Gale Warning 373, NWS Anchorage, AK

388 
FZAK51 PAFC 212348
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221230-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the southwestern Gulf will move to the northeastern 
Gulf on Friday, then weaken. A Pacific low will track to 155 nm 
south of Yakutat Sat afternoon at 998 mb.

$$

PKZ119-221230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221230-
Resurrection Bay-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221230-
Prince William Sound-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221230-
Port Valdez-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221230-
Valdez Narrows-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221230-
Valdez Arm-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221230-
Passage Canal-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221230-
Barren Islands East-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221230-
Chiniak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221230-
Marmot Bay-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221230-
Shelikof Strait-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221230-
Kachemak Bay-
348 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

268 
FZAK51 PAFC 221208
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230045-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front across the central Gulf will move into the eastern Gulf Sat 
morning. A 996 mb low will move to 95 nm southwest of Yakutat Sun 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-230045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230045-
Resurrection Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230045-
Prince William Sound-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230045-
Port Valdez-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230045-
Valdez Narrows-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230045-
Valdez Arm-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230045-
Passage Canal-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230045-
Barren Islands East-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230045-
Chiniak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230045-
Marmot Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230045-
Shelikof Strait-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230045-
Kachemak Bay-
408 AM AKDT Fri May 22 2020

.TODAY...SE wind to 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT Thu May 21 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The current synoptic setup is a broad longwave trough over the
Bering Sea and western Gulf, with a skinny ridge over the Alcan
border. The main weathermaker today is a vertically stacked low
over the central Aleutians with a front extending east towards
Kodiak. This front will reach the northern Gulf coast this
morning bringing southeasterly winds and rain to coastal areas.
Temperatures will remain seasonal with cooler air aloft limiting
precipitation to showers rather than thunderstorms. Widespread
precipitation, generally light winds, and cloudcover are expected
to continue over the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic agreement remains good. There is some uncertainty with
regards to precipitation in the Anchorage vicinity late Thursday
into Friday. Higher-resolution models indicate light rain moving
into town during this time frame, whereas larger scale models
generally show it remaining over higher terrain. The former is the
preferred solution at this time as low level flow is expected to
turn easterly as a barrier jet approaches the northern Gulf. This
is less somewhat less favorable for downsloping.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist, though ceilings may briefly
fall below 5000 feet. The wind forecast remains somewhat
challenging. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist
through Friday morning, however it is difficult to determine (as
in previous days) exactly how strong the winds will be over the
terminal. At this point, it looks like there will be a relative lull
this morning before increasing with peak wind gusts around 30 kt
this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Unsettled weather is expected over Southcentral Alaska for the
next two days. The main weather feature continues to be the large,
vertically stacked area of low pressure over the Aleutian Islands
with a front reaching eastward into the western Gulf of Alaska.
This front will slowly move to the northeast bringing rain and
gusty winds to coastal areas through Friday night. Most inland
areas will see overcast skies due to deep, moist southerly flow.
The one exception will be the Copper River Basin, where a high
pressure ridge over the Alcan border and downsloping flow over the
Chugach and Wrangell Mountains will help to keep the skies on the
clearer side. Many inland areas will stay dry Thu as cross-
barrier flow over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains help to keep
precipitation at bay. However, as the front lingers over the area
into Fri, precipitation chances will increase as the lower levels
become saturated. This front will also increase the pressure
gradient across the area. The pressure gradient will work in
tandem with some daytime heating to bring gusty southeast winds
through the Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and the Copper
River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A low located near Adak this morning has a front along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, which will continue inland through
this morning bringing steady precipitation to the Southwest. This
steady rain will taper to showers across the valley areas this
afternoon. The region will stay in a general southeasterly upper
level flow through Friday afternoon which will keep the moisture
flow from the Pacific streaming northward into the region. The
Aleutian Range/Alaska Range and the Kuskokwim Mountains have the
best chance of seeing a nearly continuous rainfall through Friday
afternoon. Due to the southeasterly flow aloft, there will be a
downslope component along the western sides of the aforementioned
mountain ranges with showers or drizzle possible through the
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A complex low pressure system will continue to move through the
Bering Sea over the course of the next couple of days keeping the
weather unsettled. This system will slowly weaken as it moves to
the east. Multiple upper level waves of energy will rotate around
the center keeping a showery pattern in place during this time.
Fog will continue to be a concern throughout the Bering and the
Pribilofs.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: High confidence remains with a frontal system
moving across the Gulf of Alaska through the weekend. A barrier
jet will develop along the Gulf Coast ahead of the front with
winds expected to remain below gale force. Waves will build as
this wind remains persistent over the same area. Another low
pressure system drives northward along the front from the North
Pacific to the Central Gulf to reinforce the front and push it
into the Gulf Coast. This will reinforce the barrier jet across
the northern Gulf Coast with a possible area of gale force winds
in this area Saturday. As the front pushes inland, winds will
diminish on Sunday.

Bering Sea: Models in great agreement with a low pressure system
slowly moving over the Bering Sea south of the Pribilofs. With the
low weakening during this time, only patches of small craft winds
are expected around the low during the forecast period Friday to
Sunday. This will keep the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain unsettled
as well with rounds of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Thursday)...

Model guidance continues to remain fairly consistent from run to
run on same pattern remaining in place. A low pressure system
will continue to move across the Bering through Tuesday night
before dissipating. This low will continue to waves of upper level
energy through Southwest and Southcentral Alaska leading into
early next week. As a result, below normal to near normal
temperatures and unsettled weather will continue. As this low
dissipates while it retrogrades (moves from east to west) towards
the Gulf of Anadyr through Tuesday night, another low pressure
system will move northward from the North Pacific. The placement,
strength, and timing of this low remain uncertain at this time but
most model guidance agree on a low somewhere south of Kodiak
Island next Wednesday.

Further north across mainland Alaska to the ALCAN border, model
guidance shows an upper level ridge building during this period.
Depending on the strength of this ridge and its orientation will
determine exactly where the aforementioned low pressure goes.
Therefore, the sensible weather beyond Tuesday remains uncertain
with the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley having the best
chance of seeing above normal temperatures and dry weather.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP/CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MV