Gale Warning 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

979 
FZAK52 PAFC 141142
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150100-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A weak front will remain stationary from near Atka to near Saint
Lawerance Island through Sun morning, before dissipating by Mon 
morning. A north Pacific low moves to 260 nm SW of Nikolski at 
1007 mb Sun morning, then merges with at 1010 mb low 255 nm SE of
Nikolski Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-150100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150100-
Bristol Bay-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ165-150100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt, except variable 10 kt E of Port Moller. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt, except variable 10 kt E of Port Moller. 
Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt, except variable 10 kt E of Port Moller. Seas 5
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150100-
Unalaska Bay-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150100-
Adak to Kiska-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150100-
Kiska to Attu-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt, except 15 kt S of Cape Newenham.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-150100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-150100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
342 AM AKDT Sat Mar 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...variable 10 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 7 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Looking at the numerical analysis, quite an impressive ridge
encompasses much of the state. It shows a slightly negative tilt
to a ridge axis that stretched from a 576 dam centered south of
Kodiak Island, northward towards Utqiagvik. A strong moisture plume
flanking this ridge can be seen on this morning's water vapor and
infra-red satellite imagery, as it shows a tropical feed from
Micronesia all the way to the Chukchi Sea, then curving eastward
towards the coastal and offshore waters of the north Slope.

To the east of this moisture surge, but southwest of the Kodiak
high, is a quasi-stationary cutoff area of low pressure, creating
a pseudo Rex Block (when an area of low pressure sits directly
under and area of high pressure).

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical guidance remains in very good agreement with their
solutions at the surface and aloft. This gives above normal
forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds with VFR conditions will persist through the
forecast period. With an abundance of dry air in place at the
surface and aloft, any low stratus or ground fog potential should
remain very limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday)...

Dry conditions and slowly warming temperatures will be the story
for the next few days. A strong upper level ridge centered south
of Kodiak this morning will set up shop over the Gulf later today,
then remain in place through the weekend. A shield of cirrus
clouds moving over top of the ridge will cross Southcentral this
morning, but then quickly exit as the ridge shifts eastward. Thus,
expect abundant sunshine across the region for the next few days.
Both high and low temperatures will tick upward each day,
approaching average temperatures for this time of year by Sunday.
Based on the position of the ridge, some component of offshore
flow will persist, which will maintain a surface trough along
the northern to eastern Gulf coast. This little bit of pressure
gradient will keep some gap winds going along the coast, albeit
on the weak side as far as these winds go.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Much of Southwest Alaska will remain quiet through the weekend
northwest of strong high pressure centered in the Gulf.
Temperatures are expected to rise above seasonal averages into the
upper 20s and low 30s. No precipitation is expected

A north-south oriented warm front will track across Nunivak
Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast today. There is a chance of
brief freezing rain this afternoon and evening for areas mainly
between Hooper Bay and Kipnuk. Forecast NAM soundings indicate
slightly above-freezing temperatures between 850 and 925
millibars with below freezing temperatures at the surface. In any
case, it will likely not be an all freezing rain event, with other
model profiles below freezing at all levels through Saturday
morning. As such, snow should remain the dominant precipitation
type over this time period, with highest accumulations near
Hooper Bay. Blowing snow is also likely with wind gusts expected
to exceed 30 mph at times. The exact timing of the changeover to
rain remains somewhat uncertain. Strong southerly flow aloft may
lead to this being earlier than expected, however there is high
confidence of it becoming all rain by Saturday afternoon. The
rain will gradually taper to showers on Sunday as the front
weakens.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A front will stall over the central Bering/Aleutians through this
weekend between two high pressure systems. Gusty southerly winds
are expected. This will likewise advect a large swath of moisture
into the area, originating from the Central Pacific. Unalaska in
particular will see steady rain over the coming days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue)...

A low near the eastern Aleutians on Sunday will produce near gale
force winds, which will diminish Sunday night as the low weakens
and moves south. A front in the western Aleutians and western
Bering Sunday into Monday could produce gale force southerly winds.
A stronger front is expected in the western and central Aleutians on
Tuesday, but the timing and strength of this system is still
uncertain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu)...

The forecast period begins on Monday with an upper level ridge
and surface high over the northern Gulf of Alaska extending into
the southern mainland and eastern Bering Sea. A storm system
near the central and eastern Aleutians is forecast to weaken and
slide northeast, reaching southwest Alaska on Tuesday. This system
will then "top the ridge" on Wednesday and drop into the far
eastern Gulf or the Alaska Peninsula. The ridge will then push
back into southern Alaska, sliding east Wednesday and Thursday.
This will open up southwesterly flow aloft over southern Alaska,
bringing good chances of precipitation to the entire area.
Temperatures across southern Alaska will also warm through the
period, with above normal temperatures expected in southwest
Alaska through the period, and above normal across Southcentral
by mid-week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 165 170
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL