Gale Warning 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 200035
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-201400-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weather front will cross the Gulf from southwest to northeast
tonight through Thu morning. A 967 mb low near Cape Constantine 
Thu morning will move to near Whittier late Thu evening at 976 
mb, then will become stationary and slowly fill to 988 mb by Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-201400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-201400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-201400-
Resurrection Bay-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ125-201400-
Prince William Sound-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft 
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-201400-
Port Valdez-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-201400-
Valdez Narrows-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-201400-
Valdez Arm-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-201400-
Passage Canal-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-201400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. Snow 
with rain.
.THU NIGHT...N 20 kt in the evening becoming W 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ131-201400-
Barren Islands East-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ132-201400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 15 
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ136-201400-
Chiniak Bay-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ137-201400-
Marmot Bay-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Snow with rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ138-201400-
Shelikof Strait-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ139-201400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray N of Anchor Point in the 
morning. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming SW wind 25 
kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. 
Freezing spray after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-201400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.THU NIGHT...Variable 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt.
.MON...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-201400-
Kachemak Bay-
335 PM AKST Wed Feb 19 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray after midnight.
Rain changing to snow after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKST Tue Feb 18 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a strong and nearly vertically stacked low in the Gulf
moving rapidly northward. Storm force winds are occurring along
the north Gulf coast ahead of this low. There is also a
significant amount of moisture associated with this low, with
areas of moderate to heavy snow over much of Southcentral. There
is a vertically stacked low centered over the Yukon Delta that is
moving northward. Some showers and breezy conditions associated
with this low remain over southwest Alaska. Flow aloft over the
Bering Sea is westerly and flat, with some showers evident. An
east to west oriented front is bringing some winds and
precipitation (mainly snow) to the central and western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through Thursday
afternoon. One exception to this is with the low currently in the
Gulf, with the NAM faster bringing it north compared to the other
models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...IFR conditions in snow are expected into the early morning
hours Wednesday. Conditions should improve to MVFR during the late
morning, and then to VFR in the early afternoon as the snowfall
diminishes then ends.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The frontal zone that brought snow to much of Southcentral Alaska
has shifted to the west over the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon. A
surface low is currently developing along this front and will
bring a gale-force front to the north Gulf Coast this evening.
That system will continue to shift the frontal band to the west
while lightening the snow over the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska
Valley. As that surface low moves into Prince William Sound, cold
air will come up Cook Inlet and return a final burst of snow
through Wednesday morning before tapering off for most inland
locations. Snow showers will linger along the Gulf Coast through
Wednesday evening.

Yet another front enters the Gulf on Wednesday night. The gale-
force front will again ramp up gap winds in favored areas, but
look to be weaker than the previous system. Conditions are not as
favorable to get winds to come down the Hillside again, but
Turnagain Arm should still be very gusty. Overall, expect near
normal to slightly above normal temperatures and chances for snow
inland with a mix of rain and snow along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

A low that has been impacting Southwest Alaska for the last couple
days is slowly moving up the west coast this afternoon, and is
approaching Norton Sound. The southwesterly onshore flow continues
across much of Southwest Alaska as the precipitation associated
with the low weakens. This should make for favorable conditions
for fog and low stratus to develop across much of the area
tonight. Otherwise quiet weather will persist through most of the
day on Wednesday.

The next low will approach the area Wednesday evening. There is
some disagreement in the track of the center, but most of the
models bring it up into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This low will
bring another round of snow to much of Bristol Bay. Depending on
those differences in track, portions of the area could become
windy enough, especially north and west of the low track, to
experience blowing snow overnight. Currently the greatest threat
is around the Dillingham area. A Winter Weather Advisory may be
required for blowing snow if model consistency remains good. The
low center will shift into the Gulf on Thursday, and stall out
there. This will keep snow showers ongoing over the area both on
Thursday and Friday.

The next big weather story will be the influx of much colder air
into Southwest Alaska during the day on Thursday. This will result
in falling temperatures through the day on Thursday, with below
zero temperatures returning to the Kuskokwim Delta Thursday night,
and the cold air moves into the rest of Southwest Alaska by
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

The main weather stories across the Bering will be a new low
tracking along the Aleutians, and the cold air it brings south
into the Bering behind it. The low is currently moving into the
central and western Aleutians, then will move across the islands
Wednesday morning, then tracks along the north side of the
eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Wednesday afternoon, then
moves into Bristol Bay Wednesday night. This low will bring a
round of rain and snow to the islands ahead of it, then all snow
is expected behind the low. Since the low will be fast moving, no
one area is expected to pick up more than a couple inches of snow
in a brief hit as the low moves by. The bigger story will be the
much colder air moving in behind the low. This will likely return
nearly all of the Bering to widespread snow showers. The core of
the coldest air will shift eastward into Southwest Alaska by
Friday evening. Meanwhile across the western Bering, compact lows
spinning up in the cold air will produce brief periods of gusty
winds and snows as they move by Thursday and Friday, but exact
tracks of those lows remain highly uncertain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Fri through Sun)...
Friday night through Saturday night, Gale force west to northwest
winds are expected over the Gulf and south of the Alaska
Peninsula. A storm system moving into the western and central
Aleutians on Saturday will produce gale force winds, which will
slide into the eastern Aleutians on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sat through Tue)...
On Saturday morning the pattern will consist of an upper level
trough over southwest Alaska extending southeastward into the Gulf
of Alaska. The trough will very slowly slide northeast across
southern Alaska through Sunday then exit into Canada Sunday night
as the main upper low retreats northward. A weak ridge will then
build over southern Alaska Sunday night, sliding eastward on
Monday. An upper level low just south of the western Aleutians on
Saturday will move eastward through Sunday, moving north into the
central Aleutians on Monday, then into the southern Bering Tuesday.
The exact path and timing of this feature is somewhat uncertain
at this time.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW 101 111 121 145.
MARINE...Storms 119. Gales 120 125 130-132 150 155 170 172-178 351
                           352 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JW
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL