gulf moves inland Thu night. A 1006
mb low 65 nm south of Homer Fri afternoon remains nearly 
stationary through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-240015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240015-
Resurrection Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240015-
Prince William Sound-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240015-
Port Valdez-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240015-
Valdez Narrows-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240015-
Valdez Arm-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240015-
Passage Canal-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
30 kt near Whittier this morning. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft 
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240015-
Barren Islands East-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240015-
Chiniak Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240015-
Marmot Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240015-
Shelikof Strait-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240015-
Kachemak Bay-
323 AM AKDT Thu Jul 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 PM AKDT Tue Jul 21 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The southern mainland lies in between systems this afternoon, as
the low that brought rainfall to Southcentral overnight continues
to head eastward across the Gulf towards the Panhandle, and our
next system seen in water vapor imagery heading towards the
southern portions of the state from the northern Bering (currently
the low is just north to northeast of Saint Matthew Island). This
latter feature is helping provide enough ascent (lift) for
showers to develop and move eastward, as seen in the Bethel
Doppler radar imagery loop.

In between these systems, several weak disturbances aloft are
seen in satellite imagery, with small scale associated lows
progressing eastward. Two good examples are a low just south of
Cape Newenham that was observed at 11 am, with a well-defined
cloud band extending southward (frontal-like feature), and a
similar low and associated meso-front south of Nunivak Island.
Both of these systems were completely missed by the numerical
suite. However, they are of little fan fare, aside from a possible
wind shift as they move ashore and some more robust but brief
breaks in the cloud cover as they pass by (likely due to
meso/smaller scale subsidence.

Finally, a low situated near Attu continues to provide sufficient
lift for showery type precipitation to affect the western
portions of the Aleutian chain and Bering Sea. These showers are
getting additional moisture of tropical origin (MIMIC water vapor
imagery shows origins from the northern Micronesia region),
allowing for cooling cloud tops and likely heavier bursts of
precipitation. This is over an unpopulated area though, with it
just affecting maritime interests.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in excellent agreement with their perspective
forecasts at the surface and aloft, with tight clustering seen at
both levels, similar to yesterday. This leads to a higher than
average confidence in the forecast details over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
period. Rainfall potential will increase after 22/12z, with at
least brief periods of close to MVFR conditions developing. For
now, opted for a scattered deck at 3000 feet and will await later
numerical guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Southcentral is in the middle of two systems today as a low
departs toward the Panhandle and an upper level trough currently
over Southwest Alaska approaches. This transition has increased
the pressure gradient over the Barren Islands and northern Kodiak
Island where gusty northwesterly winds are expected to continue
through Wednesday evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening over the Copper River Basin and the
western Kenai Peninsula as cloud cover dissipates and daytime
heating aids convection. Cloud cover will increase through the
evening hours into Wednesday morning as the leading edge of the
inbound system arrives from the northwest this evening. Models
have agreed that this low will track rather quickly from the
northwest to the southeast Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening. The greatest challenge has been the timing of
precipitation as model guidance has not been consistent. Current
thinking is that light rain will begin Wednesday morning over the
foothills of the Alaska Range, Cook Inlet, and the western Kenai
Peninsula. Precipitation will then fill in across much of
Southcentral by midday with the greatest amounts of rain expected
over the Kenai Peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast. Rain
will then taper from west to east beginning late Wednesday
afternoon. Areas across the northern Gulf coast and southern
Copper River Basin should expect rain tapering off by Wednesday
evening. As this low departs late Wednesday, cloud cover may clear
just enough to allow for afternoon and evening thunderstorms over
the Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin Wednesday
afternoon and evening. As this low quickly moves toward the
southeast, a beautiful day is in store for Southcentral on
Thursday with clear skies and warm temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper level low that moved into the Kuskokwim Delta earlier
today will continue to spread eastward over the Southwest mainland
through the overnight hours. Showers associated with this upper
level feature will begin to taper off Wednesday morning, allowing
for a break in the active weather pattern as this system moves
out of the region for the afternoon and evening hours.

On Thursday, a front associated with a Bering low will approach
the Southwest coast, stretching across the Alaska Peninsula. This
will bring the next chance of widespread rainfall for the coastal
areas on Thursday, which will then move farther inland through
the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A low centered just west of Shemya continues to be the driver over
the western Aleutians and Bering as the associated front pushes
eastward. Small craft advisory winds and widespread rain remain in
the forecast through the next few days as the front moves over the
Pribilofs by Wednesday afternoon and then pushes into the
Southwest coast by Thursday. However, expect the strong, small
craft winds to continue on the backside of this low system over
the western Bering on Thursday as a tight gradients remains in
place.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

...Bering Sea and the Aleutian Coastal Waters...

An area of low pressure will meander across the central Bering.
Sustained small craft criteria winds (23 knots or more) will
develop south of the Aleutian Chain from the Rat Islands eastward
to south of Nikolski for Friday into Saturday morning. Here,
waves will build to near 10 feet given good fetch length. These
winds and waves will weaken for the remainder of the weekend as
the low itself fills/weakens some.

...Gulf of Alaska...

A front will swing eastward across the Gulf on Friday, ahead of a
deepening area of low pressure that reaches the western Gulf
Friday night, and then moves slowly northeast to near the
coastline by Sunday. It's possible some sustained small craft
strength winds will develop across the northern Gulf on Saturday
ahead of the low. Otherwise, winds and waves will remain below
headline criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday)...

A cooler than normal and unsettled pattern is expected for Friday
through Tuesday as broad upper level troughing extends across
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska. This troughing will be driven
by global weather patterns, reaching as far away as the Indian
Ocean. This is significant as upper level troughing over Alaska
is enhanced by upper level ridging over the Indian subcontinent.
Furthermore, ECMWF/GFS/GEM ensembles are showing easterly 200mb
zonal winds in the polar-jet region. This dynamic will help weaken
the polar-jet and increase the likelihood in a meridional pattern
setting up across Alaska.

Ensembles show positive precipitation anomalies along the coast
for Southcentral Alaska for this period, meaning there will be
more rainfall than normal during the period. Deterministic models
are showing a broad low pressure system over the Bering/Aleutians
on Friday. This low is projected to move east-northeastward
across the Gulf of Alaska. There is a moderate degree of
uncertainty in the exact track of this low as the GFS and GEM
bring this low northeastward into Yukon Territory while the ECMWF
keeps the low stalled off the coast of Southeast Alaska. Due to
this, there is low to moderate confidence in the precipitation
forecast as precipitation amounts are highly dependent on the low
track.

In summary, days 3-7 is expected to have cool temperatures and
above average precipitation. However, there is a high degree of
uncertainty in projected rainfall amounts in Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES: 130, 131
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD/ED