Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Main concern in the near term is the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
tracks across the area and encounter extreme instability. CAPE
values of 3000-5000 J/kg will be common late this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Bulk shear will increase into the 50 to 65 knot
range along and ahead of the front, along with a low level jet
increasing into the 50 to 70 knot range. This combination of factors
will result in thunderstorm development, which looks to initiate
around 22Z between the Missouri River and the James River Valley.
The biggest question right now is whether these storms will take
more of a northeast track as shown in the HRRR and the ARW, or if
they line out and more more easterly as shown by the high resolution
NAM and the NMM. There will be a bit of a stronger CAP over the
southeastern part of the CWA, so for now, will lean toward the more
northeasterly track solution and keep fairly low POPs across the
east. Where the storms do develop, conditions will be highly
favorable for them to go severe, with gusty winds and large hail the
most likely threats. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
due to the strong shear as well. May see some lingering showers
across the far northeastern part of the CWA into the overnight
hours.

The frontal boundary stalls out over the far eastern CWA on Monday,
but conditions during the day will be mainly dry with little else to
support precipitation. By Monday night however, an upper trough will
approach the region and will begin to meet up with the remnants of
Tropical Storm Cristobal, and the stalled front looks to then become
the focus for rainfall. The uncertain part now is just how far west
this precipitation will reach, with some models keeping it east of
the James River Valley, and others bringing it as far west as the
Leola Hills region. Rainfall amounts in excess of 1 to 1.5 inches
cannot be ruled out.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s northwest to
the lower 70s east, with highs on Monday ranging from the mid 70s
northwest to the lower 90s east. Lows Monday night will be in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

The period begins on Tuesday with the remnant tropical system surging
northwards into the Midwest. The storm system, along with a mid
level trough passing through the region will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the eastern half of the CWA. With a more stable
environment, severe weather is not expected on Tuesday.

Cooler, dry air will move into the region on Wednesday with boundary
layer dew points in the mid 40s. The combination of steep low level
lapse rates and some mid level moisture may result in isolated
showers, mainly in the eastern CWA. Buffer soundings support gusty
winds on Wednesday with a max gust of 30 to 35 knots. The rest of
the long term will feature dry conditions with temperatures below,
to near normal. Temperatures will be around normal on Saturday and
Sunday with highs in the upper 70s, to the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Thunderstorms are expected to move from southwest to northeast
across the region into the early morning hours. PIR and ABR are
expected to be affected with possible MVFR vsbys and ceilings.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for ATY and MBG for the entire
period and after the storms pass, expect VFR conditions at ABR and
PIR.

***Construction to improve the taxiway for runway 13 at the KPIR
terminal may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-080845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2020 /238 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe storms are again possible this afternoon and evening. Large
hail and strong winds are the main threats. Isolated tornadoes are
also possible. Localized heavy rain could occur. The main threat area
will extend from the Missouri valley east to the James valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

More severe storms and heavy rain are possible Monday afternoon and
night over mainly northeast South Dakota and far western Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
813 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VIVIAN                  43.93N 100.29W
06/07/2020                   LYMAN              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF TORN OFF A BUILDING. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

KF