Gale Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

859 
FZAK61 PAFC 171206
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180230-
306 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Easterly flow continues through Sunday morning north of a series 
of North Pacific lows.

$$

PKZ351-180230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
306 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 17 to
21 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
306 AM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

214 
FZAK61 PAFC 180034
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181345-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Easterly flow continues through Sunday afternoon North of a 
series of Pacific lows. A weak front moves across the Northern 
Gulf and dissipates Sat afternoon. A 979 mb North Pacific low 
moves to 58N 148W at 986 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front pushes 
over the Eastern Gulf through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft building to 
17 to 21 ft after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
334 PM AKST Fri Jan 17 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

553 
FZAK61 PAFC 181201
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-190230-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

Easterly flow continues through Sunday afternoon North of a 
series of North Pacific lows. A weak front moves across the
Northern Gulf and dissipates Sat afternoon. A 979 mb North 
Pacific low moves to 58N 148W at 986 mb Sun afternoon. Its front 
tracks over the Eastern Gulf through Sun afternoon and dissipates
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-190230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ352-190230-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
301 AM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

955 
FZAK61 PAFC 190018
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-191400-
318 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Easterly flow continues across the Gulf through Mon afternoon due 
to a series of North Pacific lows. A 981 mb low at 54N 142W tracks 
to 60N 150W at 994 mb by Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-191400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
318 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-191400-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
318 PM AKST Sat Jan 18 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
711 AM AKST Thu Jan 16 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overall large scale pattern remains generally unchanged from
yesterday. A sharp, negatively tilted upper level trough extends
from the Kamchatka Peninsula through the central Aleutians. Its
associated front is bringing gusty southeasterly winds and locally
heavy rain to this region. The upstream ridge has subsequently
shifted slightly eastward and transitioned into a large, closed
upper level high centered over the Seward Peninsula. This is again
inhibiting the development of any precipitation or much cloud
cover over much of the western portion of the state, although
these conditions may lead to fog in low-lying areas. Strong
outflow winds have diminished in the Chugach terrain gaps as the
aforementioned high has caused a more zonal flow pattern over the
Copper River Basin. This is also preventing the northward
progression of a low near the Panhandle and thus all precipitation
is likely to remain offshore for the near future.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptically, models remain in good agreement. There is still
slight uncertainty with regards to how a small low will interact
with the aforementioned main frontal system west of the Pribilofs.
However this will likely be only of minimal impact as the front
will already be weakening, thus diminishing the southerly gales in
the eastern Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A broad upper ridge over the Mainland with cold interior air at the
surface will continue to support strong offshore flow and gaps winds
across Southcentral through today. Areas of blowing snow are
expected across the Matanuska Valley through today. Offshore flow
and gap winds will slowly diminish tonight and through Friday as
pressure gradients relax and winds aloft weaken. Broad easterly flow
with waves moving west across the Gulf will bring snow showers to
Kodiak through today with a couple inches of fresh snow expected.
Snow showers will diminish some tonight, but will become more
numerous Friday and Friday night with the next wave. This next batch
on Friday night will also be accompanied by gusty northerly winds,
so there may be some blowing snow issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure situated over interior Southwest Alaska will help
to keep cold air stretched across the region with clear skies and
dry conditions. Temperatures tonight and Friday afternoon will see
a slight downward trend before warming up a bit for this weekend
as cloud cover starts to move in across interior Bristol Bay.
However, clear skies through Saturday over the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley will keep this area the coldest in Southwest Alaska with
low temperatures near 20 below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The gale force front stretching from the north central Bering to
the central Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula this morning will
persist through this afternoon. The Pribilofs are the dividing
line of the front with southeasterly winds from the Islands into
the eastern Bering, while areas west of the Pribilofs will see
more of a west to northwesterly flow of winds through the morning
hours today. Areas north of the Chain can expect to see strong
winds and gusts out of bays and passes before the front begins to
weaken to small craft level winds through the night. Widespread
rain and snow showers will continue across much of the Bering
associated with this frontal system.

To the west, a front associated with a gale force low will cross
over the western and central Aleutians by this afternoon, which
will make a quick exit back into the North Pacific overnight and
into Friday morning. This warm system should keep any new
precipitation as rain or a rain snow mix as it moves over the
region.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday )...

Marine weather looks quiet in both the Gulf of Alaska and the
Bering Sea. A pattern shift over the weekend will quiet weather in
both areas. As of now, winds in the Bering will shift to a light
westerly flow Saturday into Sunday. In the Gulf, winds will maintain
a general easterly direction until Monday but with offshore gusts
ceasing Saturday. Monday in the Gulf a weak low pressure system
moves in, but right now it does not look to elevate winds and waves
very much. Confidence is high with this forecast as models are
locking in on the pattern shift.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7:Sunday through Tuesday)...

Over the weekend we are expecting a pattern shift for our
forecast area. The dominant omega block currently in place is
expected to break down, with the high pressure closing off and
retreating to the north and east. It will also lose some strength
as well. The breakdown of this blocking pattern will allow a weak
low pressure system to move into the Gulf of Alaska, increasing
the chances of precipitation along the coast starting Monday. It
will also shift wind direction and allow a warm-up in temperatures
to more seasonable conditions for Southcentral Alaska. Out west,
this pattern shift will allow for more zonal flow across the
Bering and into Southwest Alaska. At this time, no significant
weather features are embedded in this pattern out west.

We are confident this shift in the pattern will occur. We are also
confident the warm-up for Southcentral will not be too strong, so
we will stay below freezing and keep our snowpack. What is lacking
in confidence is the setup of the low in the Gulf of Alaska, as
models disagree on its position. So we'll have to hone the details
in the short term on how much snow falls and where. So, high
confidence in a new pattern, low confidence in the particulars.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119 121 127 130 139 160 180
                                       185.
         Gale Warning: 127 130 138 155 165 170-174 176 177 180
                       181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AH
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB