Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2020
Gale Warning 408, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Jul 18, 2020, 3:48 PM AKDT. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2020, 3:48 PM AKDT (23:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2020, 3:45 AM AKDT
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
755 FZAK51 PAFC 182348 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-191230- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... High pressure across the Gulf Sat afternoon dissipates late Sat night. A north Pacific low moves to 150 nm S of Kodiak Sun morning, with an associated front moving into the southern Gulf. The low then moves to 90 nm E of Kodiak Sun afternoon at 1005 mb, with the attendant front reaching the northern Gulf. This low moves to 115 nm SE of Middleton Island at 1008 mb Mon afternoon. $$ PKZ119-191230- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 ...GALE WARNING SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Near the coast, E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ120-191230- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ121-191230- Resurrection Bay- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-191230- Prince William Sound- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-191230- Port Valdez- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-191230- Valdez Narrows- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-191230- Valdez Arm- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-191230- Passage Canal- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-191230- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ131-191230- Barren Islands East- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft. Rain. .SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ132-191230- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 6 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ136-191230- Chiniak Bay- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-191230- Marmot Bay- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-191230- Shelikof Strait- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-191230- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. .SUN...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-191230- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-191230- Kachemak Bay- 348 PM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
3 follow-up statements
646 FZAK51 PAFC 191144 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-200100- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 1007 mb low 165 nm south of Kodiak moves 80 nm south of Yakutat at 1010 mb Mon night. $$ PKZ119-200100- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ120-200100- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N wind 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ121-200100- Resurrection Bay- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 10 kt becoming S wind in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-200100- Prince William Sound- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain. .MON...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-200100- Port Valdez- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-200100- Valdez Narrows- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-200100- Valdez Arm- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-200100- Passage Canal- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-200100- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ131-200100- Barren Islands East- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ132-200100- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ136-200100- Chiniak Bay- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming NW wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .MON...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-200100- Marmot Bay- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming N wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ138-200100- Shelikof Strait- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-200100- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming N wind 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-200100- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-200100- Kachemak Bay- 344 AM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
342 FZAK51 PAFC 192356 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-201230- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 1004 mb low 140 nm southwest of Middleton Island moves 140 nm west of Sitka at 1012 mb for Tue afternoon. Its front moves over Southeast Alaska by Tue afternoon. A 1012 mb low forms 45 nm west of Homer Mon afternoon and moves 100 nm west of Middleton Island by Tue afternoon. $$ PKZ119-201230- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ120-201230- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ121-201230- Resurrection Bay- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-201230- Prince William Sound- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-201230- Port Valdez- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-201230- Valdez Narrows- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-201230- Valdez Arm- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-201230- Passage Canal- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-201230- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ131-201230- Barren Islands East- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ132-201230- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ136-201230- Chiniak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-201230- Marmot Bay- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ138-201230- Shelikof Strait- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-201230- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. .MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ140-201230- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-201230- Kachemak Bay- 356 PM AKDT Sun Jul 19 2020 .TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
773 FZAK51 PAFC 201145 CWFAER Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ197-210015- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+ COOK INLET... A 1002 mb low 30 nm southwest of Middleton Island moves 95 nm south of Yakutat at 1011 mb Tue morning and dissipates. A 1010 mb low forms 70 nm west of Middleton Island Tue night. $$ PKZ119-210015- Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ120-210015- Cape Cleare to Gore Point- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ121-210015- Resurrection Bay- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N wind after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ125-210015- Prince William Sound- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ126-210015- Port Valdez- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ127-210015- Valdez Narrows- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ128-210015- Valdez Arm- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE wind after midnight. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ129-210015- Passage Canal- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ130-210015- West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ131-210015- Barren Islands East- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ132-210015- Marmot Island to Sitkinak- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ136-210015- Chiniak Bay- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ137-210015- Marmot Bay- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ138-210015- Shelikof Strait- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ139-210015- Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ140-210015- Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ141-210015- Kachemak Bay- 345 AM AKDT Mon Jul 20 2020 .TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jul 18, 5:07 AM AKDT, 10 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 5:07 AM AKDT, 10 hours 41 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 507 AM AKDT Sat Jul 18 2020 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A broad upper trough extends from Utqiagvik south into the North Pacific and across into the panhandle with shortwaves rotating around this feature across the mainland. A series of upper level lows are embedded within this trough, one south of Dutch Harbor and one north of the Seward Peninsula. These two lows will begin to converge as they move south and north towards each other Saturday. At the surface, the Dutch Harbor low will continue to bring showery conditions across the central and eastern Aleutians until it moves east, entering the Gulf of Alaska Sunday morning. This will bring the next round of precipitation starting with Kodiak and the Gulf before heading northward towards the Gulf coast. Winds with this feature look to remain within small craft criteria. Rain associated with convection across the southwest is dissipating this morning on radar after having undergone nighttime cooling. High pressure will remain over the Bering with the usual marine stratus and fog concerns, however, mixing has led to breaks at different cloud levels and even some clearing in places as seen on satellite. Sunday morning, a low will enter the western Bering and Aleutians, bringing chances for rain and increased winds to those areas. Winds look to remain below small craft criteria, however, there is a possibility that small craft winds will accompany this system. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in much better agreement this forecast period. The position, track and strength of the low in the Gulf are similar across the EC, GFS, NAM and the Canadian. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions with chances for showers towards the end of the TAF period. Gusty southeasterly winds will taper off this morning before regaining strength this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Tuesday)... The widespread stratus blanketing Southcentral overnight is beginning to break up as the moist, onshore flow shifts to a drier and weaker westerly flow aloft. This flow will steer an upper-level shortwave from southwest Alaska over the northern Susitna Valley today. As this system works east, convection will increase across interior Southcentral this afternoon and evening, especially in areas with diminished cloud cover and increased insolation. The focus of the shower activity is expected to develop from the Susitna Valley northeast to the Denali Highway. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the higher terrain of the Alaska, Talkeetna, Chugach, and Kenai Ranges where westerly upslope flow will increase lift. On Sunday morning, a surface low will move into the western Gulf and track just east of Kodiak Island (~90 miles SE of Kodiak City by 7am). Guidance overnight has shifted the track of this low back to west, with the 00z and 06z GFS and NAM almost in sync with one another. The low is then expected to move south of Middleton Island by Monday morning before drifting into the eastern Gulf by Tuesday. Given the westward jog of this low, precipitation amounts have again been increased from Kodiak Island north and east along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Rain, heavy at times, is likely for Kodiak City early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon before tapering off to showers Sunday evening. Around one inch of rain is expected along the eastern half of the island. Similar amounts are expected across the eastern Kenai into western Prince William Sound with the bulk of the heaviest rain falling from late morning Sunday through early Monday morning as the low remains to the south and its front stalling along the coast. A period of gale force winds are also likely over the coastal waters south of Cordova as a low-level barrier jet sets up. Farther inland, across interior Southcentral, the precipitation will be much lighter and showery in nature. On Monday, an upper-level ridge begins to push in from the west as the main system departs to the east. A weak upper-level shortwave will ride overtop of this ridge and move across the Alaska Range. This feature will increase the instability over interior Southcentral Monday afternoon and evening, resulting in another round of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The gap winds that diminished overnight will return at times along Turnagain Arm and the Copper River Basin Saturday into Sunday; however, these winds are not expected to be as strong as they were yesterday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The active weather pattern will remain in place across southwest Alaska for the coming days. The area is expected to remain under the influence of an upper level trough that will have spokes of upper level energy rotating around it. There is more cloud cover across Southwest this morning which is expected to keep instability weaker than yesterday. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is between 100-300 J/Kg and LI (Lifted Index) values of -1 to 1. Instability remains the same for Sunday, though activity is expected to remain more confined to the Kuskokwim Mountains through Aniak and Sleetmute than areas further east. The steering flow remains weak, also, meaning any activity that does form will move slightly from where they originally develop before raining themselves out. Too much cloud cover over the western Alaska Range will inhibit any storms from producing lightning. Most of the activity will be heavy downpours/showers today and Sunday in the same areas as yesterday. However, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for both days. Bethel also has a better chance at seeing some activity this afternoon/evening. For the Kamishak Gap, the gradient is expected to tighten some once again late afternoon/tonight as the low pressure in the North Pacific moves northward just east of Kodiak Island. With the trough also lingering over Southwest this is pushing a decent amount of air through the gap which will accelerate in doing so. Generally winds of 10-15 mph are possible with gusts up to 20 mph, which is slightly weaker than yesterday. For the Bristol Bay region, as the aforementioned low moves north toward Kodiak, some of its energy will move into lower Bristol Bay and will aid in the development of a band of light rain over the Bay and inland to include villages of Dillingham, King Salmon, Egegik, Pilot Point, and Levelock. The timing on this is this evening through Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... An upper level ridge is expected to dominate most of the Bering today through Sunday before flattening out and becoming more zonal in the upper levels on Monday. As usual, low stratus and patchy fog is expected for the next few days. Also light winds and low waves are expected. Weak low pressure to the southeast of the Aleutian Chain this morning will continue drifting off to the east with its front draped across the eastern Aleutian Chain. This will keep the threat for rain showers today/tonight. Lastly, a front with an upper level low to the west of Attu Island will begin to impact the western Chain this evening increasing chances of rain and bringing an increase in winds. The winds with the front may reach small craft advisory level but kept just under for now. This is expected to be a slow moving system so expect unsettled conditions for the next couple of days. & .MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)... Aleutians/Bering: High pressure moves into the eastern Bering with generally light winds and showers in Bristol Bay through Wed. A Kamchatka low and front moves into the western Aleutians and Bering Mon spreading to the central Aleutians and Bering by Wed. Confidence is good for southeast to south small craft winds and waves over the western and central Aleutians and Bering. A North Pacific low Tue brings local gales over the Aleutians and widespread small craft conditions over the region. Gulf of Alaska: A low and front moves across the Gulf through Wed. Confidence is good for local small craft winds and waves south of Montague Island Mon. Confidence is good for westerly small craft winds and waves near the Barrens and Sitkinak Islands, with local gales spreading east of the Barren Islands for Wed. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The global models begin to diverge over the Bering and Central Pacific, which is seconded by the GFS ensemble members. There will be a series of lows moving into the North Pacific and Bering, however the timing and the tracks of the surface low are in question. The moisture associated with each low will push inland but it is still too soon to determine the impacts. Stay tuned for more details. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CK SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV MARINE/LONG TERM...PS/MK
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 3:52 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.