Gale Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

090 
FZAK62 PAFC 020006
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021515-
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Northerly flow across the Bering will continue through Sat morning.
A front moves into the western Aleutians Wed afternoon and 
remains stationary while diminishing through Fri morning. A 998 mb
low over the Alaska Peninsula Thu morning moves into the western
Gulf of Alaska at 983 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
306 PM AKST Wed Jan 1 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

912 
FZAK62 PAFC 021232
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030200-
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

Northerly flow across the Bering will continue through Sat morning.
A front over the western Aleutians Wed afternoon and remains 
stationary through Fri morning. This front then dissipates
Saturday morning. A broad 995 mb low develops over the Alaska 
Peninsula Thu morning and moves into the western Gulf of Alaska 
at 985 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt becoming E 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
332 AM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

768 
FZAK62 PAFC 030027
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031400-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the western Aleutians Wed afternoon weakens through 
Fri afternoon. A 995 mb low at 56N 157W moves into the western 
Gulf at 989 mb by Sat morning. A 1009 mb develops over the central
Bering Sat morning and remains stationary through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
327 PM AKST Thu Jan 2 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A major upper level Arctic trough remains over southwest Alaska
and the eastern Bering Sea bringing very cold temperatures to
areas under it. South central Alaska is in the warm southerly
flow aloft ahead of this trough, but that will change over the
next day as a cut off low develops from this trough over Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska. At the surface, the main low is tracking
up Cook Inlet this evening and will move into the western Copper
River Basin overnight. Satellite imagery shows cold air cumulus
clouds streaming off the ice edge over the northern Bering Sea and
tracking over the central and eastern Bering Sea. These clouds
are bringing snow squalls to the eastern Bering to the eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Very cold air is also moving north
up Cook Inlet today and will move into the rest of south central
Alaska by Wednesday morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are all in good alignment with the synoptic pattern as well
as the system moving through southwest and south central Alaska
through tomorrow. The differences mainly are due to model
resolution and ability to resolve small details. The NAM has been
doing a very good job with this storm and both it and the GFS seem
to have good timing on the cold front as it moves up Cook Inlet
this afternoon. After this system passes, models look to be locked
in good agreement through the weekend before some more notable
discrepancies creep in for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The strong southeasterly winds will abruptly shift to the
southwest this evening as much colder air moves up Cook Inlet and
rapidly switches rain to snow sometime between 4Z to 6Z this
evening. Snow will likely be moderate-to-heavy in intensity for a
while with gusty winds producing IFR conditions. The biggest
challenge is forecasting the duration of this heavy snow, though
it should become light or end no later than 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tuesday night through Friday)...

Low pressure currently located over Kodiak Island is continuing to
produce strong southerly flow and warm temperatures for much of
south central AK. However, cold air can be seen on satellite
streaming into the western Gulf of Alaska and surface observations
are indicating snow and cold air are now moving up Cook Inlet.
Blizzard conditions arrived as expected for the Homer area as
well. This means the forecast is on track for a sharp drop in
temperatures and 4-8 inches of snow for the Anchorage area
tonight. The Mat-Su Valley will also see snow tonight with highest
totals just under 6 inches in areas near Skwentna.

Both the Blizzard Warning and Winter Weather Advisory remain in
effect due to these conditions into tomorrow morning. After the
initial push of cold weather, light snow will linger through the
morning as temperatures continue to fall. The low pressure system
will then exit, but cloud cover is expected to linger keeping
temperatures steady in the single digits for much of south central
Alaska and Kodiak for the next couple of days. The exception is
the Copper River Basin where temperatures will continue to drop to
around 10 below zero by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A deep upper level trough combined with an elongated low centered near
Kodiak Island is continuing to enhance snowfall over the Middle
Kuskokwim Valley. An additional 4 inches is likely over this area
through New Year's morning. Gusty northwesterly winds will lead
to periods of blowing snow as well. Farther west, a Wind Chill
Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta. Lows near -15
combined with the aforementioned winds will lead to wind chills
near -40. Snow will taper off and winds will gradually diminish
through the day Wednesday as a broad upper level low stalls over
Bristol Bay. Precipitation chances will be minimal on Thursday,
however temperatures will remain below zero across much of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Northwesterly flow will persist across the central and eastern
Bering/Aleutians bringing widespread snow showers. Heavy freezing
spray is likely given the gusty winds combined with the very cold
airmass. A weak ridge will bring more settled weather across the
western Aleutians through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

A relatively quiet weather pattern sets up for this time of year
all across Southern Alaska and the Bering. A low over the
southern Gulf of Alaska may get winds to gale force along the
North Gulf coast, southern Cook Inlet, the Barren Islands, and
Shelikof Strait on Friday. The low moves into the eastern Gulf of
Alaska Saturday, with a chance of some northwesterly gales through
the Barren Islands. A new North Pacific low may move into the
southern Gulf of Alaska on Sunday, but there is substantial model
disagreement, and confidence in that is low.

For the Bering, high pressure will keep all winds below gale force
all across the Bering Sea, with a possible exception of a dying
front over the western Aleutians early on Friday. Winds may
approach gale force in the western Aleutians Sunday night as a
strong low approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Friday through Tuesday)...

A much quieter weather pattern is setting up for much of Southern
Alaska in the long-term period as a cold air mass becomes firmly
entrenched across the area. This will divert the storm track from
being over us to instead staying south over the North Pacific with
any lows impacting the Panhandle. This is generally well-agreed
upon in the models.

With that said, there will still be a few storm systems that will
be worth watching. On Friday, a weak low will be centered off the
coast of Kodiak, over the southwestern Gulf. It will slowly move
eastward across the southern Gulf and into the eastern Gulf on
Saturday. Snow may impact Kodiak into Friday morning, though a
repeat of the near blizzard conditions of a few days ago does not
appear likely. On Sunday, a new North Pacific low may approach the
AK Pen and Kodiak, but there is poor model agreement on this.
There is much better agreement on the leading front of a strong
North Pacific low moving into the western Aleutians on Monday. The
front should slowly track across the southern Bering into
Tuesday.

Elsewhere, cold and dry will be the name of the game over mainland
Alaska, which means the main weather hazards will be strong gap
winds, particularly through Thompson Pass, but also possibly
through the Matanuska Valley. These winds coupled with the cold
air may lead to wind chill concerns, which unlike previous days,
will focus more on Southcentral, rather than Southwest Alaska.
Continued polar air pouring southward across the Bering on Friday
looks to diminish this weekend, to more light and variable winds.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 181 and 121. Snow Advisory 101. Flood Advisory 145.
Heavy Snow Warning 152. Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130  Gale Warning 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165 172 179 180
181 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 140 141 150 160 165
179 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AP
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW/CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1130 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.54W
12/31/2019  M3.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1153 PM AKST TUE DEC 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 SW CAMPBELL           61.16N 149.94W
12/31/2019  M4.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   MESONET

1151 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 MILES SSE EAGLE RIVER 61.24N 149.44W
12/31/2019  M4.4 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
146 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     SNOW             1 NW SOLDOTNA           60.50N 151.10W
12/31/2019  E2.5 INCH        KENAI PENINSULA    AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED BECAUSE OF BLOWING AND SETTLING.

0143 AM     SNOW             16 S KNIK               61.23N 149.80W
01/01/2020  M7.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

1230 AM     SNOW             17 S KNIK               61.21N 149.77W
01/01/2020  M4.6 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES MORE AT BIVOUAC
            TRAILHEADS OFF CAMPBELL AIRSTRIP RD.

&&