Gale Warning 258, NWS Anchorage, AK

719 
FZAK51 PAFC 061235
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070115-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 999 mb low 260 nm SW of Akhiok this morning will move 
southeastward into the North Pacific tonight. A second 1009 
mb low 140 nm SW of Sitka this morning will drift 120 nm east of
Middleton Island at 1012 mb Saturday morning. A front then moves 
northeastward across the Gulf Saturday afternoon into Sunday 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-070115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray near the coast this morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070115-
Resurrection Bay-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020


.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray this 
morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070115-
Prince William Sound-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of northern bays and passes 
this morning. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070115-
Port Valdez-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020


.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070115-
Valdez Narrows-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070115-
Valdez Arm-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Heavy
freezing spray this morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070115-
Passage Canal-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070115-
Barren Islands East-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070115-
Chiniak Bay-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070115-
Marmot Bay-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070115-
Shelikof Strait-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-070115-
Kachemak Bay-
335 AM AKST Fri Mar 6 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern continues to remain amplified as the jetstream remains
in a south to north orientation extending from the subtropical
Pacific through the central Bering/Aleutians into Southwestern
Alaska; before sharply extending southeastward into the North
Pacific. A 993 mb low located near the western Aleutians will
continue to move northeastward into the Bering. A ridge-axis
associated with a strong 1040 mb high over the North Pacific is
moving eastward into Bristol Bay. A strong 975 mb low is currently
stationary in the southeastern Gulf.

At the surface, a 1035 mb high is currently over the interior of
Alaska. Strong winds are observed in Thompson Pass, Valdez and the
Matanuska Valley as a strong southeast to northwest pressure
gradient is present combined with a cold dense airmass in the
Copper River Basin.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are generally in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern across the area at both the surface and upper-levels for
the short-term. Models then begin to show significant differences
by Saturday with the placement of a low in the Bering. Mesoscale models
were favored for local effects due the higher resolution of these
models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditionss continue for this TAF package as ceilings
remain unlimited and visibility unrestricted. North winds at
15-20kts may gust 25-30kts at times. Winds begin to ease
at 21z and and become light at 00z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Outflow and local gap winds will be the main weather concerns
today. An upper low over the eastern Gulf weakens as the ridge to
the west builds east. A northerly upper jet between these two
features has setup over Southcentral and will move slowly east.
At the surface, cold air continues to spill into Southcentral and
through gaps in the Aleutian Range today which keeps a fairly
strong thermal gradient between the maritime and continental air
masses. This combined with strong pressure gradients and favorable
upper support will continue brisk gap winds through the evening
hours. The strongest winds will be along the North Gulf Coast
where warning level gusts could potentially continue into the
early evening hours across the Valdez zone and through the Copper
River Delta. Outflow and gap winds will likely diminish in most
areas overnight and be comparatively light on Friday. Cooling
temperatures and gusty winds will continue moderate wind chills
into the evening hours before gap winds diminish.

A weakening surface front and advancing upper trough will bring
clouds and chances of snow to Southcentral Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Areas of fog have been observed on satellite and confirmed with
observations this morning from Bethel to the Kuskokwim coast.
Otherwise, clear and dry conditions are expected to persist
across the rest of southwest Alaska through Friday morning as an
area of high pressure remains over the region. By late Friday
morning, snow is expected to develop along the coast as a
weakening frontal system approaches from the eastern Bering. The
upper level energy associated with this feature will shear apart
and move southeast preventing any precipitation from moving very
far inland. Widespread snow, however, is expected to develop by
Saturday morning as a second shortwave propagates southeast from
the northern Bering. Snow will then remain across the southwest
through late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A pressure gradient between a ridge over the central Aleutians
and a trough in the Gulf remains strong. Therefore, storm force,
northwesterly wind gusts will continue through the bays and passes
on the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula through early this
morning. These winds will subside today as the ridge propagates
eastward and weakens as it moves inland over southwest Alaska.

Upstream of the ridge, a gale force front over the western and
central Bering will move into the eastern Bering by this
afternoon. Ahead of the front, strong southerly flow will bring
warm and moist conditions to the central and eastern Aleutians.
Expect temperatures nearing the 40s and snow transitioning to
rain. The front then looks to move across the Pribilofs tonight as
it enters the eastern Bering. Warm advection aloft will not
propagate that far north, keeping temperatures near freezing for
the islands. Expect precipitation to stay all snow, with 3 to 5
inches of accumulation possible by early Friday morning. Blowing
snow is also possible in areas due to higher gusts. The low will
then begin to weaken and shear apart as it reaches southwest
Alaska by Friday afternoon.

A front associated with the next low will move across the central
and eastern Bering and Aleutian Chain by early Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sat through Mon)...

Gale force winds are not expected for this weekend into Monday.
The most active weather will be in over the Bering Sea and
Aleutians, where a low moving across the Bering will produce
winds that will stay just below Gale. Model uncertainty is high
enough that this system has the potential to produce gales.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Saturday through Wednesday)...

An more active pattern is expected to develop across Southcentral.
Confidence is growing for possible snow beginning Saturday morning as
a weak upper level trough moves over the region. A second
shortwave trough will track over Southcentral through Sunday,
likely bringing another round of snow. The main trough and
associated upper low will move near Prince William Sound Monday
into Tuesday. The GFS model stalls this low and continues
indicating precipitation though Wednesday, while the European and
Canadian models shows the low departing much more quickly. In any
case, while confidence is above average for accumulating snow in
the more active pattern, it is too early to determine exact timing
and amounts.

Across the Bering, the models begin Saturday in very good
agreement, with a low over the western Bering and the leading
front near the Pribilofs that moves into Southwest Alaska during
the day. Model agreement diminishes by Sunday evening, with the
models indecisive on whether the Bering low moves into Southwest
Alaska during the day, or if it remains out over the Bering. After
that, a short period of cold northerly flow returns by Monday. How
long the cold air lasts and when the next round of unsettled
weather impacts the area remain questions that involve significant
uncertainty. In summary, this weekend will be quite unsettled over
much of the area, with generally colder and quieter weather
returning heading into the workweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131.
         Wind Chill Advisory 145.
         High Wind Warning 131.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 121 125 126 128 130 137 138 352 150
         170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 411 412 413 414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 120 121 125 126 127 128
         129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 141 150 165 180 185.
         Storm Warning 127 131 132.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL/AP/JW