Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
631 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Other than some hourly tweaks to pops, forecast remains on track
with a few strong to severe storms around the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Forecast challenges include areal coverage/timing of convection and
areal coverage of severe storms.

Currently, temperatures are warming through the 70s into the low 80s
across the region on a developing southeasterly breeze. Skies are
partly to mostly sunny this afternoon, allowing for adequate daytime
insolation, aiding the current increasing instability west and south
in the region. Objective analysis off the SPC Meso page reveals
there is between 40 and 55 knots of deep layer shear available for
storms to work with, and likely to persist into the evening. The
surface trof/cool front the pushed through the region late last
night/early this morning is splayed out along the NE/SD border, with
plenty of boundary layer (0.5km to 850hpa layer) moisture found
pooling along and behind it this afternoon, per surface/MSAS
analysis. A secondary surface trof/cool front feature is noted again
this afternoon across far western ND tailing back into northwestern
WY, the likely forcing mechanism behind the current batch of showers
and thunderstorms that began developing between 1PM and 2PM CDT back
over southeastern MT and southwestern ND. The mid-level shortwave
impulse of interest is moving into the region, riding through 80 to
90+kt upper level jet stream winds. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
has been issued and is in effect until 11 PM CDT for several
counties across the western/southwestern forecast zones.

Expecting widely scattered to scattered coverage of discrete
splitting supercells west river and into the Missouri River valley
through late this evening per model hodographs, and given the
synoptic scale setup and the available pool of +12C to +14C 850hpa
dewpoint air, right-moving supercells will move into very moisture
rich boundary layer air to work with. A lack of 0-1km shear suggests
tornadic storms are less likely this afternoon/evening, with large
hail and damaging winds more probable. But, given the right
conditions, an isolated tornado is not completely out of the
question. That's what storm coverage/intensity looks like west of a
line from Mobridge to Gann Valley through late this evening. East of
that line, deep layer shear remains strong, but considerably less
favorable low level moisture and mid-level lapse rates prevail from
now through late tonight. There should be scattered/numerous
coverage of showers and thunderstorms working through northeast SD
through late this evening, but probably not of the strong to severe
variety.

Heading into Friday and Friday night, the forecast dries out as the
pattern aloft begins to take on a more amplified look and feel while
western CONUS longwave troffiness develops. At the surface,
cooler/drier airmass high pressure will be in control over the
region. Temperatures throughout the period should be running right
about normal to perhaps a degree or two above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

First issue in the extended is the thunderstorm chances Saturday
into Saturday night. Ingredients look good for severe storms, but
may have to deal with capping issues as 700mb temps approach +12C to
+13C over central SD. Interesting to note some of the deterministic
models are fairly scant for precipitation coverage. That said, will
maintain inherited POPs which really ramp things up by Saturday
night. Approach of the mid level shortwave should help erode
whatever cap is in place by later in the day and into the overnight
hours. Very strong low level jet will be in place as well Saturday
night. Will continue to have chances for showers and thunderstorms
through Monday as we await the passage of the cold front.

Temperatures will become rather toasty Sunday and Monday as 850mb
temps rise into the +20s C by Sunday afternoon. Looking at
widespread 90s on Sunday, with humid conditions setting in as well.
Cooler temperatures will arrive on Tuesday with the passage of
Monday's cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected except near thunderstorms this evening
where temporary IFR vsby is possible.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-052045-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020 /237 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening could bring strong
winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado threat. Storms should
weaken and move southeast late in the evening into the overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A strong system will bring gusty winds, strong to severe storms, and
heavy precipitation to the region this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

Dorn

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
815 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANDOVER                 45.41N 97.90W
06/04/2020  M61 MPH          DAY                SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45 ANDOVER (SDDOT).

&&

KF

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