Gale Warning 305, NWS Anchorage, AK

602 
FZAK61 PAFC 051206
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
406 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-060230-
406 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Westerly flow will persist between high pressure over the 
Pacific and low pressure over mainland Alaska. 

$$

PKZ351-060230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
406 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft building to 7 to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-060230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
406 AM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

883 
FZAK61 PAFC 052255
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
255 PM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-061300-
255 PM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A ridge of high pressure briefly builds across the Gulf Mon, before 
moving east of the region Tue afternoon. A front enters the southern 
Gulf Tue afternoon ahead of a deepening north Pacific low.

$$

PKZ351-061300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
255 PM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-061300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
255 PM AKDT Sun Apr 5 2020

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

429 
FZAK61 PAFC 061123
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 AM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-070200-
323 AM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A ridge of high pressure briefly builds across the southwestern 
Gulf today, before departing Tue afternoon. A front enters the 
southern Gulf Tues afternoon ahead of a deepening North Pacific 
low.

$$

PKZ351-070200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
323 AM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt becoming SE 10 to 25 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-070200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
323 AM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

869 
FZAK61 PAFC 062344
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-071315-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front enters the southwest Gulf Tue morning, then moves to the 
northern Gulf Tue evening. A 1002 mb low at 56N 152W Tue afternoon 
moves to 58N 147W at 991 mb Wed morning, then moves ashore Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-071315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-071315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 PM AKDT Mon Apr 6 2020

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

715 
FZAK61 PAFC 071136
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-080145-
336 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front enters the southwest Gulf Tue morning. The associated 
999 mb low moves to 56N 150W by Tue afternoon then moves to 
59N 148W at 987 mb by Wed morning. This low then weakens and 
moves inland near 59N 140W by Thu morning.

$$

PKZ351-080145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
336 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S to W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt 
after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-080145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
336 AM AKDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strongly organized upper level ridge has built in across most of
southern Alaska. Strong southwest surface flow is bringing plenty
of clouds and moisture over this ridge into western Alaska. The
Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim Valley are seeing rain in
temperatures just above freezing, while down in Bristol Bay
it's mostly clouds and some light snow in Iliamna. Temperatures
on the Aleutian chain are well above freezing as well, with Dutch
Harbor at 46 degrees, but things are much drier under the ridge
there. Across the way in southcentral, more clouds are spilling
over the front side of the aforementioned upper ridge with some
snow in the Susitna Valley and Anchorage Bowl.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model agreement is good on the Bering low that is expected to
move ashore in northwest Alaska Sunday morning. Unfortunately in
the wake of this low a wave develops into a closed low in the
western Bering and model discrepancies abound with the evolution
of this feature. A general thought is a closed low moving into
Bristol Bay Monday night. There is some agreement in the upper
levels for a jet max supporting this feature, so would like to
give models time to tune into a solution for the surface. Another
feature in the short term model analysis to look out for would be
the trough of low pressure pushing through Cook Inlet Sun morning.
At less than 48 hours out this feature is showing some
inconsistencies in its timing, which will impact timing and
duration of precipitation of course.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A flat upper level ridge will be over Southcentral Alaska through
tonight. Considerable clouds are expected, and even some
precipitation is possible. Any precipitation could be rain or
snow, with chances of all snow farther north and more rain mixed
in farther south. The ridge will slide east into Canada on Sunday
as an upper level low approaches from the west. A fairly strong
cold front will push through the area. This will bring some gusty
winds to the area on Sunday, and colder temperatures Sunday night.
Some precipitation is possible as well. Precipitation may start
as a mix of rain and snow, but should change to all snow by Sunday
night even for coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Saturday
through Monday night)...

