Gale Warning 332, NWS Anchorage, AK

848 
FZAK52 PAFC 161145
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170045-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A north Pacific low moves to 300 nm SE of Shemya at 984mb Thu 
afternoon, then moves to 265 nm NE of Shemya at 986mb by Sat 
morning. Its associated front moves over the eastern Aleutians 
Thu afternoon and slowly departs Fri into Sat. 


$$

PKZ150-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
Bristol Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
Unalaska Bay-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
Adak to Kiska-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft Bering side... 16 ft Pacific
side.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
Kiska to Attu-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow and
rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 AM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 20 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

302 
FZAK52 PAFC 170006
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171315-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 984 mb low 220 nm south
of Shemya this afternoon will move 160 nm NE of Shemya at 986 mb
Friday afternoon. The low then moves 200 nm NE of Shemya at 990 mb
Saturday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171315-
Bristol Bay-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-171315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171315-
Unalaska Bay-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171315-
Adak to Kiska-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side... 16 ft Pacific 
side.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft Bering side... 16 ft Pacific side.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171315-
Kiska to Attu-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ181-171315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ185-171315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
406 PM AKDT Thu Apr 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 20 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKDT Wed Apr 15 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weak upper level trough continues to bring light showers to the
western Bering/Aleutians, however overall conditions remain quiet.
Steady rain is occurring farther east across the Alaska Peninsula
and extending through the Kuskokwim Delta in an extremely long
2500 mile southerly fetch of moisture originating from the
Hawaiian Islands. While the flow is slightly weaker to the east,
rain is also developing along the southern Gulf coast and will
continue to increase in intensity and move northward as the flow
aloft becomes stronger through the day. As such, temperatures will
remain slightly above normal with freezing levels shown at roughly
800mb across Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement synoptically. Timing of the
rainfall across Southcentral has come into consensus, however
total amounts between the models still slightly vary. All models
likewise indicate an upper level ridge developing in the wake of
the southerly fetch.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
morning. Rain will develop this afternoon, likely dropping both
ceilings and visibilities to MVFR conditions through Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Two different systems will impact Southcentral today. The first is
an upper level disturbance embedded in the large upper level
ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska. This wave is strongest over
the Prince William Sound region where it is bringing rainfall
this morning. It should move northeast and across the Alcan
border by this evening just in time for the next system to move
in.

This second system is the main one for the area with strong
southerly flow at the upper levels which is bringing in a large
amount of moisture. This front will make it into Kodiak early
this morning and proceed to move from west-to-east across
Southcentral through tonight. The rain is expected to begin this
afternoon and continue through the overnight hours with the
heaviest rain rates during the evening.

This front will also bring rain the the north Gulf coast with
amounts of an inch or more for today through Thursday expected
from Seward through Cordova.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Widespread rainfall will continue across Southwest Alaska today as
an upper level disturbance continues to cross over the region
throughout the day. Satellite imagery this morning showed this
impressive large plume of moisture spreading across Bristol Bay,
which will keep spreading north and eastward through the late
afternoon hours. Up to an addition half inch of new rainfall is
expected today before this system exits towards Southcentral
overnight tonight into Thursday morning.

Clearing conditions will move across interior Bristol Bay early
Thursday, while an upper level trough will keep lingering showers
across the Kuskokwim Delta throughout the day Thursday. A chance
for precipitation will return Thursday evening into Friday as a
front associated with a Bering low begins to push inland, which
will once again be a warm system accompanied by widespread rain
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

As the low over the eastern Bering continues to exit the region
this morning, the next system quickly moves in over the western
and central Aleutians by the afternoon hours. Gale force winds and
gusts will initially accompany this system as it moves across the
Aleutians, but will quickly weaken to small crafts as the front
begins to shear apart as it moves into the Bering. However, expect
strong southerly winds to gale force speeds out of bays and
passes along the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN as the system moves
eastward beginning Thursday morning through Friday. There is more
confidence in today's model runs that there will be widespread
small craft winds and rain showers as this front moves into the
eastern Bering and Aleutians through Friday.

&&

Marine Discussion (Days 3 - 5: Friday through Sunday)

Gulf of Alaska…

A dissipating front over the southwestern Gulf may produce near
gale force southeasterly winds through the Barren Islands and
southern Cook Inlet Saturday. Elsewhere no gales or high seas are
expected through Sunday. Confidence is low regarding gale
potential over the Barrens.

Bering Sea/ Aleutians…

A large low over the western Bering may produce low end gales
across the Eastern Aleutians on Friday, extending over the Central
Aleutians on Saturday. As another stronger North Pacific low
approaches the Aleutians on Sunday, gale force southeasterly winds
are expected over the Eastern Aleutians. Northerly gales are
expected over the Western Aleutians Sunday from the same low, with
a possibility of storm force gusts as well. Confidence increases
by Sunday on the likelihood of gales along the Aleutians.

&&

Long Term Discussion (Days 4 - 8: Saturday through Tuesday)

The upper level pattern of ridging with surface high pressure
over the Gulf of Alaska and troughing with low pressure over the
Bering will start out the long-term period on Saturday. A stronger
North Pacific low will approach the Aleutians on Sunday. The
models generally agree that this low will effectively shunt the
downstream ridging over the Gulf into North America, allowing the
Bering trough to move eastward into at least western Alaska by
Tuesday. How quickly this happens and if there is any phasing from
a deeper polar trough building into Northern Alaska at this time
remains highly uncertain. The GFS solution, on the one hand, keeps
a much stronger low nearly stationary over the central Aleutians
into Tuesday. Weak impulses moving northward will only nudge the
ridging over the Gulf eastward, which in turn would result in a
nearly steady-state forecast for much of Alaska into Tuesday. The
EC, on the other hand, has a much weaker low that is more
progressive, tracking largely south of the state and into the
Gulf on Tuesday, which would completely eliminate the effects of
the ridging currently over that area.

There is high confidence that through at least Sunday, the
weather pattern will be warm and wet over the western half of the
state, with cooler and wet conditions across the Bering and
Aleutians. Confidence diminishes for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 170 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW