Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
358 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Once again convection will be the main concern in the short term.
Some light WAA continues this morning for the region and will keep
us above normal today with highs in the upper 80s throughout the
region. Higher dewpoints continue this afternoon in the upper 60s
and low 70s, making for another humid day.

As mentioned before, convection may be an issue today. Models show
shortwave moving northeast out of Nebraska later tonight into Sunday
morning. Prior to that some CAM solutions hint at isolated storm
development this afternoon due to heating with good instability
already in place, but it may have some trouble overcoming capping.
Have kept some low pops in place this afternoon, but the better
chance for convective initiation looks to be tonight with the
shortwave passage. Compared to last night, there is a bit more
agreement on late night early morning development with the potential
for some localized heavy rainfall. Models show ML CAPE values in the
2500-3500J/KG range, though shear remains moderate in the 25-35kt
range. The better chance for severe will be along the boundary
tonight as well as potential cold pool winds reaching into the 60-
70mph range.

Sunday morning some storms may linger in the region, but should be
more dry than not. Temps continue to be above normal with the low
level southerly wind component. We do see a shift later during the
day out of north that may cool us down for a short while after that.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Not much has changed with the models and ensembles with respect
to the weather pattern from Sunday night on through Friday. The
upper level flow will be the coolest for the region on Monday as the
flow will be from the northwest. Highs on Monday will be mostly in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s. For the rest of the long term, the
upper level flow becomes westerly with the flow becoming more
southwesterly towards the end of the week. Again, hard to time short
waves, periods of waa, occasional good deep layer shear, along with
good moisture and instability will result in periods of
showers/storms through the week. After a cooler Monday, Tuesday
through Friday will be mostly in the 80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Chances for any storms during the TAF period is low, however some
showers/storms may be possible later Saturday night. Not enough
confidence to put them at the end of the TAF with most models
showing timing later. Aside from some expected low cloud and fog
development over KATY this morning, VFR condtions are expected.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dye
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Dye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
423 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-090930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
423 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020 /323 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A boundary is expected to push through the region late this afternoon
or evening, which may bring storms, especially in the south and
eastern parts of the forecast area. There is potential for isolated
severe storms with hail and damaging wind being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Sunday the potential for storms lingers, mostly in far eastern SD along
the I-29 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.