Gale Warning 175, NWS Anchorage, AK

276 
FZAK51 PAFC 141257
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150145-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 998 mb low over Sitkinak moves 320 nm southeast
of Middleton Island at 993 mb Fri night and then moves inland. Weak 
low pressure remains over the Gulf of Alaska through Sat night.

$$

PKZ119-150145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Basin
in the morning. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150145-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Caines Head. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150145-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150145-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind to 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150145-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt in the morning diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 3 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150145-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150145-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150145-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind 15 kt becoming
NW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150145-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150145-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150145-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-150145-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

530 
FZAK51 PAFC 150001
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151245-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf remains nearly stationary through
Sun afternoon. A weak trough along the north Gulf coast persists
through Sat night, then dissipates. A stronger front enters the
southern Gulf Sun morning, moving into the central Gulf Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-151245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151245-
Resurrection Bay-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151245-
Prince William Sound-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151245-
Port Valdez-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151245-
Valdez Narrows-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt decreasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151245-
Valdez Arm-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming 
variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151245-
Passage Canal-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151245-
Barren Islands East-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151245-
Chiniak Bay-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt 
in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151245-
Marmot Bay-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151245-
Shelikof Strait-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-151245-
Kachemak Bay-
301 PM AKST Fri Feb 14 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
353 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The longwave pattern in amplifying across the forecast area
today. This is best seen by looking at the structure of the jet
stream. There is a trough/ridge couplet over the eastern Gulf Of
Alaska and the North Pacific/AKPEN. Which is followed by another
upper level trough over the western Aleutians and this feature is
associated with the 952 mb low west of Adak this morning. A tight
pressure gradient has developed with both lows, although the first
low is rapidly moving into Southeast leaving an inverted trough
over Prince William Sound. Gale and storm force winds were
detected overnight with the western system on ASCAT (advanced
scatterometer) data.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The ensemble members of the GFS and the operational runs of the
GFS, ECMWF, NAM and Canadian are in lock step through 48 hrs.
This includes the tracks of the surface features and the advance
of the respective precipitation shields. This is echoed by the
NCEP RMOP (Relative Measure Of Predictability) which is projecting
high confidence scores through 48 hrs for the southern tier of
Alaska and the north and central Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The Kenai radar (PAHG) had light returns over portions of
Turnagain Arm and near Fire Island early this morning. The main
event is over but there is a slight chance that a snow shower
could move over or in the vicinity of PANC early this morning.
Between 8-9z the cig increased from 2,200 ft to 4,600 feet.
Improvement is expected with the flight categories this TAF
package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Offshore flow will continue today as a ridge builds over the
area. The ridge will remain over the area tonight and weaken on
Friday. Gusty Gap winds will continue through today, weakening
tonight and Friday as the surface gradient weakens. Drier and
colder conditions will settle in across Southcentral through
Friday night. Another front will will reach Kodiak Island Thursday
night into Friday. Precipitation over the Island will likely be
all snow, but accumulations should not be heavy and winds will be
fairly light. Zonal flow aloft will drive this eastward across the
Gulf and keep Southcentral dry. The ridge will weaken and slide
east later Friday and Friday night as a weak upper trough
approaches from the southwest. With the approach of this trough,
clouds will increase and chances of snow will return to the the
Southcentral mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clear and cold conditions persist for southwest Alaska. Wind
chills are currently flirting with the -40F mark in the Kuskokwim
Delta, so will stay on the safe side and leave the wind chill
advisory out through mid morning. Northeasterly flow with gusty
winds continues to move out of the Interior of the state
reinforcing the cold air in place. This is expected to change
tonight into tomorrow with the arrival of a front extending from
the storm force low currently entering the Bering Sea. Timing of
the front has varied slightly over the past day with each model
run. However, we have confidence that southwest AK will see a
shift in the weather late tonight. This will warm temperatures and
bring light snow to southwest AK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The storm force low has arrived in the Bering Sea. The low center
is currently passing over the Western Aleutian Islands, close to
Amchitka. The center is well defined on GOES satellite. Recent
ASCAT imagery shows a swath of storm force winds on the backside
of this tightly-wrapped low, so the wind forecast appears to be
on track. What is still in a bit of question is where the low
will end up, as models keep flip flopping on tracks that take it
to the western Bering, or more east close the Pribilofs. So stay
tuned for forecast updates on storm track.

With that said, this low is still expected to weaken after in
crosses into the Bering, with winds dropping to small craft
advisory strength by Saturday morning. The initial front
associated with this low is currently pushing through the
Pribilofs and eastern Aleutians, so periods of snow and blowing
snow are in the forecast for both locations today. The Aleutians
will some mixed precip as well with warmer temperatures there.
Another front will push through Friday with similar weather.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering/Aleutians: Look for an active pattern, with a series of
lows and fronts transiting the region. While there is some
question about where each low will track, generally expect a good
chance of gale force winds through the 3 day period. The strongest
winds look to be on Sunday, with a low along the western
Aleutians. There is chance of storm force winds near the low
center.

Gulf of Alaska: The Gulf will be on the periphery of the Bering
Sea storms, with the strongest winds across the southern Gulf.
It looks like winds will remain below gale force Saturday through
Sunday, with just a small chance of gales over the southern Gulf.
A more significant storm out west on Monday looks likely to bring
gales to much of the western Gulf on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Friday evening, there
will be a stacked closed low over the Central Bering Sea with a
triple point low over the Gulf of Alaska, moving eastward. Onshore
flow across Southwest Alaska will bring in snow showers and more
cloud cover and warmer temps while arctic high pressure over
Southcentral continues to keep temps below average through the
weekend. A series of subtle low amplitude shortwave troughs will
pass through the Southern Mainland Saturday through Sunday night,
but there is low certainty at this juncture on track. For now,
clouds will likely be on the increase with precipitation chances
rising although the threat looks rather minimal, and this will
also favor coastal locations.

A big change is looking more and more likely beginning Sunday
evening and lasting through at least Tuesday. The flow pattern is
going to amplify dramatically, and will result in a potential
significant storm cycle across all of Southern Alaska with threats
ranging from heavy snow, coastal rain, strong winds, and more. At
this juncture details are much uncertain, but residents should be
aware and stay tuned as the details and storm track become more
certain.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale 130 131 132 411 412 413 170 172 173 174 175 177 178
179 180 185. Storm 176. Heavy Freezing Spray 127 139 414 412 180
185. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA