Gale Warning 403, NWS Anchorage, AK

833 
FZAK52 PAFC 302334
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-011245-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 mb low 80 nm northwest of Shemya will move 300 nm southwest
of St. Matthew Island Wed afternoon and dissipate.

$$

PKZ150-011245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-011245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-011245-
Bristol Bay-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-011245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-011245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-011245-
Unalaska Bay-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-011245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-011245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-011245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-011245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-011245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-011245-
Adak to Kiska-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-011245-
Kiska to Attu-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-011245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-011245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-011245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-011245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
334 PM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

976 
FZAK52 PAFC 011139
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020045-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 994 mb low 280 nm northeast of Shemya moves into Siberia Thursday 
morning. A 996 mb low moves 100 nm northwest of Shemya Friday 
morning.

$$

PKZ150-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020045-
Bristol Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind shifting to SE wind 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt shifting to SW wind in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except SE wind 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020045-
Unalaska Bay-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.

$$

PKZ172-020045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020045-
Adak to Kiska-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020045-
Kiska to Attu-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-020045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 AM AKDT Wed Jul 1 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A frontal boundary extends from a low over eastern Russia to over
Southwest Alaska then west over the Bering Sea. Showers are
focused along and head of this front, which is pushing up against
the Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. The leading edge of the upper
trough is pushing eastward into Southcentral Alaska. Deep
southwesterly flow up Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley is leading
to some upslope flow as well. The end result is cloudy skies and
showers across much of the Mat-Su. Meanwhile, out west a
deepening low southwest of the Aleutians is sending a a gale
force frontal system toward the western Aleutians. Winds and rain
are on the increase.

Clear skies dominate the northern to eastern Bering Sea and into
the Kuskokwim Delta, while a broad area of stratus and fog
stretches across the remainder of the Bering Sea and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models overall are in fair synoptic agreement through the short
term. Minor differences in QPF/POP fields out west will be
handled with model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. There could be some brief
gusty winds off the Inlet late this afternoon into evening.
Otherwise, winds will diminish tonight and persist through
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough in place over the northwestern Mainland may
allow for a few shortwaves to cross over the northern part of
Southcentral this afternoon and evening. This will bring a chance
for showers across the Susitna Valley and northern Copper River
Basin. Southcentral will then see a pattern change with a ridge of
high pressure moving overhead beginning Tuesday, allowing for
improving conditions through the rest of the week. Mid-level
winds will bring plenty of offshore flow allowing for a warming
and drying pattern. High temperatures on Thursday could approach
the mid 70s across interior locations while areas along the coast
will remain slightly cooler in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Monday
night through Thursday)...

A frontal system continues to push through Southwest Alaska.
Coastal areas, especially the Y-K Delta are clearing behind the
front, while cloud cover is hung up against the Alaska Range to
the east. Post frontal flow off the Bering Sea is also keeping
temperatures cool for Southwest Alaska. Ridging will build in
starting tomorrow, with the ridge at its apex over the region on
Wednesday. This will keep weather calm and warm temperatures into
midweek, especially for interior areas of Southwest Alaska. So,
upped maximum temperatures to reflect that trend. Models fall
apart on Thursday so it's tough to tell what will happen later in
the week, though there is enough to show that the ridge shifts
east and southwest flow enters. This signals cooler, cloudier
weather and an increased chance of precipitation Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Monday night through Thursday)...

Mainly zonal flow exists for the Bering Sea, with the tail end of
the recently passed front stretched along the eastern Aleutians.
As usual, most of the Bering is under low to mid level cloud
cover. Satellite imagery shows the cirrus shield of the next
system just entering the western Aleutians. The forecast for this
system to track across the Bering the next few days is on track.
One update today is an increase in wind speed as models are
consistent today in showing gale force winds with the front. So,
updated the forecast to have a solid swath of gales with this
front. The front does weaken as it progresses so gales will be
present until Wednesday morning, at which the front is expected to
be in the Central Bering. Thursday the front will be in the eastern
Bering with winds falling below small craft advisory by that time.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

A surface low moves into the western Bering Sea Thursday
night/Friday and becomes stationary and slowly weakens through
Saturday. Winds are expected to hold in the small craft range with
this system. However, it is possible that there could be low end
southerly gales over the central Aleutians/Bering Sea with the
front on Friday. Quiet conditions will persist across the Gulf
waters.

&&

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A blocking upper ridge sets up over the Gulf and the Mainland
with troughing over the Bering Sea/Aleutians during the later
part of this week and should persist into Monday. However, models
do differ some on the strength and location of the ridge axis.
That said, there is enough confidence to go with generally warmer
and drier conditions across much of the Mainland. Exceptions may
occur though. If the ridge is a little further east it would allow
the trough over the Bering Sea to spread a moisture and cooler
temperatures into coastal Southwest Alaska. Also, A few models are
dropping upper short waves south across the eastern Interior/
Copper River Basin through the period which will bring the
possibility of increased clouds and shower potential to these
areas.

Troughing over the Bering Sea/Aleutians will keep the area under
generally cloudy conditions with periods of wind and rain/showers
through Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 175 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...BC