Gale Warning 178, NWS Anchorage, AK

536 
FZAK51 PAFC 151457 CCA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160145-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 998 mb low over Middleton Island remains nearly
stationary through Sat night and then moves east and inland. A 
strong front enters the western Gulf Sun night.

$$

PKZ119-160145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind to 15 kt except NE 20 kt near the Copper River
Delta. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160145-
Resurrection Bay-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160145-
Prince William Sound-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160145-
Port Valdez-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160145-
Valdez Narrows-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160145-
Valdez Arm-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160145-
Passage Canal-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier.Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160145-
Barren Islands East-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160145-
Chiniak Bay-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160145-
Marmot Bay-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160145-
Shelikof Strait-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...NE wind to 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft building to 6 ft
in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt.
.WED...S wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-160145-
Kachemak Bay-
557 AM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

965 
FZAK51 PAFC 160024
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161330-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A weak trough of low pressure will persist over the northern Gulf
through Sun. A front will enter the southern Gulf Sun morning and
track to the northern Gulf Sun evening. A much stronger front will
move into the western Gulf Sun night through Mon.

$$

PKZ119-161330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind to 15 kt except NE wind 20 kt near the 
Copper River Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161330-
Resurrection Bay-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161330-
Prince William Sound-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161330-
Port Valdez-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161330-
Valdez Narrows-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161330-
Valdez Arm-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161330-
Passage Canal-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161330-
Barren Islands East-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161330-
Chiniak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain with
snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161330-
Marmot Bay-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161330-
Shelikof Strait-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to 6 ft
in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Snow.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt.
.WED...S wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-161330-
Kachemak Bay-
324 PM AKST Sat Feb 15 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large area of low pressure over the central Bering is currently moving
northeastward. An occluded front associated with this low is
currently bringing areas of light snow and freezing drizzle across
the Kuskokwim Delta and over northern Bristol Bay. Upper-level
ridging is gradually shifting eastward across mainland Alaska. The
polar jet remains south of the Aleutians and then extends
northeastward into southeastern Alaska. A triple point low east
of Kodiak is moving northeastward in the Gulf of Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through
Saturday. However, discrepancies begin on Sunday with a
developing low over the western Bering/Aleutians. After Sunday,
models show a series of lows moving northeastward across the
Bering/Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska with significant differences
in intensity and storm track. Due to the widespread variation
between guidance, the forecast confidence after Sunday remains
low. A couple areas of confidence after Sunday are that the
weather pattern will be active, and warmer temperatures are likely
Monday and Tuesday. High resolution models were preferred in the
short term for this forecast package to resolve local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3...Tonight through Monday)...

A dissipating occluded front will continue to bring some very
light snow to the southern end of the Kenai Peninsula through
early this evening. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge that brought
cool and dry conditions along with offshore flow will move
over Southcentral tonight, helping to end any remaining gap winds
along Prince William Sound. The ridge will exit northward on
Tuesday as a broad trough with weak short-waves move in from the
Bering Seas. None of these waves looks strong enough to produce
much, if, any precipitation. Thus, weather looks to remain quiet
over Southcentral with continued mostly dry and cool conditions
through Sunday morning.

The zonal flow aloft that has been persistent with the pattern
the last couple days will rapidly amplify beginning Saturday night
near the western Aleutians. This amplification of the pattern
will send a warm front northward across Kodiak Island and the
western Gulf on Sunday. Precipitation will start as snow, but
transition to rain as warmer air moves northward. This warm front
will continue northward into Southcentral Sunday night into
Monday, bringing areas of light snow. Temperatures will begin to
rise, but will remain below freezing across all but perhaps the
southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Increased chances for snow continues as a parent low over the
western Bering sends several upper level waves over the Southwest
as it lifts north this weekend. A front across the region from
near Aniak to Iliamna weakens through the evening, however
isolated to scattered showers will develops along this boundary
as short waves moves overhead. A secondary front pushes to the
southwest coast just before midnight tonight, then continues
slowly eastward through Saturday.

The next better organized front develops on Sunday morning along
the southern Bering lifting north across the Alaska Peninsula in
the afternoon. Precipitation will spread across Bristol Bay
Sunday evening, progressing northward across the Kuskokwim Valley
and Delta overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A 970 mb low over the central Bering weakens as it lifts north
through Saturday. A short wave ridge provides a brief break in the
active pattern across much of the waters Saturday night. However,
the next North Pacific Storm brings gusty gale winds across the
western waters Saturday night with a surface low deepening to 970
mb Sunday morning. The parent low driving this system organizes as
cold air advects around the base of its trough. There is still a
bit of uncertainty on the development on this storm as models are
still working out the dynamic details. Added blowing across the
western Aleutian Chain Saturday night

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Monday through Wednesday)...
Expect multiple deep lows over the eastern Bering Sea down into
the North Pacific on Monday. All of this will shift eastward, with
one or more strong lows tracking into the Gulf of Alaska Monday
night through Tuesday. Forecast confidence remains high in the
overall pattern, with support for gale to storm force lows.
Meanwhile, forecast confidence in the track and strength of each
individual storm is low.

Meanwhile, it is looking likely that another large and deep low
will move to the western Aleutians Tuesday, then quickly track
eastward across the Bering and Aleutians on Wednesday. Once again
expect widespread gales with potential for storm force winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...
While model agreement is poor in the Monday/Tuesday time frame,
solutions converge upon the same general solution beginning with a
deep low tracking to the western Aleutians on Tuesday. A strong
zonal jet will drive this system quickly eastward, across the
Bering Sea and Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday.
The GFS solution takes the track a bit farther north, but
ensembles support the more southern track. Based on this, expect
another round of strong winds and heavy precipitation as the storm
system crosses the area. The southern track would keep
precipitation primarily in the form of snow across the southern
mainland of Alaska Wednesday night through Friday.

On the back side of this storm, Arctic air will plunge back
southward across the entire forecast area. Thus, expect well below
normal temperatures to settle back in across Southwest Alaska late
next week, then into Southcentral Alaska by next weekend. Upper
level flow will remain progressive, so it looks like another deep
low will reach the western Aleutians by Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 173-177 185.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CK/SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB