Gale Warning 402, NWS Anchorage, AK

087 
FZAK52 PAFC 301151
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010045-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 985 mb low 180 nm west of Shemya moves 200 nm northeast of Shemya 
at 996 mb Wednesday morning. The low then moves northeastward into 
the Bering Strait Thursday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010045-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-010045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt except S 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010045-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010045-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010045-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-010045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-010045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKDT Tue Jun 30 2020

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 AM AKDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

On the planetary scale, the Rossby Wave pattern consists of upper
troughing over the Bering/Aleutians while upper ridging builds
over the North Pacific into the southern Gulf of Alaska.
Teleconnections support the upper ridge continuing to amplify over
the next several days.

On the synoptic scale, there is an upper low remaining nearly
stationary over eastern Siberia. A weak upper level trough is
currently over the eastern Gulf of Alaska moving eastward into
Canada. The subtropical jetstream is oriented southwest to
northeast and extends from the subtropical central Pacific to
central British Columbia. An upper low is currently developing
over the Kurill Islands as this low is in the left-exit region
(area conducive to storm formation) of the subtropical jet. This
upper low is moving northeastward toward the western
Bering/Aleutians.

On the mesoscale, areas of low stratus are moving east-
northeastward across the Kenai Peninsula. These areas of low
stratus are localized and not widespread. Turnagain winds have
subsided over the past several hours.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance is in good agreement with resolving the placement,
movement and orientation of synoptic scale features at both the
surface and in the upper levels. Thus, forecast confidence remains
above average. High resolution models were favored to resolve
local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for this TAF package. There is
a moderate confidence in the potential of southwesterly gusts
after 21z. These gusts are expected to subside after 06z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Monday and
Tuesday)...

An upper level shortwave will make its way over Southcentral on
Monday, bringing one last wave of showers before warm
temperatures and clearer skies begin to occupy the region on
Tuesday. Showers on Monday will likely be confined to the northern
Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin with showers over
the high terrain possible near these areas as well. On Tuesday the
wave is expected to be near the Alcan border with some lingering
storms possible over the Wrangells. Instability parameters
indicate a chance for some isolated thunderstorms over the
Wrangells should the area clear out before peak heating on
Tuesday. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge is expected to build
over western Alaska on Tuesday, which will bring above average
temperatures and clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level disturbance crossing over the Kuskokwim Delta this
morning will continue to spread eastward across Southwest Alaska
through the afternoon. The strong winds seen over Southwest
mainland overnight into the morning hours will begin to taper off
throughout the day as this wave pushes out of the forecast area.
Behind this system, clearing conditions will move into the region
later today through Wednesday morning. Ridging trying to build in
over the Bristol Bay area with less cloud cover could lead to the
development of foggy conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings. The next chance of rainfall and stronger winds will
approach the Kuskokwim Delta on Wednesday associated with
remnants of a Bering Sea low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Remnants of a frontal boundary over the eastern Bering and Alaska
Peninsula will begin to diminish, in terms of strong winds and
showery conditions, as the system pushes over Southwest mainland
this morning. Attention quickly focuses westward as the next
strong low system begins to move over Shemya by this afternoon.
Widespread rainfall, gale force winds, and elevated seas will
accompany this system as it works its way over the eastern
Aleutians and Bering over the next few days. By the time the
associated front reaches the Pribilofs overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, the strongest winds will diminish below gale
force strength as it continues to lift northward and weaken
through late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

...Bering Sea and the Aleutian Coastal Waters...

There is high confidence in small-craft southerly winds over the
Eastern Bering/West Coast of AK to start this period. These winds
could push seas as high as 15 feet over the Central Bering. As
those winds shift north and dissipate on Thu, a new small- craft
level front will move into the Western Aleutians on Thu. This
system has the chance to bring some gale force gusts, but
confidence is moderate that sustained winds will not reach gale-
force.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Westerly flow with a ridge of high pressure will keep the
sustained winds below gales (and potentially not reaching even
small craft), with waves below 10 feet expected.

&&

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Models in fairly good agreement on Thursday with the ridge
building over mainland Alaska and a trough skirting to the
northeast across northwest Alaska. But for the rest of the period
the GFS and ensembles keep the ridge strong over the area with a
slight retrograde to the west Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF is
much different from previous runs with a low near the ALCAN
spinning off easterly waves through much of the long term. We believe
this is a one model run issue as all the other models continue to
agree upon a ridge building through the long term.

The ridge is expected to keep most of mainland Alaska dry and
warmer the only exception is the trough that will skirt the YK
delta region Thursday and early Friday with some areas of rain. A
few showers may begin develop over the Alaskan and Chugach ranges
over the weekend mainly in the afternoon and evening due to afternoon
heating.

Over the Bering Sea and Aleutians it will be dry on Thursday but
a low pressure and frontal system will move into the area Friday
and Saturday producing rain another system will bring some showers
to the western Aleutians Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 175 177 178 411 413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM/CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...MSO/RC