A strong warm front has arrived over Southwest this morning.
Gusty southwesterly winds have picked up along the coast and
temperatures continue to warm to above freezing. The exception to
this is the Lower Kuskokwim Valley where it will take slightly
longer to erode cold air in place at the surface. For today,
expect rainy and windy conditions along the coast with the
possibility for a rain/snow mix this morning over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley before changing to rain by the afternoon. By this
evening, a strong cold front will come barreling through
Southwest. This will allow for a return to well-below-average
temperatures across the area. Strong, gusty, westerly winds will
persist overnight through Sunday morning, especially along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast. Models have suggested scattered snow
showers developing overnight through Sunday morning, leading to
the possibility for blowing snow and periods of reduced visibility
in localized areas along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Given the
localized nature of these conditions, and also no indication of
widespread precipitation during this time period, opted against an
advisory at this time. As this frontal boundary moves through the
area Sunday night, winds will eventually diminish by Monday
morning. Another weaker low looks to approach the Southwest coast
by Monday night. Colder air looks to remain in place across the
region at least through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday night)...

An upper level trough in place over the Bering will steer a
surface low currently centered over the northern Bering to the
northeast. Meanwhile, the associated warm front is lifting inland
over Southwest this morning, bringing strong gusty winds to the
eastern Bering. On the backside of this low, cold northerly flow
will fill in across the Bering from west to east this afternoon.
Gusty westerly flow and snow showers are expected across the
Aleutian Chain through late tonight. A second, weaker low develops
over the western Bering Sunday morning and reaches the central
Bering/Pribilof Islands by Monday morning. With plenty of cold
air in place, expect increasing chances of snow showers. This
weak low eventually tracks into the Bristol Bay area by Monday
night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday - Wednesday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

There is low confidence in the wind forecast on Monday as
guidance shows significant discrepancies in the placement and
intensity of a low in the central Bering. However, the winds are
expected to remain below gale force. These discrepancies continue
into Tuesday as guidance shows different solutions in the low
placement. Due to this, there is low confidence that strong
northwesterly gap winds will occur in Unimak Pass, though these
gap winds cannot be completely ruled out. As of now, it appears
that these winds will remain below gale force. There is also a low
confidence in the wind forecast across the western and central
Bering on Tuesday and Wednesday as a front moves through as
solutions vary significantly on the speed and intensity of this
front.

Gulf of Alaska:

Above average confidence exists in Monday's wind forecast as a
weak low is expected to develop in the northern Gulf. This low
will cause gale force northwesterly gap winds and increase the
chance of freezing spray as cold air advection will occur.
Confidence decreases significantly on Tuesday as an area of low
pressure moves into the western Gulf. Guidance shows different
solutions in the placement and intensity of this low. For now
winds appear to remain below gale force, however gale force winds
cannot be completely ruled out. Guidance is consistent with this
low deepening Tuesday into Wednesday and thus increases the
likelihood of gale force winds in the Gulf. However, there are
different solutions on the placement of the low center and thus
confidence is low with respect to the extent that these gale force
winds will occur.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Tuesday - Friday)...

Guidance has a decent handle on the overall upper level synoptic
pattern on Tuesday with an upper trough moving eastward over
Southwest Alaska and an upper ridge over the western Bering. Due
to this pattern, colder temperatures are expected over the Alaskan
mainland with warmer temperatures being expected in the western
Bering. There is consistency that the pattern will amplify on
Wednesday but there are significant differences with respect to
the extent this amplification will occur. There is a consistent
synoptic pattern that the upper trough will move over the eastern
Alaskan mainland while the upper ridge moves over the central
Aleutians. Temperatures will be coldest over the eastern mainland
and warmest in the central Aleutians, but there is a high degree
of uncertainty in the magnitude of these temperatures due to the
significant amplitudinal differences. The same theme is expected
for Thursday as the upper ridge moves over the southwestern
mainland, though significant amplitude differences are expected.
Generally, this trend means there is high confidence that a
gradual warming pattern is in store for the Alaskan mainland but
low confidence in the magnitude of this anticipated warm up.
Confidence becomes very low on Friday as guidance shows
significant differences in the upper level synoptic pattern and
thus result in significant differences in the synoptic pattern at
the surface.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 120 130 131 170 175 177 179 180 181 185 411
              412 413 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 180 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LTB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...EB