Gale Warning 238, NWS Anchorage, AK

851 
FZAK62 PAFC 282344
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291315-
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 mb low will develop at 60N 172E Sunday afternoon and then move
over eastern Russia Monday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray N of 57N. 
Snow with rain S of 55N.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming SW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. Rain in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray in
the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

240 
FZAK62 PAFC 291132
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300245-
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Aleutians continues moving east towards 
the central Aleutians and Bering by Mon morning then weakens over
the eastern Bering by Tue morning. High pressure moves in Mon 
afternoon through Tue morning. 

$$

PKZ411-300245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray 
in the morning. Rain and snow in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow .
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray, 
except heavy freezing spray N of 56N.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray, 
except heavy freezing spray N of 57N. Snow.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

061 
FZAK62 PAFC 292336
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-301315-
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Bering and Aleutians this afternoon 
will move over the eastern Aleutians Mon afternoon, then
dissipate. A 1011 mb low will develop at 53N 165W Mon evening and 
move to 55N 165W at 1010 mb Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-301315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-301315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming SW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-301315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-301315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
336 PM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2020

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

552 
FZAK62 PAFC 301153
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-310115-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the central Bering Mon morning moves into the eastern
Bering by Mon afternoon and then weakens through Tue morning. A
1011 mb North Pacific low Mon morning moves to 53N 165W at 1011 mb
by Tue morning and then to 57N 163W at 1012 mb by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ411-310115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt becoming SW up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-310115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ413-310115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-310115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
353 AM AKDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 to 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 PM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong blocking ridge is centered over the north central Pacific,
with a trough over mainland Alaska. The jetstream extends northward
up the west side of the ridge to the Aleutians, then turns eastward,
with zonal flow from the eastern Bering Sea to the Gulf of Alaska.
A gale force low over the northern Bering Sea is tracking eastward
toward the west coast of Alaska. The original frontal system from
this low has weakened considerably as it pushed inland across
Southwest Alaska and into the western Gulf today. What remains is
some areas of light snow, particularly along the west side of the
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges, with some light snow on the Kenai
Peninsula and rain down over the Gulf. Another round of snow is
making its way onshore along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the low
center approaches. This is accompanied by strong and gusty winds
due to cold air advection and instability, leading to areas of
blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

Cold air advection extends south of the low center (over the
northern Bering) eastward across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Southwest Gulf. This is producing strong gap winds (up to storm
force) along the Alaska Peninsula. Meanwhile, due to the
combination of Arctic air in the Copper River Basin and tight
pressure gradients from there down to the Gulf, gap winds are also
affecting portions of the Matanuska Valley, the Valdez area, and
the Copper River Delta.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in better (but not perfect) agreement with the many
short-waves transiting the eastern Bering Sea, southern Alaska,
and Gulf of Alaska tonight through Saturday. Therefore, confidence
in the snow accumulation forecast for both Southwest and Southcentral
has increased.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...A short-wave crossing the Alaska Range this evening will
clip Anchorage, with light snow likely at the terminal this
evening through the overnight hours. With weak forcing and low
level westerly flow (favoring snow along the mountains), expect
ceiling/vis to bottom out at MVFR. There is also a chance that
most of the snow falls east of the terminal and VFR conditions
prevail for much of this time. No matter what, offshore flow will
develop during the day Saturday causing ceilings to lift. The
passage of an upper short-wave tomorrow afternoon combined with
cold air advection will lead to increasing northerlies, likely
becoming gusty after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Elevated winds along the northern Gulf coast continue to
gradually weaken as a surface low drifts toward the southeastern
Gulf. A weak frontal boundary associated with an upper level
trough has moved in over Southcentral, producing mostly virga this
afternoon. Snow becomes increasingly likely this evening, with
accumulations on the order of trace to 2 inches possible overnight
into Saturday morning. The upper level low then deepens and moves
southward over the Gulf, leading to another outflow wind event
Saturday night. As the low pulls away, cold Arctic air will be
drawn down from the north, lowering temperatures and allowing
northerly winds to pick up Saturday night. Areas including Seward,
Palmer, Valdez, and the Copper River Basin will once again see
elevated gusty winds Saturday into Sunday. Skies are expected to
clear for the rest of the weekend and into early next week as
colder northerly flow persists.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

A low moving into Southwest Alaska from the northern Bering is
causing snow to redevelop across the Kuskokwim Delta this
afternoon. The low will track southeastward across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay tonight into Saturday morning. 1 to 3 inches
of snow are possible overnight tonight across many areas of
Southwest Alaska. Behind the low, strong north to northwesterly
winds following the low will cause snow to blow around, which may
temporarily reduce visibilities to one half mile at times. The
Winter Weather Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta therefore remains
in effect until 7am Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, the
snow will largely end from northwest to southeast, though upslope
snow showers over the Kuskokwim Mountains and Alaska Range will
persist throughout the day. The primary effect of the weather on
Saturday will be colder air building southward across Southwest
Alaska and gradually clearing skies. Due to the strong late March
sunshine, it will likely take until Saturday night for the really
cold temperatures to be felt.

Polar high pressure builds into Southwest Alaska on Sunday and
Monday. This will lead to temperatures falling to between zero and
10 above for low temperatures in most locations, while highs
during the day rise to near 30, once again due to the strong late
March sunshine, which should be abundant both days under sunny
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

A low over the northern Bering will move into Southwest Alaska
tonight, as high pressure builds over the western Bering. A front
moves into the central and western Bering Saturday afternoon,
which will dissipate on Sunday. A second stronger front moves
east into the western Aleutians and western Bering late Saturday
night. It will weaken as it moves to the Pribilofs and eastern
Aleutians on Monday. Most models suggest a weak low develops along
that front near Cold Bay Monday afternoon, but there are some
discrepancies on that.

The strong winds and cold temperatures behind the low tonight and
Saturday will produce areas of heavy freezing spray, which will
spread north to south across the eastern Bering through the Alaska
Peninsula. This could become impactful to shipping in these areas,
particularly south of the Alaska Peninsula, where cold air and
strong winds together have been absent for quite a while.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians...
A storm system will track across the western to central Bering on
Sunday. There is uncertainty in the exact track of the low center,
but high confidence in widespread small craft winds with gales
likely near the low center. The eastern Bering will likely see
minimal impacts from this, as most model solutions track the low
to the northern Bering, or even into Russia. Forecast confidence
for Monday/Tuesday drops significantly, although it doesn't look
like any major storm systems will affect the region.

Gulf of Alaska...
There is a high confidence in gap winds along the Gulf coast on
Sunday. These will diminish by Monday and the overall weather
pattern looks quiet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Friday)...

Guidance is consistent with the overall synoptic pattern on Sunday
with an upper level trough over the Alaska mainland while upper
level ridging slowly moves eastward across the central and eastern
Bering. This will result in cold temperatures across the
mainland. A high confidence exists with a warming trend in
temperatures across the Alaska mainland in particular Southwest
Alaska Sunday through Tuesday. However, there is low confidence
with respect to the magnitude of the expected warm up as there are
discrepancies between guidance with how fast this ridge is
moving. The GFS appears to have the fastest bias as the GEM and
ECMWF show the upper trough extending into the Ahklun Mountains
while the GFS has the trough only extending to the eastern AKPEN.
More significant differences between guidance arise on Wednesday
with respect to the amplitude of the upper ridge over Southcentral
Alaska. This means that there is a low confidence in the
temperature forecast as the placement of this upper ridge affects
the placement of the surface ridging and thus causing major
discrepancies in the temperature forecast. One area of confidence
for this period is the weather is expected to remain benign across
Southcentral during this time as high pressure will be over the
area. Significant discrepancies continue on Thursday and Friday
and thus the forecast confidence remains very low for this period
at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155
MARINE...Gale 127 132 138 150 185
Heavy Freezing Spray 119 140 160 180 181 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...SB/ED