Gale Warning 375, NWS Anchorage, AK

172 
FZAK51 PAFC 231158
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-240030-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front will move slowly across the northern to eastern Gulf through
Sat night, then push onshore and dissipate on Sun. A 997 mb low 105 
nm southeast of Middleton Island Sun morning will move across Prince 
William Sound and dissipate Sun night. 

$$

PKZ119-240030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-240030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-240030-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind to 10 kt early becoming N. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-240030-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft early building to 4 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-240030-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-240030-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-240030-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-240030-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-240030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-240030-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-240030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-240030-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-240030-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-240030-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-240030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-240030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-240030-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

965 
FZAK51 PAFC 232259
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-241200-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 994 mb low over the Northeast Pacific moves to 110 nm southeast
of Cordova at 993 mb by Sun morning and then moves onshore and 
dissipates.

$$

PKZ119-241200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-241200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-241200-
Resurrection Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-241200-
Prince William Sound-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-241200-
Port Valdez-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-241200-
Valdez Narrows-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-241200-
Valdez Arm-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-241200-
Passage Canal-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-241200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-241200-
Barren Islands East-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-241200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-241200-
Chiniak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-241200-
Marmot Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-241200-
Shelikof Strait-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-241200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-241200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-241200-
Kachemak Bay-
259 PM AKDT Sat May 23 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad longwave trough stretches from across the Northeast
Pacific to the Gulf of Alaska through the Bering Sea, while an
upper level ridge runs over northeastern Alaska. A vertically
stacked low over central Aleutians invites increased clouds over
across the Bering Sea and the Aleutians. Strong upper-level winds
are enhancing moisture and clouds over southcentral Alaska and the
Interior, and this upper-level activity is displaced from the
frontal system over the western Gulf. A series of shortwaves aloft
combined with strong southeasterly flow south of Alaska Peninsula
are producing increased moisture and clouds, along with gusty
winds.

Near surface, ASCAT shows strong low-level easterly flow and
steady light rain ahead of the frontal system approaching the
northern Gulf and Prince William Sound. Surface observations in
this area indicate small craft advisory to gale force conditions,
with winds strengthening as the front nears.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance in in fairly good agreement with handling of
large scale features over the next few days, each new model cycle
brings minor changes in many of the key weather features. This is
typical for the weather pattern we are in, with numerous upper
level short-waves traversing the region. A small change in the
amplitude or track of one of these easily impacts one or more of
the others. Therefore, forecast confidence starts out high but
steadily drops with time. The approach to the forecast will be to
fine-tune the forecast as each short-wave gets closer in time.

One specific feature where forecast confidence has increased is
the low tracking northward across the Gulf Saturday and to the
north Gulf coast Saturday night. A tighter cluster of solutions
leads to higher confidence that the bulk of rain with this system
will affect Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The wind forecast remains a
bit tricky. Expect a period of Turnagain winds this afternoon into
evening. However, the extensive cloud cover from Anchorage up to
the Mat-Su and near uniform temperatures tends to work against the
Turnagain Arm wind bending into Anchorage, so this could result in
weaker southeast winds than forecast or a shorter period of gusty
winds. This challenge will continue on Saturday, with the terminal
along the northern periphery of the Turnagain Arm winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Memorial Day)

A somewhat stagnant pattern will remain in place, with the
synoptic pattern being anchored by an area of low pressure across
the eastern Aleutians. In general, a moist southeasterly flow will
continue through Saturday night with several disturbances in the
flow aloft crossing the region, providing bursts of increased
ascent (lift) and resultant shower coverage.

Then as we head into Sunday, a stronger disturbance rounding the
base of the trough to (anchored by the Aleutian low) will eject
northeast towards the Gulf, turning north to northwest as it
approaches the Gulf Coast. In general, all models agree on this
scenario with some differences how far west the attendant surface
low tracks. This in turn affects how far west the rainfall
potential is for the Kenai and Anchorage Bowl. One thing that
looks more likely is increasing rainfall potential for the coastal
locations and even into the Copper Basin.

Speaking of which, the models are showing convective temperatures
being reached there with soundings indicating MUCAPEs of 500-800
J/kg and lifted indices slightly negative. However, this may be
overdone due to the likelihood of increased cloud cover, which
would limit heating during the day. This is something we'll
continue to monitor. Additional disturbances in a developing
easterly flow spells more wet weather potential for Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue for
Southwest Alaska over the course of the Memorial Day weekend as a
quasi-stationary low pressure system meanders through the Bering
Sea. In conjunction, Pacific Ocean moisture will continue to
stream northwestward on the eastern side of this low sending
multiple waves of upper level energy through the area with a
chance for showers each day. The better chance for these showers
will be along the mountain ranges of the Kuskokwim Mountains,
Alaska and Aleutian Range as a predominant southeasterly flow
continues. This will continue to stream moisture into the east
facing slopes leading to orographic lift (a process in which air
is lifted up along the mountain side which cools and condenses and
squeezes even more moisture out of the atmosphere). For the west
facing slopes, the air will descend and warm leading to drying but
a sprinkle or light rain shower cannot be ruled out the rest of
today into Saturday morning. A stronger piece of upper level
energy is expected to lift northward and bring a more widespread
rainfall event to Southwest for Saturday evening into Sunday.
Temperatures with this pattern in place will remain near to
slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
A complex low pressure system will continue meandering in the
Bering Sea for the next couple days as it remains cut-off from the
overall upper level flow. Multiple waves of energy will continue
to rotate around this low keeping the unsettled pattern and chance
for rain showers in the forecast every day. A more potent wave is
expected to rotate around the center of the low this evening into
Saturday morning that is anticipated to bring, especially Saint
Paul, a period of steady rain early Saturday morning. Although
each model run seems to be nudging this period of steady rain
further north. As a result, PoPs were adjusted to show keep the
higher PoPs over Saint Paul with lower chances further south over
Saint George. With this pattern remaining in place, patchy fog was
placed into the forecast for tonight into Saturday morning for
the Pribilofs as well as for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
There are some model timing and track differences Tuesday through
Wednesday as the Bering Sea low exits to the north. Despite these
differences, expect diminishing winds during this period. Forecast
confidence is low Wednesday and beyond with the track and strength
of storm systems over the northwest Pacific. One or more of these
could impact the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea on Wednesday,
though chances are winds would be small craft advisory or weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...
Model spread for the extended period is large and forecast
confidence is low. One of the key features mentioned in the
long-term forecast discussion on Thursday was a deep Pacific
low approaching the Alaska Peninsula/Gulf of Alaska. This feature
is now nowhere to be seen in the 12Z models. So what can one glean
from the model guidance? The weather pattern looks fairly "normal"
for this time of year, with nothing that would lead to any
extremes in rain, wind or temperatures. The most active region
looks like it will be the northwest Pacific up to the Aleutians
and into the Bering Sea. There is potential for a stronger storm
system (gale force) to affect some portion of this area. For the
southern mainland, in the absence of a strong ridge, it looks most
likely that a general cloudy/showery pattern will continue.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB/SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB