Wind Chill Advisory 5, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1140 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 431 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

Stratus and flurries will exit this morning as sfc high pressure
drifts to the south. Westerly winds on the northern edge of the high
will be enhanced on the downslope side of the Coteau this afternoon
and evening. Patchy blowing snow will be possible from Watertown
south.

The main story will be the Arctic front set to push in Wednesday
morning. Up to an inch of fresh snow is possible across the forecast
area. Very strong northerly winds are expected to usher in one of
the colder blasts we've seen this winter. Gusts as high as 40 to 50
mph will generate blowing snow either during the brief period when
snow is falling or in areas that have a deep, fresh snowpack from
this past weekend's storm. That means travel could be hazardous as
visibilities are reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. And, it
could be a more prolonged event for areas between Hwy 212 and US 14
where the previous snow has not yet crusted over.

Temperatures are expected to fall during the day Wednesday and
become bitterly cold Wednesday night through Thursday night with
lows well into the negative teens and wind chills as low as -40F
Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 431 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

Will start the period under the core of cold air with 850/925mb
temperatures 2 standard deviations below climo, and as cold as about
-20C and -25C respectively. The surface high center is positioned
overhead Thursday morning and meanders over the eastern CWA for the
day, moving southeast in the evening. That would set up the area for
a rapid drop in the evening thanks to daytime temperatures
struggling to reach zero. Winds go light Friday, but are more
predominantly westerly for Saturday thanks to passage of a weak
system that could bring some flurries to the area. This will
aid in getting temperatures back above average. Early next week we
will see a weak upper trough move across the area but confidence is
low as to coverage and quantity of moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of today. In the
overnight hours tonight, an arctic front is expected to push
through the region bringing light snow and heavy winds into
Wednesday. MVFR vis/cigs are expected to happen for all TAF points
Wednesday morning. As we reach the end of the TAF period, winds
really pick up bringing blowing snow and largely reduced
visibilities. KABR/KMBG/KATY may experience a short window of IFR
conditions with KATY reaching short lived blizzard conditions and
KMBG/KABR reaching near blizzard conditions for a brief time at
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
421 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

SDZ003>006-009-010-015-016-033>036-045-048-051-121030-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
421 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020 /321 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Light snow with very gusty north winds is expected Wednesday. Some
patchy blowing snow is possible as the snow falls. Bitterly cold
temperatures and wind chills are expected behind the Arctic front on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-017>023-037-121030-
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-
Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Hand-
421 AM CST Tue Feb 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Downslope winds will develop along the Coteau this afternoon and
evening. Patchy blowing snow is possible in areas that received snow
this past weekend.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

An Arctic front will move through the region on Wednesday bringing up
to an inch of new snow and very gusty northerly winds. Wind gusts as
high as 40 to 50 mph will cause blowing snow and reduced
visibilities late Wednesday morning through mid evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.