Gale Warning 235, NWS Anchorage, AK

867 
FZAK62 PAFC 261143
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270215-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Bering and Aleutians this morning will 
move eastward into the central Bering and Aleutians by Thu
afternoon and then moves into Bristol Bay for Fri. 

$$

PKZ411-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon.
Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt after
midnight.
Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

575 
FZAK62 PAFC 261158 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270215-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Bering and Aleutians this morning will 
move eastward into the central Bering and Aleutians by Thu
afternoon and then moves into Bristol Bay for Fri. 

$$

PKZ411-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

280 
FZAK62 PAFC 262341
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
Issued by National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271445-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Bering and Aleutians this afternoon will 
strengthen to a 995 mb low over the N Bering Sea Fri afternoon, then
move inland across Sat morning. A front will move into the W Bering 
Sea Sat.

$$

PKZ411-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 35 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N.
.SAT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

181 
FZAK62 PAFC 271121
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280145-
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 62N 179W Fri morning moves inland near 61N 165W by
Sat morning. The associated front over the eastern Bering weakens
through Sun morning. A front moves into the western Bering Sat
afternoon and persists through Sun.

$$

PKZ411-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E after midnight. 
Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 0 to 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 AM AKDT Wed Mar 25 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough is over the Bering early this morning
with a closed low center near the Pribilof Islands. Nearly zonal
flow is noted over the southern mainland and Gulf of Alaska with
abundant moisture streaming overhead from the Bering. At the
surface, a remnant frontal boundary is draped over the Southwest.
Rain and snow continues to develop across this region as embedded
disturbances aloft propagate away from the Bering low. Otherwise,
relatively benign conditions across the southern mainland this
morning under weak surface flow. Temperatures range from the 20s
to mid 30s across the forecast area with slightly warmer
temperatures between 30 to 45 degrees for marine areas.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in relatively good agreement through the end of the
work week. High resolution models were used to refine stronger
gap flow Thursday and Friday across Southcentral locations. A
blend of the NAM and GFS were used for updates across the
Southwest and Bering which handles a fast moving front across the
Northern Bering on Thursday. There are some timing differences as
this system moves across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
mainland on Friday, so refining is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the next TAF package;
however, a few weak upper level disturbances may briefly bring
ceilings down today. A mention of vicinity fog was included for
Thursday morning as skies scatter out with a building ridge from
the interior. Winds will be relatively light through late Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A moist trough moves east across Southcentral today. The 850 to
700 mb flow will be generally from the west today. So it looks
like the best shot at accumulating snow will be along the
Talkeetna Mountains and upslope areas along the Chugach Mountains.
Temperatures at lower elevations will generally be in the 30s so
expect mixed precipitation types from the Kenai Peninsula, across
the Anchorage Bowl/Matanuska Valley, to the southern Susitna Valley.
Drying occurs overnight as the trough clears the area leading to
gusty outflow conditions across the north Gulf Coastal locations
and Barren islands through Thursday. Patchy fog is also expect
tonight from the Kenai Peninsula to the MAT-SU Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low moving across the Bering this morning will open
up to an open wave as it continues east. As a result, rain showers
will continue to impact Southwest Alaska with temperatures
remaining above freezing due to cloud cover in place and not much
in the way of any temperature advection across the area.

As the upper trough continues moving to the south and east, it
will take the precipitation with it causing the region to dry out
except for the Kilbuck Mountains, Alaska Range, and Aleutian Range
where enough orographic lift will be occurring to keep rain/snow
showers in the forecast. Weak cold advection is expected
Wednesday night into Thursday allowing temperatures to fall back
down to the upper 20s and near freezing.

Zonal flow aloft is expected for Thursday keeping the area quiet.
Attention then turns to the next weather system that will move
into the region Thursday night into Friday. A system moving north
through the North Pacific will cross the Northern Bering and
strengthen as it passes over St. Matthew Island which will
bring snow to much of Southwest Alaska. As of now it appears the
snowfall will remain below advisory criteria for all areas but
this will continue to be monitored.

Behind this low, an upper level trough will dive southeast
bringing strong cold air advection throughout Southwest Alaska
which will bring colder temperatures and strong gusty winds for
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level low swirling over the Bering will continue moving
east becoming an open wave Wednesday morning. A weak upper level
ridge will build over the Bering during the day Wednesday bringing
quieter weather and light winds.

A second low tracking well west of Attu Island will bring a front
into the western Aleutians and the western Bering Wednesday night.
This front will continue moving across the Aleutian Chain through
the day on Thursday. The aforementioned low will move into the
northern Bering Thursday night into Friday and strengthen. Strong
high pressure will move in behind the low on Friday night ushering
in a polar air mass with strong winds expected out of the AKPEN
gaps and passes.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Gale force southerly winds are expected across the western
Bering/Aleutians on Thursday. Gale force northwesterly gap winds
are also expected in the western Gulf on Thursday. Forecast
confidence for Thursday remains high. Gale force west-
southwesterly winds are expected across the central/eastern Bering
and Pribilof Islands Friday morning. Only moderate confidence
exists on Friday and Saturday for funneling westerly winds through
Unimak Pass. High confidence exists for gale force winds in the
western Gulf on Saturday with low confidence in storm force gap
winds along the AKPEN. There is also the potential for 20-25ft
long period northwesterly seas in the western Gulf on Saturday,
though confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Strong confidence exists in upper level ridging persisting across
the Alaskan mainland on Thursday. The upper level ridging will be
strongest across the southwestern portion of the mainland and
thus temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal. However,
this upper level ridging will be of short duration as an upper
trough will move into the western mainland Friday afternoon ahead
of a surface cold front. As a result, temperatures across the
southern Alaskan mainland will fall as a much colder airmass from
Siberia moves into the region. Forecast confidence decreases
into the weekend as significant differences arise between
guidance. The only area of congruence between guidance is the
jetstream remaining south of the Alaskan mainland which will allow
for colder temperatures. Confidence remains very low Sunday
onward as there is a significant amount of disagreement between
guidance with respect to the place of upper level synoptic
features which leads to a strong disagreement in the placement of
surface features.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MV
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED