Gale Warning 389, NWS Anchorage, AK

759 
FZAK52 PAFC 072355
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1005 mb low 60 nm southwest of Dutch Harbor moves southeast 
into the North Pacific by Tue morning. A front associated with a 
995 mb low enters the western Aleutians Tue morning. The 992 mb low 
center moves to 50 nm northwest of Adak Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt except NE 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 5
ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 PM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

241 
FZAK52 PAFC 081143
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090015-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 200 nm southeast of Dutch Harbor moves southeast 
into the North Pacific by Tue morning. A front associated with 
a 995 mb low enters the western Aleutians Tue morning. The low 
strengthens to 992 mb and moves to 200 nm west of Adak Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-090015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090015-
Bristol Bay-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Areas of fog.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt by afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090015-
Unalaska Bay-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 
35 kt early. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090015-
Adak to Kiska-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090015-
Kiska to Attu-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 AM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
342 PM AKDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level jet activity across the domain is confined to the
Bering Sea. A jet axis is moving from northwest to southeast at
about 85 knots at 300 mb (30,000') in support of a weakening
system over the Eastern Bering. This system is starting to shear
apart, but it continues to push low clouds and stratiform rain
over parts of SW AK this morning. A stronger wave of energy can be
readily seen on water vapor imagery dropping down through the
Bering. This stronger wave will eventually become the dominant
feature as it slides across the Eastern Aleutians Sun night into
Mon. Further inland over SW AK, things will once again be
dependent on daytime heating and associated convection.

Across Southcentral, much of the morning saw some lower clouds
from either marine stratus or the remnants of Friday's convection.
However, just about all of that has burned off this afternoon and
most places are heating up quickly under the June sunshine. We are
already starting to see convection fire along the higher terrain,
to include several thunderstorms. Instability is slightly lower
than yesterday (per the 12z ANC sounding) and steering flow is
slightly weaker. The net effect will be that the stronger
convection will likely hug closer to the terrain vs Fri.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement through the weekend, but problems
quickly emerge early next week. Pinpointing convection will be the
struggle for today and Sun. Hand edits were mostly applied for
this forecast package. Models have trended stronger with the
feature dropping through the Bering today and Sun. The American
models are slightly aggressive with this feature as it moves
through the Aleutians. We have increased winds and PoPs with this
feature and it may require further "intensification". By early
next week, the focus shifts to the SE ALCAN Border. In this
corner, the northern stream and the southern stream will interact
with one another. When you couple that with instability and
convective feedback processes, you have a recipe for low forecast
confidence. It does however look quite wet for the Copper River
Basin and likely cloudier across much of Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. A sea breeze will persist
through the afternoon. This should help to provide some stability
and keep any showers/thunderstorms that form over the mountains at
bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

For much of Southcentral the atmosphere will be fairly unstable
through Sunday evening. Diurnal convection will produce isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day. The
exception will be along the north Gulf coast and Prince William
Sound, where a more stable air mass is in place. An easterly wave
will push into the Copper River Basin during the latter portion of
the day Sunday. This will reduce the instability, and bring in a
better chance for more widespread cloud cover and precipitation to
the Copper River Basin as well as the Prince William Sound area
by later in the day. On Monday, more stable air will push across
all of Southcentral, and Thunderstorms are not expected. At the
low levels onshore flow will increase. This will produce some
gusty winds for the Copper River area, the Knik River, as well as
Turnagain Arm and portions of Anchorage.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Over the course of the next few days, the thermal trough over the
Interior is expected to strengthen. As a result, warming
temperatures through the 60s are expected each day with some 70
degree readings possible near Sleetmute Monday afternoon. A series
of easterly upper level waves are expected to pass through
Southwest Alaska each afternoon bringing the risk for
thunderstorms. The Middle Kuskokwim Valley, northern Bristol Bay,
and eastern Kuskokwim Delta have the best chance of seeing these
thunderstorms. Ample instability, lift in the atmosphere, and
daytime heating will be sufficient to aid in the development of
the storms. Closer to the coast, enough stable air will remain
present to keep the region mostly cloudy and cool for one more
day tomorrow. After tomorrow, the sheared out front that has been
in place will be pulled southward as a strengthening upper level
low over the Bering phases with this energy and pulls the front
south. As a result, the southern Bristol Bay area can expect a
return to some sunshine and warming temperatures for early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A sheared out front across the eastern Bering along the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast will be absorbed into a strengthening piece of upper
level energy currently moving southward into the western Bering
Sunday. As a result, periods of rain and small craft advisory
winds are expected across the southern Bering and the central to
eastern Aleutian Chain Sunday morning into Monday afternoon.
Models have been trending stronger with this feature each new run.
Therefore, gales were introduced this forecast package for areas
to the southwest of Dutch Harbor. There is the chance a more
widespread area of gales will be introduced into the forecast with
later updates for the Monday morning timeframe.

Another frontal system will approach the western Aleutian Chain
Monday afternoon with small craft advisory level winds and periods
of rain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3-5 Tue through Thu)...

The main system will be an occluding front over the Western
Aleutians Tue. This looks to support small craft level winds. A
shortwave will move over and reinvigorate this front on Wed. This
could bring a brief shot of gales, but confidence is low at this
time. This system will then weaken as it drifts into the Central
Bering through Thu.

For the Gulf of Alaska, winds and seas are expected to remain
relatively light and calm (below Small Craft).

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Tue through Sat)...

This period will feature more organized systems over the Copper
River Basin and across the Aleutians. In between, expect weak
flow, seasonal temperatures, and the chance for showers for most
of the southern mainland. There is growing confidence that a
couple easterly waves will move from Canada into the eastern half
of AK through the early portion of the week. Each of these will
have the potential to bring widespread moderate rainfall to areas
ranging from Cordova, the Prince William Sound, and up into the
Copper River Basin. As these waves transit from east to west
across the southern mainland, they could act as "triggers" for
convection, especially Tue afternoon over SW AK. As we get towards
Thu, some weak ridging should bring a trend towards drier
conditions, but the potential for afternoon convection (showers
and thunderstorms) will remain.

For the Aleutians, the period will start with a warm occlusion
over the Western Aleutians and ridging over the rest of the area.
This occlusion will be "reinforced" by an upper level wave on Wed,
allowing it to continue to bring rain and winds from the Western
Aleutians through the Central Aleutians. This system will then
slide further east-northeast bringing continued unsettled weather
to end the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL