Gale Warning 286, NWS Anchorage, AK

424 
FZAK52 PAFC 212317
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221230-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure builds into the Bering through Sun evening before a
frontal boundary associated with a North Pacific low enters the
western Aleutians Sun evening and spreads across the western Bering
by Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221230-
Bristol Bay-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. Areas
of freezing fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ165-221230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of the Shumagin Islands...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 
15 kt after midnight. W of the Shumagin Islands...NW wind 15 kt
becoming variable 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221230-
Unalaska Bay-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt, except 15 kt E of Seguam Island. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221230-
Adak to Kiska-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft Bering side...16 ft Pacific side. 
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221230-
Kiska to Attu-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt, except variable 15 kt N of Cape Newenham. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt, except variable 10 kt S of Cape Newenham. Seas 
in ice free waters 1 foot. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.

$$

PKZ181-221230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ185-221230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
317 PM AKDT Sat Mar 21 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 
ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

352 
FZAK52 PAFC 221200
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-230045-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
High pressure remains in control across all of the Bering and 
Aleutians through Mon afternoon, before shifting south and east
Tue morning. A north Pacific low moves to 125 nm S of Amchitka at
1009 mb Mon evening, then moves to Amchitka Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-230045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-230045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 
ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-230045-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. Areas of
freezing fog.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-230045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-230045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-230045-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-230045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt, except 15 kt E of Seguam Island. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-230045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-230045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-230045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-230045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-230045-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-230045-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-230045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-230045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt, except variable 15 kt S of Cape Newenham. 
Seas in ice free waters 1 foot. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-230045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Freezing spray.
.MON...S wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt.
.WED...W wind 15 kt.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-230045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKDT Sun Mar 22 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
703 PM AKDT Fri Mar 20 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level short wave trough which brought snowfall to
Southcentral overnight has moved into western Canada. Subsidence
on the backside of the feature has brought some clearing to
Southcentral. Broad moist southwesterly flow in the lower levels
produced widespread stratus and some fog to much of Southwest
Alaska today. Abundant moisture associated with a broad frontal
zone is evident over the north Pacific. Satellite imagery shows a
well defined upper jet couplet with a band of cirrus extending
from over the central Aleutians, to the Kuskokwim Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models overall are in good synoptic agreement on the phasing of
the north pacific moisture feed and eastward moving upper short
wave across the Bering Sea/Mainland Alaska tonight and Saturday.
The challenge will be on snow amounts and precipitation types and
timing of the cold air across Southcentral Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected tonight. MVFR to IFR
conditions in snow will likely develop Saturday morning and
continue into the evening hours. Light winds are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
After a mild spring like day, a front is on tap to bring
widespread snow across Southcentral for Saturday. A long fetch of
subtropical moisture spreads clouds from the North Pacific in
advance of an approaching Bering front. The frontal boundary
should move across to the western Gulf and Cook Inlet early
Saturday morning spreading snow across the much of the region by
mid day. Snow develops a little later, Saturday evening, for the
Copper River Valley as the front focuses on a developing low over
the Central Gulf Saturday afternoon. Snow tapers off Saturday
night followed by dry conditions Sunday as a ridge builds from the
West. An offshore flow regime sets up Saturday night as we
transition from an exiting low to a building ridge. Gusty winds
through channeled terrain along the coasts are expected in
response with blowing snow possible in the Thompson Pass location.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
Snow will develop across Southwest Alaska late this evening and
persist through much of Saturday as a front tracks across the
region. Highest totals are expected over the Bristol Bay and
Middle Kuskokwim Valley areas near the base of a deep upper
through. However, these totals will likely not exceed 4 inches in
any populated areas. Skies will clear and temperatures will
slightly fall Sunday through Monday under strong high pressure.
Scattered snow showers will continue across the Middle Kuskokwim
Valley through Monday under a series of upper level shortwave
troughs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Rain will continue this evening across the eastern Aleutians as a
front quickly moves over the area. Strong high pressure will
develop Saturday afternoon and persist into Monday bringing mostly
clear and dry conditions. Showers will redevelop Monday afternoon
ahead of a low. Partly cloudy skies will continue across the
western Bering/Aleutians, with precipitation beginning Sunday
evening on the north side of the aforementioned North Pacific
low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Models remain in good agreement on a ridge of high pressure
remaining in place over the eastern Bering through the early part
of next week keeping the weather quiet. A weakening North Pacific
low continues moving northward over the central Aleutians Sunday
into Monday. This will create some elevated southeasterly winds
through gaps and passes along the central and eastern Aleutians
through Monday due to the tight pressure gradient with the strong
high over the eastern Bering. As this system weakens significantly
and the high moves eastward, generally quiet conditions area
expected across the Bering for Tuesday.

Meanwhile for the Gulf, a building high over the eastern Bering
and a departing low centered over the southeastern Gulf will
generate elevated winds through Sunday in usual gaps and passes,
including Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands. Winds will diminish
throughout the day on Monday as high pressure moves in, leading
to generally quiet conditions precipitation wise but a medium
pressure gradient will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night
leading to some areas of small craft advisory winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
There remains strong confidence that a strong upper level ridge
will be in place over the southern half of the state early next
week. An upper level low is expected to move north towards the
central Aleutians from the North Pacific weakening as it does so.
This upper level low will eventually force the ridge to weaken
and move southward by midweek, opening up a zonal flow pattern
aloft. By the end of the week, models continue to suggest a
strong low will approach the Bering from the west with a track
just west of the Aleutian Chain. There still remains uncertainty
with the exact placement of the low but models continue to show
better agreement on this feature leading to moderate confidence in
the forecast.

Further east across South Central and Southwest Alaska, models
are in disagreement on what the upper level pattern may look like
across the Mainland. Some guidance shows an upper level trough
diving southward while other guidance shows an upper level ridge
leading to a tough temperature forecast. Also of note, each model
differs on the strength of this upper level trough leading to low
confidence in the long term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 130>132 136 150.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 139 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...MV