Gale Warning 105, NWS Anchorage, AK

608 
FZAK62 PAFC 011225
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020145-
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 946 mb North Pacific low at 48N 173E moves to 49N 175E Sun 
afternoon at 950 mb. Its front moves into the Bering Sat morning
and moves inland early Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming 35 to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
18 to 31 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 25 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 31 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15 to
23 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
and rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft building to 11 to 19
ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
325 AM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
Snow with rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8
ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.WED...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.

$$

184 
FZAK62 PAFC 020030
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021415-
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 946 mb North Pacific low at 49N 175E moves to 51N 175W at 966 mb
Mon afternoon. Its front continues across the eastern Bering Sat 
evening and moves inland early Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 18 to 32 ft. Freezing spray N 
of 57N. Snow with rain S of 56N.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft. Freezing spray N of 57
N. Snow with rain S of 56N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE to SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing
spray N of 58N. Snow with rain S of 58N in the evening.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S to E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
330 PM AKST Sat Feb 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11
ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...E to S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8
ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.

$$

996 
FZAK62 PAFC 021213
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030215-
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Sun morning there is a 940 mb North Pacific low at 50N 175E. This
low will move to 51N 174W at 966 mb Mon afternoon. Tue morning
there is a new low of 970 mb at 46N 162E. 

$$

PKZ411-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 24 to 34 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow and rain.
.MON...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TODAY...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 AM AKST Sun Feb 2 2020

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 to 10 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
643 AM AKST Fri Jan 31 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level trough is over the mainland with a closed low
center spinning over the western Gulf of Alaska. This low remains
stagnant since Thursday as an upper level ridge pattern borders
it to the east and west. Farther west, an upper low is spinning
along the northern Kamchatka Peninsula. At the surface, scattered
snow showers continue to develop across the Gulf and eastern Bering
along with upper level shortwaves propagating around the Gulf low. A
few showers are moving into the surrounding coasts before
dissipating.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue in good synoptic agreement through the weekend
with the low over the Gulf exiting southeast followed by another
strong storm moving to the Western and Central Aleutians on
Saturday. Only minor changes were made for the morning forecast
package with most of the edits focused around increasing winds
along the Gulf coasts as cold air advects from the north. Hi-res
models were used to update the forecast across Southcentral and
the Gulf with use of the GFS across the Southwest and Bering.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...MVFR ceilings are expected to improve to VFR this morning
then remain VFR through late Saturday morning. Winds will be
relatively light with a prevailing north wind setting up as
offshore flow develops this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A trough lifting over Southcentral Alaska this morning is
responsible for snow showers over the Gulf into Prince William
Sound. This afternoon, a second shortwave trough will spread snow
showers farther inland, including into the Copper River Basin.
The brunt of showers with this second short-wave will move across
Cordova and vicinity, with locally heavy snow possible producing
a few inches of snow.

In the upper levels, a ridge over the Bering Sea continues to
move eastward along with an upper level jet and weak cold air
advection on the front side of this ridge. This will keep strong
winds and gusts in the forecast for bays and passes along Shelikof
Strait, as well as Kamishak Bay to the Barren Islands. These winds
will quickly diminish Saturday evening as the ridge moves into the
western Gulf and pressure gradients weaken.

As the ridge approaches Southcentral later today through
Saturday, pressure gradients will tighten along the north Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound, particularly for Passage Canal
and Resurrection Bay. Winds over these areas have been increased
for today's forecast with a much more impressive pressure gradient
in today's models along with favorable flow aloft. Expect the
strongest winds late tonight through Saturday morning followed by
weakening winds as the ridge begins to move in over Southcentral
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Upper level troughing and low level cyclonic flow continues to
dominate the region as bitterly cold temps remain in place. Snow
showers are still impacting the Southern Alaska Peninsula but
these will diminish today. Surface high pressure will strengthen
through Saturday morning until a significant warm front begins to
impact the coast Saturday afternoon as a leading weak wave moves
through the Kuskokwim Delta. The big warm front moves in on Sunday
morning, and this will likely bring accumulating snow and blowing
snow impacts to Southwest as the pattern shifts dramatically.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level mobile shortwave trough is slowly moving east
across the western Bering Sea with the surface trough axis
extending from Nikolski to the southern tip of Eastern Siberia.
This is bringing rain/snow to the Central Aleutians, and as the
trough shifts east and consolidates, light snow accumulations
will impact the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska/Akun.

Attention rapidly turns to a quickly developing bomb cyclone which
will spread snow into the western Bering/Aleutians today. The warm
front associated with this low will move into the Bering Sea
tonight and Saturday, then reach the Southwest coast by Sunday
afternoon. Snow will initially accompany the front along with
quick accumulations, but this front will bring in enough warm air
for the entire Aleutian Chain to turn to rain as the front lifts
north. The one concern will be 3-5" snow and strong east winds
impacting the Pribilof Islands with snow/blowing snow, so this
will need to be monitored as we get closer.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sunday through Tuesday)...

Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters: A ~950 mb low will be
located near the Rat Islands Sunday afternoon, with sustained
high-end gales and storm force gusts expected on the backside of
this system across the western Aleutians and Bering. The low then
moves to just west of the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday, with
sustained winds having decreased below gales by then.

As for seas, given a long dynamic fetch, seas of 25 to 30 feet are
anticipated on Sunday across the western Bering and south of the
Aleutian chain west of Dutch Harbor decreasing into the 5 to 15 feet
range north of the Chain and east of 175W. These waves then subside
further for Monday and Tuesday as the storm system weakens.

Gulf of Alaska: A sustained gale force front will enter the Gulf
on Sunday from west to east, before the front stretches out
parallel to the coast on Monday as it weakens. As it does so
winds will decrease towards the small craft variety, with a few
gales still possible near the Copper River Delta. By Tuesday winds
will remain below 20 knots. As the front crosses the region, waves
will build into the 15 to 20 feet range for Sunday into Monday
before decreasing on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)...
A pattern change looks to commence over the next several days as a
fairly strong storm system reaches the west central Aleutians
Tuesday morning, moving into the Pribilof Islands by later that
evening. As it does so a warm front will surge north and east
bringing increased warmth and moisture aloft, which translates to
temperatures moderating towards normal for the middle portion of the
week for the central Aleutians eastward through Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska. Precipitation potential will also increase
ahead of these features.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 174 176 177 178 185.
         Gale Warning 120 121 129 131 132 136 138
                      150 155 170 171 172 173 175 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 120 121 129 130 131 132
                                  136 137 138 139 141 150 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD