Gale Warning 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

350 
FZAK51 PAFC 032300
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-041130-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 996 mb low at 55N 143W moves to 57N 153W by Mon afternoon and
then dissipates. A front persists over the central Gulf associated
with a 998 mb North Pacific low through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-041130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-041130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-041130-
Resurrection Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-041130-
Prince William Sound-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-041130-
Port Valdez-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-041130-
Valdez Narrows-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-041130-
Valdez Arm-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-041130-
Passage Canal-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-041130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-041130-
Barren Islands East-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-041130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt except N 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-041130-
Chiniak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ137-041130-
Marmot Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ138-041130-
Shelikof Strait-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-041130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-041130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-041130-
Kachemak Bay-
300 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
246 PM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A weak easterly wave is moving west across the eastern Gulf.
Clouds, a few showers, and slightly increased offshore flow are
about the extent its influence. The remainder of Southcentral,
including Kodiak Island, is generally in fair skies with local
sea breezes. Broad offshore flow with high pressure inland is
bring generally fair skies and generally dry conditions to the
Southwest Mainland. Upper level trough and weak surface centers
brought widespread clouds and showers to the Bering Sea and
Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good synoptic agreement into Tuesday. The
main area of value added grid edits will be in the pressure driven
local effect wind areas. High Res model will be used in addition
to hand edits to capture these effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions with light and generally northerly winds
are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sun and
Mon)...
Offshore flow will continue Sunday with gap winds through the Mat
Valley, Valdez, Thompson Pass, the Copper River Valley and the
Copper River Delta remaining gusty at times. This pattern will be
met with warm and dry conditions across southern Alaska. A second
upper level shortwave looks to head our direction late Sunday
which will bring chances for precipitation to Southcentral. Due to
a barrier jet forming across the northern Gulf, expect an
increase in Turnagain Arm winds and downsloping. There is still a
chance for precipitation in Anchorage during this time, however,
the best chances are in higher elevations and locations along the
coast. The increase in cloud cover will up humidities across the
region and slightly lower high temperatures in the afternoon and
increase low temperatures at night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Temperatures will continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for the region. The Kuskokwim River has been breaking up and at
least one ice jam has been detected. The western portion of the
Kuskokwim is under a flood watch from Tuluksak to Bethel. Further
upriver is under a flood warning. This is a very serious
situation that is unfolding and is being actively monitored.
Temperatures will warm well into the 50s across all of Southwest
Alaska Sunday, with the warm temperatures continuing into Tuesday
under mostly sunny skies. The warm temperatures will only
increase snow and ice melt rates. Sunday a shortwave with move
from Katmai National Park to Togiak. It has an inverted trough
with it and this feature may produce isolated shower. But these
showers are predominately expected south of the Kuskokwim River.
Monday afternoon, the NAM model is pinging into 200 J/kg of CAPE
(Convective Available Potential Energy), slightly negative Lifted
Indices and Total Totals of +50...all of which suggest
thunderstorm potential from Iliamna to Goodnews Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 3)...
On the latest ASCAT (advanced scatterometer)there is a weak low
south of the chain southeast of Adak, a trough southwest of Attu
Island and high pressure over the western Bering. On the CIMSS
Natural Color RGB satellite image there is some stratocu and a few
patches of low stratus but there are some blue skies too. Light
precipitation and gusty winds will impact the Western Aleutians as
a low moves into the region but otherwise it is a pretty mild
forecast package from the Central to Eastern Bering.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Offshore northerly winds will continue this afternoon across
Southwest Alaska. This will cause relative humidity values to fall
to between 20 and 30 percent over much of the region. RH should
recover over night. The breezy winds and low relative humidity
values are expected again tomorrow. The models are hinting at
unstable conditions setting up over portions of SW AK on Monday.
We will have to see if this trend continues with the models. But
as is looks right now there is potential for isolated
thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...
Gulf of Alaska: There is still some model uncertainty with the
low over the Gulf on Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon in terms
of position and strength. The forecast will mostly likely keep
small craft advisory winds over the northern Gulf, with the
potential for a small area of gale force winds if models lock onto
a stronger solution. Models are in better consensus with the next
North Pacific low lifting northward on Thursday morning, which
will bring widespread small craft advisory level winds to the
Gulf, which some models are hinting at a stronger solution
introducing gale force winds across this area.

Bering Sea: Model runs are in relatively good agreement today
with a front moving across the western Aleutians and Bering
Tuesday afternoon, which will continue eastward over the central
Bering and diminish by Thursday morning. However, there is still
some uncertainty as to whether this front will reach gale force
potential like the GFS run currently has forecasted.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wed through Sun)...
As a front associated with the low in the Gulf on Wednesday lifts
northward, the potential for shower development is possible on
Thursday along the North Gulf Coast and even for some inland
locations across Southcentral. A second front on Friday morning
will bring more widespread precipitation from Kodiak Island and
the Kenai Peninsula, which will eventually spread into Southwest
Alaska by Friday afternoon. However, there is some uncertainty in
the track of this system and how quickly it will clear out. Behind
this system, upper level ridging will move in over mainland
Alaska, favoring above average temperatures for the region. There
are some differences in the strength of this ridge, but will
likely result in temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s for most
inland locations for later this week into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 155 152 (Kuskokwim River).
 Flood Watch 155.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...AH