Gale Warning 172, NWS Anchorage, AK

837 
FZAK51 PAFC 131210
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140130-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will be over the northern Gulf through this afternoon.
A 998 mb low near Chignik this evening will move to 250 nm south of
Cape Suckling by noon Fri then into the Panhandle Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-140130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140130-
Resurrection Bay-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140130-
Prince William Sound-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140130-
Port Valdez-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140130-
Valdez Narrows-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140130-
Valdez Arm-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140130-
Passage Canal-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140130-
Barren Islands East-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt after midnight. Wind S 15 kt in the
evening. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140130-
Chiniak Bay-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140130-
Marmot Bay-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140130-
Shelikof Strait-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-140130-
Kachemak Bay-
310 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

971 
FZAK51 PAFC 131628 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

Updated zone 119

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-140415-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure will be over the northern Gulf through this afternoon.
A 998 mb low near Chignik this evening will move to 250 nm south of
Cape Suckling by noon Fri then into the Panhandle Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-140415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-140415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-140415-
Resurrection Bay-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-140415-
Prince William Sound-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.  Seas
3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-140415-
Port Valdez-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-140415-
Valdez Narrows-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-140415-
Valdez Arm-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-140415-
Passage Canal-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-140415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-140415-
Barren Islands East-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-140415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to W 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt after midnight. Wind S 15 kt in the
evening. N of Dangerous Cape, NE wind after midnight. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain and snow. 
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ136-140415-
Chiniak Bay-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-140415-
Marmot Bay-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-140415-
Shelikof Strait-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft  subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-140415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy
freezing  spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-140415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-140415-
Kachemak Bay-
728 AM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

518 
FZAK51 PAFC 140010
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141300-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 999 mb low 125 nm southwest of Sitkinak this evening will move 
to 75 nm west of Sitka at 992 mb Fri evening. A 999 mb low will
develop near Middleton Island Fri night and remain nearly 
stationary through Saturday.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
Resurrection Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
Prince William Sound-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
Port Valdez-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
Valdez Narrows-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
Valdez Arm-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
Passage Canal-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 30 kt near Whittier diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Gusts to 20 kt near Whittier after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
Barren Islands East-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
N of Dangerous Cape, N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft except 7 ft 
N of Dangerous Cape.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
Chiniak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
Marmot Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
Shelikof Strait-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
Heavy Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
Kachemak Bay-
310 PM AKST Thu Feb 13 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Wed Feb 12 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a mature system with a front that spans from Southcentral
to the North Pacific. The occlusion was over the Alaska Peninsula
early this morning. There is a developing low south of the Western
Aleutians. Gales have been detected with both systems using ASCAT
(advanced scatterometer) data. There is a 130+ knot jet core south
of Kodiak and a 160+ knot jet core south of the Western Aleutians.
Lightning strikes were detected early this morning with the system
south of the Western Aleutians. The radars at King Salmon (PAKC),
Kenai (PAHG) and Middleton Island (PAIH) have all been active
this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

For initialization purposes compared the 9z radars at Kenai and
Middleton Island to the QPF at 9z on the models
(GFS/NAM/ECMWF/Canadian/HRRR). The HRRR, Canadian and the ECMWF
were the only models that had precipitation near Hope at 9z while
the GFS and NAM were bone dry. Meanwhile on the Middleton Island
radar there were some minor differences with the precipitation
band near Valdez but all 5 models did reasonably well over the
northern Gulf Of Alaska. The GFS ensemble members are tightly
grouped through 60 hrs. The GFS ensemble mean is in lock step with
the operational run of the ECMWF in the Bering and the North
Pacific through F60. Temperatures in the boundary layer associated
with the low continue to show some variance even in the first 24
hrs of the forecast package. The models all show warm air
advecting into Southwest and nudging the arctic air mass eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Active TAF package. Low ceilings will persist as the
frontal boundary moves inland. At 11z Wednesday the cig at PANC
was 4,400 ft which rapidly deteriorated to 1,200 ft by 13z. Snow
has fallen on the tarmac this morning and more is expected this
morning. The visibility was reduced to 1 sm at 13z. Degraded vsby
anticipated as the precipitation moves through. The models show
moisture getting wrapped around the back side of this low and near
the aerodrome until 9z Thursday and VFR conditions may not return
until after that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low in the Gulf will slide eastward today. There is plenty of
moisture with this low and snow is spreading inland, especially
over the Copper River Basin. Winds will be fairly gusty over the
Kenai Peninsula, with some areas of blowing snow. The strongest
winds will be from Portage through Turnagain Pass, and along Cook
Inlet. Conditions will slowly dry out from west to east tonight
through Thursday as the low pushes into Canada. Offshore winds and
cold advection will return to the area as a sharp ridge builds
over the area. Most of Southcentral will be cold and dry Thursday
and Thursday night. For Kodiak, another system will push into the
Island Thursday night bringing snow, but winds will be lighter
than they were last night (Tuesday night).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Northeasterly winds have developed over much of southwest Alaska
as anticipated, with the southern Bristol Bay area continues to
see snow and blowing snow. Snow and blowing snow exists in
southern Bristol Bay and along the Alaska Range due to a decaying
front that remains nearly stationary. Its parent low (that moved
through the eastern aleutians yesterday) is still moving east into
the Gulf of Alaska. After this low exits later today the front
will become a non factor. However, it does look like weather will
linger a little longer than expected, so extended blowing snow
along the AKPEN through this afternoon.

Northeasterly winds will continue through the day today and
slowly diminish overnight tonight. This flow is still expected to
usher in colder temperatures and wind chills pushing -45F. As a
result issued wind chill advisory starting midnight. Dropped
temperatures a few degrees tonight for interior southwest AK with
cold air barreling from the interior. Winds also look to stay
elevated coming down the Kuskokwim River Valley tonight and
tomorrow, so reflected this in the forecast. Be advised it will
be cold for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The weather story for the Bering continues to the be storm force
low pressure system that will move north through the
Bering and will enter our forecast area later today. This storm
is rapidly deepening as it approaches. It is now close enough to
our forecast area that is can be seen on satellite and so far it
appears to be on track. The latest model runs have the storm
taking a bit more of an easterly track, so adjusted the storm
track slightly tonight. This storm is also sizable and will
encompass much of the Bering Sea. Therefore, even with an
adjustment to storm track, many locations will still see at least
gale force winds.

Also of note this morning, a stretched out decaying front is still
sitting over the eastern Bering/Aleutians and providing some snow
showers and elevated winds with blowing snow. This front will be
a non-factor after today.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering/Aleutians: A gale force low in the central Bering will
weaken Friday into Saturday. Another strong low will approach the
western Aleutians late Sunday, likely bringing another round of
gales.

Gulf of Alaska: Winds will generally remain below gale force
through Sunday. However, model agreement is poor so confidence in
the forecast is below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period forecast on Thursday afternoon,
there will be a large and deep upper level cyclone with a stacked
surface low over the Western Aleutians with the occluded front
moving into the eastern Bering Sea. Cold northwest offshore flow
will be keeping the mainland dry at this time. As the front shifts
east, the zonal flow will result in a developing triple point low
around Kodiak Island. Snow will move into the AKPEN and parts of
interior Bristol Bay, but this will not make much northward
progress as the arctic high will be in place, so much of the
energy will move into the Gulf of Alaska and fall apart as it
moves east Friday. This pattern means most of Southern Alaska will
remain drier and colder, although Southwest Ak will be open to
brief bouts of clouds and snow through the weekend as the Alaska
Range will keep Southcentral much drier given the fast westerly
flow aloft.

The upper level flow reamplifies sometime Sunday night, and this
will likely bring in more stormy weather for the Southern
Mainland, with a myriad of impacts including inland snow and
stormy seas. It looks to get colder thereafter as another arctic
trough digs in.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 155. WSW Blowing Snow 121 125. WSW
Snow 141.
MARINE...Storm 119 130 132 138 411 413 178 177 176 175 174.
Gale 352 120 131 139 414 412 150 155 170 171 172 173 179 180 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray 139 414 412 150 160 165 185 150 160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM