Alert archive / Alaska / Flood Watches in 2020

Flood Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

April 29, 2020

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this flood watch at Apr 29, 2020, 9:24 PM AKDT. It took effect at Apr 30, 2020, 6:53 AM AKDT. It was in force for 5 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 29, 2020, 9:24 PM AKDT (05:24 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 30, 2020, 6:53 AM AKDT
Expired
May 5, 2020, 3:58 PM AKDT
In force
5 days
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK
Flood severity
None

The text

As transmitted.

943 
WGAK68 PAFC 300524
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
924 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

AKZ152-155-020500-
/O.NEW.PAFC.FA.A.0002.200430T0524Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, 
and Nunivak Island
924 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM ANIAK TO AKIAK....

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of Alaska...including the following
  areas...Aniak, Kalskag, Tuluksak, and Akiak.
  
* Through Saturday afternoon

* An ice jam formed downstream of Napaimiut is causing flooding 
  just upstream. When the ice jam releases there is potential for 
  flooding downstream from Aniak to Akiak. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
12 follow-up statements
893 
WGAK68 PAFC 301454 CCA
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
654 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2020

AKZ152-155-020500-
/O.COR.PAFC.FA.A.0002.200430T1453Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, 
and Nunivak Island
654 AM AKDT Thu Apr 30 2020

...ICE JAM FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM ANIAK TO AKIAK....

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of Alaska...including the following
  areas...Aniak, Kalskag, Tuluksak, and Akiak.
  
* Through Saturday afternoon

* An ice jam formed downstream of Napaimiut is causing flooding 
  just upstream. When the ice jam releases there is potential for 
  flooding downstream from Aniak to Akiak. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
434 
WGAK68 PAFC 011755
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
955 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2020

AKZ152-155-030000-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay, 
and Nunivak Island
955 AM AKDT Fri May 1 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER SOUTH OF KALSKAG DOWN TO AKIAK....

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following areas...The 
  Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimut is causing flooding just 
  upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag
  stretch of the river. When the ice jam releases and the river 
  breakup front heads downstream, there is potential for flooding 
  south of Kalskag down to Akiak.

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
929 
WGAK68 PAFC 012359
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020

AKZ152-020100-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER UPSTREAM OF
NAPAIMUTE...

The Flood Watch been cancelled for areas upstream of Napaimute. 
Flooding is no longer expected upstream of Napaimute.


$$

AKZ155-030000-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
359 PM AKDT Fri May 1 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO AKIAK....

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following area...The 
  Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimut is causing flooding just
  upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to Kalskag.
  When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front heads 
  downstream, there is potential for flooding south of Kalskag 
  down to Akiak. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
136 
WGAK68 PAFC 020828 CCA
FFAAFC

Flood Watch...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

AKZ152-020100-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-
Including the cities of Aniak and Sleetmute
1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER UPSTREAM OF
NAPAIMUTE...

The Flood Watch been cancelled for areas upstream of Napaimute. 
Flooding is no longer expected upstream of Napaimute.


$$

AKZ155-030000-
/O.COR.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200503T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1228 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO AKIAK....

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Kuskokwim River from south of Kalskag down to Akiak.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just 
  upstream. A flood warning is in effect from Napaimute to 
  Kalskag. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front 
  heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of 
  Kalskag down to Akiak. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
985 
WGAK68 PAFC 021257
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

AKZ155-030100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200504T0600Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
457 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ALONG THE 
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL....

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* The Kuskokwim Delta along the Kuskokwim River from Kalskag
  downstream to Bethel.

* Through Sunday evening.

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just
  upstream. A Flood Warning remains in effect from Napaimute to 
  Kalskag. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front 
  heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of 
  Kalskag down to Bethel. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
213 
WGAK68 PAFC 021709
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
909 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

AKZ155-032315-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200506T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
909 AM AKDT Sat May 2 2020

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE 
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL....

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel.  

* Through Tuesday afternoon.

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just
  upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front
  heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of
  Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel.

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

Szatanek/Hill
696 
WGAK68 PAFC 031753
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
953 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

AKZ155-050000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
953 AM AKDT Sun May 3 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL...

The Flood Watch remains in effect for

* The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel.

* Through Wednesday afternoon

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just
  upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front
  heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of
  Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel.

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

Szatanek/Hill
226 
WGAK68 PAFC 041744
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
944 AM AKDT Mon May 4 2020

AKZ155-051845-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
944 AM AKDT Mon May 4 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL...

The Flood Watch remains in effect for

* The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel.

* Through Wednesday afternoon.

* An ice jam downstream of Napaimute is causing flooding just
  upstream. When the ice jam releases and the river breakup front
  heads downstream, there is potential for flooding south of 
  Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, and Bethel. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

Szatanek
526 
WGAK68 PAFC 050228
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
628 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2020

AKZ155-060000-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
628 PM AKDT Mon May 4 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO NAPAKIAK...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Alaska...including the following area...Kuskokwim 
  Delta. 

* Through Wednesday afternoon

* The ice jam upstream of Tuluksak has released. The river breakup
  front is headed downstream, and there is potential for flooding
  south of Tuluksak including Akiak, Akiachak, Kwethluk, Bethel,
  and Napakiak. 

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$
083 
WGAK68 PAFC 051720
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
920 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

AKZ155-061730-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
920 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO BETHEL...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel.
 
* Through Wednesday afternoon.

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

Szatanek
892 
WGAK68 PAFC 051802
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1002 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

AKZ155-061815-
/O.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
1002 AM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM TULUKSAK DOWNSTREAM TO NAPAKIAK...

The Flood Watch continues for

* The Kuskokwim River from Tuluksak downstream to Bethel and
  Napakiak.

* Through Wednesday afternoon.

* Residents should be prepared for possible rapid rises in river 
  levels and take the necessary precautions for protection of 
  life and property. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding.

You are encouraged to closely monitor this weather situation.
Preparation for this potentially dangerous weather event should
begin now.

&&

$$

Szatanek
955 
WGAK68 PAFC 052358
FFAAFC

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

AKZ155-060100-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-200507T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel, Hooper Bay, and Nunivak Island
358 PM AKDT Tue May 5 2020

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER...

The Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim River has been cancelled. The
ice jams have cleared and the water levels have receded. The 
National Weather Service will continue to actively monitor the 
situation.

$$

Szatanek

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Apr 29, 4:40 PM AKDT, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 4:40 PM AKDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKDT Wed Apr 29 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A strong short-wave trough is dropping southward from the Alaska
Interior into Southcentral Alaska. As is typical with short-waves
coming from the north, there is not a whole lot of moisture
accompanying it. The antecedent conditions over Southcentral are
also dry and relatively stable. Thus, the initial impact is
primarily some mid to high level clouds ahead of the wave with no
signs of precipitation as of midday. An increase in low level flow
with the wave combined with weakly unstable lapse rates near the
surface (as surface temperatures warm) is leading to locally gusty
winds, particularly along the Alaska Range and southward across
the northern portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River
Basin.

Meanwhile, a weakening vertically stacked low over the eastern
Gulf is being pulled very slowly northward, but not far enough
north to impact Southcentral. An upper level ridge remains in
place from Kodiak up across Western Alaska, with another sunny
day across Southwest Alaska. The exception is the Kuskokwim Delta
coast and north side of the Alaska Peninsula, where low clouds and
fog have settled in beneath a subsidence inversion (most clearly
seen in the 12Z Cold Bay sounding).

Out west, a vertically stacked low continues to spin just north of
the far western Aleutian Islands. Despite the overall weakening
state of this storm system, there is a decent bent-back occlusion
south of the low center, along which heavier rain and gale force
winds are focused. Geographically, this is from about Shemya
southward into the Pacific. The rest of the occluded front wraps
northward around the low center, then eastward across the central
Bering Sea before heading back south to around Nikolski in the
eastern Aleutians. Winds and precipitation are both diminishing
along this front as it elongates and shears apart.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models have all shifted a bit with details of the upper trough
digging across Southcentral through tonight and into Southwest
Alaska Thursday. However, all solutions show similar trends and
this will only result in small changes to the forecast sensible
weather.

One much smaller scale feature with model differences is the
Turnagain Arm wind on Thursday. Hi-res models (which tend to
depict these gap winds most accurately) show varying solutions for
strength of the Turnagain Arm jet as well as to how much of these
winds will bend into Anchorage Thursday afternoon and evening.
With weak forcing overall, it seems very small differences in
pressure gradients and stability are leading to these differences.
Will use a middle ground of these solutions, bringing some
southeast winds into south to west Anchorage and along the
hillside.

Otherwise, models are in good agreement with large scale features
through the next few days and overall forecast confidence is
above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The upper trough dropping down from the north could bring a
period of slightly stronger northerlies tonight, but expect the
strongest winds to be west of the terminal over northern Cook
Inlet. Then expect a Turnagain Arm wind to bend into the terminal
some time Thursday afternoon. Surface temperatures in the Mat-Su
will be only marginally higher than Anchorage, so pressure
gradients will be weak. Thus, this looks like a fairly weak wind
for the airport, with the strongest winds remaining over Turnagain
Arm and Fire Island. While there may be a few showers in the
vicinity with the upper trough (mainly over the mountains), expect
VFR ceilings to prevail through the taf period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...

The main weather focus heading into the end of the week surrounds
precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. Starting with this
evening, a cold front sags south of the Alaska Range. At the same
time, an east Gulf front pushes to the Northeast Gulf coast and
eastern Copper River Valley. A few showers will develop along
this weak boundary tonight. Clouds will overspread the region
tonight through Friday as low to mid level moisture streams up
from the Gulf. An upper level low will provide enough lift to
initiate a few showers across Southcentral late Thursday night;
otherwise, light rain along a weak boundary is expected across the
Northeast Gulf coast and Prince William Sound by late Thursday
morning. This boundary stalls with light rain spreading to the
eastern Kenai late Thursday night. Inland locations stay on the
drier side with less than a tenth of an inch expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Yesterday, Sleetmute reached a high of 49 degrees Fahrenheit while
Aniak reached a high of 48F. Saturday will be the warmest day
this forecast period. The region can generally expect afternoon
and evening temperature in the 40s-50s. Expect more ice melting
along the rivers, rising water levels and "break up" will be in
high gear. The river behavior is actively being monitored as well
as ice jam development. Currently, there is a Flood Warning in
effect for the Kuskokwim River near Sleetmute. Tonight, the
models are keeping the upper level trough over the eastern
Mainland, over the ALCAN border. Some of the energy from this
trough will get kicked out from the main Arctic trough and head
westward into SW AK. Expect an increase in cloud coverage. But the
antecedent airmass was so parched that it will be difficult to
saturate the atmospheric column. Slight chance for showers in
places like Sparrevohn and Iliamna.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a low north of Shemya that will remain quasi-stationary
through Thursday. It will begin to drift to the southeast through
Friday and continue decaying/weakening. Expect gusty winds and
rainy conditions across the central Bering Sea and the central
Aleutians westward. A few light rain showers are possible for the
eastern Aleutians near the end of forecast period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Saturday through Monday)...
The primary area of uncertainty in the marine forecast is with the
strength of a low tracking westward across the Gulf Sunday
through Monday. Current forecast advertises small craft advisory
winds or weaker. However, some model solutions indicate a deeper
low with potential for gale force winds. Forecast confidence is
higher for the rest of the marine forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...
Beginning Sunday, high pressure will prevail across much of the
forecast area, with quiet/dry conditions. Attention will then
shift to a surface low tracking westward across the Gulf Sunday
night through Monday. At this point, there seems to be good model
agreement in a track across the southern Gulf. As a result,
Southcentral Alaska will be on the northern periphery of this
storm system. Rain will be most likely along the Gulf Coast and
Kodiak Island, with lower chances of rain as you head inland. At a
minimum, there will be an overall increase in cloud cover.
However, this looks like it will be a quick shot for Southcentral
and sunshine could return by Tuesday. Southwest Alaska could also
see a quick shot of clouds and rain on Tuesday before this system
falls apart. Bottom line though, the bulk of wind and rain with
this storm will be over the Gulf and Kodiak Island.

As we continue through the week, longer-term model guidance
indicates the upper level flow becoming more amplified, which will
likely lead to a more active weather pattern. While there is not
agreement in all of the individual features, ensembles support
good potential for another system moving into the Gulf by
Wednesday, with a separate storm over the northwest Pacific
beginning to impact the Aleutians and western Bering Sea.

While there will certainly be fluctuations in the daily temperatures,
there are no signs of anything highly abnormal, so would expect
temperatures to generally be near normal. Of course, as the amount
of daylight continues to climb the climatological norm is for
steadily rising temperatures as we continue through spring and
into summer.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Warning 152 (Kuskokwim River).
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...SEB

Nearby

Flood Watches in Alaska, 2020Every flood watch in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.