Alert archive / Alaska / Flood Watches in 2020
Flood Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this flood watch at Apr 29, 2020, 9:24 PM AKDT. It took effect at Apr 30, 2020, 6:53 AM AKDT. It was in force for 5 days.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 29, 2020, 9:24 PM AKDT (05:24 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 30, 2020, 6:53 AM AKDT
- Expired
- May 5, 2020, 3:58 PM AKDT
- In force
- 5 days
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
- Flood severity
- None
The text
As transmitted.
943 WGAK68 PAFC 300524 FFAAFC URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 924 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020 AKZ152-155-020500- /O.NEW.PAFC.FA.A.0002.200430T0524Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 924 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020 ...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM ANIAK TO AKIAK.... The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a * Flood Watch for a portion of Alaska...including the following areas...Aniak, Kalskag, Tuluksak, and Akiak. * Through Saturday afternoon * An ice jam formed downstream of Napaimiut is causing flooding just upstream. When the ice jam releases there is potential for flooding downstream from Aniak to Akiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
12 follow-up statements
893 WGAK68 PAFC 301454 CCA FFAAFC URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch...CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 654 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2020 AKZ152-155-020500- /O.COR.PAFC.FA.A.0002.200430T1453Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 654 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2020 ...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM ANIAK TO AKIAK.... The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a * Flood Watch for a portion of Alaska...including the following areas...Aniak, Kalskag, Tuluksak, and Akiak. * Through Saturday afternoon * An ice jam formed downstream of Napaimiut is causing flooding just upstream. When the ice jam releases there is potential for flooding downstream from Aniak to Akiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
434 WGAK68 PAFC 011755 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 955 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2020 AKZ152-155-030000- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 955 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER SOUTH OF KALSKAG DOWN TO AKIAK.... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of Alaska...including the following areas...The Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Through Saturday afternoon * An ice jam downstream of Napaimut is causing flooding just upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag stretch of the river. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
929 WGAK68 PAFC 012359 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020 AKZ152-020100- /O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lower Kuskokwim Valley- Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute 359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER UPSTREAM OF NAPAIMUTE... The Flood Watch been cancelled for areas upstream of Napaimute. Flooding is no longer expected upstream of Napaimute. $$ AKZ155-030000- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO AKIAK.... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of Alaska...including the following area...The Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Through Saturday afternoon * An ice jam downstream of Napaimut is causing flooding just upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
136 WGAK68 PAFC 020828 CCA FFAAFC Flood Watch...CORRECTED National Weather Service Anchorage AK 1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 AKZ152-020100- /O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Lower Kuskokwim Valley- Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute 1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER UPSTREAM OF NAPAIMUTE... The Flood Watch been cancelled for areas upstream of Napaimute. Flooding is no longer expected upstream of Napaimute. $$ AKZ155-030000- /O.COR.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO AKIAK.... The Flood Watch continues for * The Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Through Saturday afternoon * An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Kalskag down to Akiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
985 WGAK68 PAFC 021257 FFAAFC URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 457 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 AKZ155-030100- /O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200504T0600Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 457 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL.... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * The Kuskokwim Delta along the Kuskokwim River from Kalskag downstream to Bethel. * Through Sunday evening. * An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just upstream. A Flood Warning remains in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Kalskag down to Bethel. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
213 WGAK68 PAFC 021709 FFAAFC URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 909 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 AKZ155-032315- /O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200506T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 909 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL.... The Flood Watch is now in effect for * The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel. * Through Tuesday afternoon. * An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$ Szatanek/Hill
696 WGAK68 PAFC 031753 FFAAFC URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 953 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2020 AKZ155-050000- /O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 953 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL... The Flood Watch remains in effect for * The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel. * Through Wednesday afternoon * An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$ Szatanek/Hill
226 WGAK68 PAFC 041744 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 944 AM AKDT Mon May 4 2020 AKZ155-051845- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 944 AM AKDT Mon May 4 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL... The Flood Watch remains in effect for * The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel. * Through Wednesday afternoon. * An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$ Szatanek
526 WGAK68 PAFC 050228 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 628 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2020 AKZ155-060000- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 628 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO NAPAKIAK... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of Alaska...including the following area...Kuskokwim Delta. * Through Wednesday afternoon * The ice jam upstream of Tuluksak has released. The river breakup front is headed downstream, and there is potential for flooding south of Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, Bethel, and Napakiak. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$
083 WGAK68 PAFC 051720 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 920 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 AKZ155-061730- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 920 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL... The Flood Watch continues for * The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel. * Through Wednesday afternoon. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$ Szatanek
892 WGAK68 PAFC 051802 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 1002 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 AKZ155-061815- /O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 1002 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO NAPAKIAK... The Flood Watch continues for * The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel and Napakiak. * Through Wednesday afternoon. * Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of life and property. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding. You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should begin now. && $$ Szatanek
955 WGAK68 PAFC 052358 FFAAFC Flood Watch National Weather Service Anchorage AK 358 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 AKZ155-060100- /O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kuskokwim Delta- Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island 358 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2020 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER... The Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim River has been cancelled. The ice jams have cleared and the water levels have receded. The National Weather Service will continue to actively monitor the situation. $$ Szatanek
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Apr 29, 4:40 PM AKDT, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 4:40 PM AKDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 440 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A strong short-wave trough is dropping southward from the Alaska Interior into Southcentral Alaska. As is typical with short-waves coming from the north, there is not a whole lot of moisture accompanying it. The antecedent conditions over Southcentral are also dry and relatively stable. Thus, the initial impact is primarily some mid to high level clouds ahead of the wave with no signs of precipitation as of midday. An increase in low level flow with the wave combined with weakly unstable lapse rates near the surface (as surface temperatures warm) is leading to locally gusty winds, particularly along the Alaska Range and southward across the northern portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin. Meanwhile, a weakening vertically stacked low over the eastern Gulf is being pulled very slowly northward, but not far enough north to impact Southcentral. An upper level ridge remains in place from Kodiak up across Western Alaska, with another sunny day across Southwest Alaska. The exception is the Kuskokwim Delta coast and north side of the Alaska Peninsula, where low clouds and fog have settled in beneath a subsidence inversion (most clearly seen in the 12Z Cold Bay sounding). Out west, a vertically stacked low continues to spin just north of the far western Aleutian Islands. Despite the overall weakening state of this storm system, there is a decent bent-back occlusion south of the low center, along which heavier rain and gale force winds are focused. Geographically, this is from about Shemya southward into the Pacific. The rest of the occluded front wraps northward around the low center, then eastward across the central Bering Sea before heading back south to around Nikolski in the eastern Aleutians. Winds and precipitation are both diminishing along this front as it elongates and shears apart. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models have all shifted a bit with details of the upper trough digging across Southcentral through tonight and into Southwest Alaska Thursday. However, all solutions show similar trends and this will only result in small changes to the forecast sensible weather. One much smaller scale feature with model differences is the Turnagain Arm wind on Thursday. Hi-res models (which tend to depict these gap winds most accurately) show varying solutions for strength of the Turnagain Arm jet as well as to how much of these winds will bend into Anchorage Thursday afternoon and evening. With weak forcing overall, it seems very small differences in pressure gradients and stability are leading to these differences. Will use a middle ground of these solutions, bringing some southeast winds into south to west Anchorage and along the hillside. Otherwise, models are in good agreement with large scale features through the next few days and overall forecast confidence is above average. && .AVIATION... PANC...The upper trough dropping down from the north could bring a period of slightly stronger northerlies tonight, but expect the strongest winds to be west of the terminal over northern Cook Inlet. Then expect a Turnagain Arm wind to bend into the terminal some time Thursday afternoon. Surface temperatures in the Mat-Su will be only marginally higher than Anchorage, so pressure gradients will be weak. Thus, this looks like a fairly weak wind for the airport, with the strongest winds remaining over Turnagain Arm and Fire Island. While there may be a few showers in the vicinity with the upper trough (mainly over the mountains), expect VFR ceilings to prevail through the taf period. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and Thu)... The main weather focus heading into the end of the week surrounds precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. Starting with this evening, a cold front sags south of the Alaska Range. At the same time, an east Gulf front pushes to the Northeast Gulf coast and eastern Copper River Valley. A few showers will develop along this weak boundary tonight. Clouds will overspread the region tonight through Friday as low to mid level moisture streams up from the Gulf. An upper level low will provide enough lift to initiate a few showers across Southcentral late Thursday night; otherwise, light rain along a weak boundary is expected across the Northeast Gulf coast and Prince William Sound by late Thursday morning. This boundary stalls with light rain spreading to the eastern Kenai late Thursday night. Inland locations stay on the drier side with less than a tenth of an inch expected. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Yesterday, Sleetmute reached a high of 49 degrees Fahrenheit while Aniak reached a high of 48F. Saturday will be the warmest day this forecast period. The region can generally expect afternoon and evening temperature in the 40s-50s. Expect more ice melting along the rivers, rising water levels and "break up" will be in high gear. The river behavior is actively being monitored as well as ice jam development. Currently, there is a Flood Warning in effect for the Kuskokwim River near Sleetmute. Tonight, the models are keeping the upper level trough over the eastern Mainland, over the ALCAN border. Some of the energy from this trough will get kicked out from the main Arctic trough and head westward into SW AK. Expect an increase in cloud coverage. But the antecedent airmass was so parched that it will be difficult to saturate the atmospheric column. Slight chance for showers in places like Sparrevohn and Iliamna. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... There is a low north of Shemya that will remain quasi-stationary through Thursday. It will begin to drift to the southeast through Friday and continue decaying/weakening. Expect gusty winds and rainy conditions across the central Bering Sea and the central Aleutians westward. A few light rain showers are possible for the eastern Aleutians near the end of forecast period. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)... The primary area of uncertainty in the marine forecast is with the strength of a low tracking westward across the Gulf Sunday through Monday. Current forecast advertises small craft advisory winds or weaker. However, some model solutions indicate a deeper low with potential for gale force winds. Forecast confidence is higher for the rest of the marine forecasts. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)... Beginning Sunday, high pressure will prevail across much of the forecast area, with quiet/dry conditions. Attention will then shift to a surface low tracking westward across the Gulf Sunday night through Monday. At this point, there seems to be good model agreement in a track across the southern Gulf. As a result, Southcentral Alaska will be on the northern periphery of this storm system. Rain will be most likely along the Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island, with lower chances of rain as you head inland. At a minimum, there will be an overall increase in cloud cover. However, this looks like it will be a quick shot for Southcentral and sunshine could return by Tuesday. Southwest Alaska could also see a quick shot of clouds and rain on Tuesday before this system falls apart. Bottom line though, the bulk of wind and rain with this storm will be over the Gulf and Kodiak Island. As we continue through the week, longer-term model guidance indicates the upper level flow becoming more amplified, which will likely lead to a more active weather pattern. While there is not agreement in all of the individual features, ensembles support good potential for another system moving into the Gulf by Wednesday, with a separate storm over the northwest Pacific beginning to impact the Aleutians and western Bering Sea. While there will certainly be fluctuations in the daily temperatures, there are no signs of anything highly abnormal, so would expect temperatures to generally be near normal. Of course, as the amount of daylight continues to climb the climatological norm is for steadily rising temperatures as we continue through spring and into summer. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Flood Warning 152 (Kuskokwim River). MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.