Gale Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

808 
FZAK62 PAFC 280030
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-281345-
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb low at 47N 175E Thu night moves to 51N 178E at 970 mb Fri
afternoon. Its associated front reaches the eastern Bering Sat
morning. The low center then moves to 55N 178W at 970 mb Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft building to 8 to 16 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow showers
and rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 58N. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 35 kt becoming E 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 to 8 ft building to 9 to 14 ft in the afternoon. 
Snow showers and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-281345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind up to 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0 to 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 1 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 PM AKST Wed Feb 26 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level low in the northern Gulf. Moisture is
rotating around this low, bringing showers mainly to areas near
the Gulf with little precipitation making it inland. There is a
large low over the Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, bringing
some precipitation to that area. Northeast winds are over most of
the Bering, with high pressure over the northern Bering. Surface
high pressure is over much of mainland Alaska, bringing northerly
winds to most of southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through Friday
afternoon. After this,there just begins to be some differences in
the location of a low moving up from the south towards the
western and central Aleutians. Forecast confidence is higher than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low pressure centered over the Northeast Gulf this evening remains
nearly stationary through Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, a ridge
resides over the interior keeping the inland locations dry and
clear. The weather across the interior tonight through Thursday
night stays relatively quiet. Increased gusty winds through
channeled terrain picks up late Thursday night as an upper level
short wave dives south out of the Arctic toward the Gulf. This
forces the cold pool from the interior into a drainage pattern
through the Alaska Range. Gusty flow along the northern Susitna
Valley, Matanuska Valley, western Prince William Sound, Kenai
Peninsula and Thompson Pass should peak during the day Friday
before tapering down overnight.

The next front is on tap to push across the western Gulf early
Saturday spreading precipitation across all of Southcentral
through Saturday night. The eastern Kenai, Prince William Sound
and northeast Gulf coast will see the highest precipitation with
this system, although the region could see significant snow
totals as the subtropical jet noses from the North Pacific to the
southern mainland. There is still some uncertainty on the timing
of the boundary with it expected to arrive at Kodiak Island mid
Saturday morning, moving across the Kenai during the afternoon
then advances across the rest of Southcentral during the evening.
Precipitation types will mainly be snow, however snow could change
over to rain across the Gulf with coastal locations along the Gulf
starting as snow possibly mixing with rain or changing over
completely late Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

An area of elongated high pressure across the Northern Bering
continues to hover over southwestern Alaska. Arctic air will
continue to propagate into the southwest with light northerly
flow. Expect temperatures to be cool and dry through Friday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

There is a broad, decaying surface low southeast of Adak this
afternoon. The front associated with this has moved north past
Saint Paul. This leaves behind a showery pattern over most of the
Bering and the Aleutians. This low will continue to weaken as it
moves towards the Alaska Peninsula Thursday afternoon. A front
associated with a new low from the North Pacific, late Thursday
to early Friday morning, is expected to enter the Aleutian waters
south of Adak. This low will move quickly, as it has upper level
support, and rapidly strengthens. Expect high end gale force
winds, high seas and precipitation across the western and central
Aleutians and Bering through Fri afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sat through Mon)...
A strong low in the Bering on Saturday will bring widespread gale
force winds across the Bering, Aleutians, and westward to near
Kodiak Island. Storm force winds are expected closer to the low
center, over the western Bering and central/western Aleutians.
There is an outside chance of hurricane force winds on the
backside of this system. By Sunday this system will weaken, with
gales confined to the central/western Aleutians and the western
Bering. For the Gulf, on Sunday and Monday westerly winds will be
near gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sun through Wed)...
On Sunday there will be a low in the Bering, with a trough
extending northeast into northern Alaska. Southwesterly flow aloft
will be over all of southern Alaska, extending westward through
the eastern and central Aleutians. Through Monday the models are
in fairly good agreement that the Bering low will weaken and
slowly drift south, while the northern Alaska trough drops
southward into southern Alaska. By Tuesday the deterministic
models diverge significantly on where the Bering low goes, and
also on how the upper level pattern develops over Alaska in
general. Therefore for Tuesday and Wednesday ensemble mean
forecasts are preferred, and forecast confidence is somewhat low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warnings 127
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 179 185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CK
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL