High Wind Warning 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

868 
WWUS73 KABR 010057
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
757 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051-010200-
/O.EXP.KABR.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-201101T0100Z/
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-
Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
Including the cities of McIntosh, Herreid, Mobridge, Isabel, 
Gettysburg, Fort Pierre, Onida, Pierre, Highmore, Murdo, 
Kennebec, and Fort Thompson
757 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 /657 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020/

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING...

Winds will continue to diminish this evening. Most sites have
fallen below advisory criteria. Isolated higher gusts will still
be possible along higher terrain for the next couple of hours. 

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037-010200-
/O.EXP.KABR.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-201101T0100Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-
Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Hand-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Eureka, Aberdeen, 
Britton, Sisseton, Ipswich, Webster, Faulkton, Redfield, Clark, 
Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, Clear Lake, and Miller
757 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds will continue to diminish this evening. Most sites have
fallen below advisory criteria. Isolated higher gusts will still
be possible along higher terrain for the next couple of hours. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

The main short range highlight weather wise will today's passage of
a frontal boundary followed by a daytime period of strong
northwesterly winds. After things begin to relax this evening, the
remainder of the short term looks quiet.

At 08Z, sfc frontal boundaries are draped across the central and
western portions of the Dakotas. A warm front extends sewd from
around MBG to about YKN while a cold front extends sswd from MBG to
around RAP. An occluded front extends nwd from around MBG at the
triple point nwd to the main sfc low in southern Manitoba. Mainly
mid to high lvl clouds associated with system are working through
the region. Guidance progs this frontal system to trek ewd quickly
into western and central MN by mid to late morning. Northwesterly
winds will be increasing behind this system. First in our western
zones by mid-morning and then progressing ewd across the rest of the
CWA by midday. Temperatures today should continue to top out on the
relatively mild side, despite being into a post fropa cooler
airmass. Mixing conditions will be sufficient enough to bring some
of the milder air aloft to the sfc.

Turning to the strong winds, perusal of latest model guidance
continues to point at a solid wind advisory criteria type scenario
developing with sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts
into the 50-55 mph range. The strongest core of 850/700 hPa winds
will develop across our far west/northwest zones this afternoon.
This coincides well with model BUFKIT soundings, NAEFS Percentile
Ensemble SA table, GEFS plumes and GEFS/ECMWF MOS Ensemble plots.
Would not be all surprised if sections of Corson and Dewey Counties
see High Wind Warning criteria sustained winds and/or gusts
briefly. But, it looks to be short lived and at this point will be
sticking with a Wind Advisory for the entire CWA. Will have to
keep an eye on the initialization of the strong winds in our
western zones as the advisory currently will begin at 18Z. May
have to make adjustments if advisory type winds start impinging
into our western zones earlier than current thinking.

Breezy conditions will persist into this evening, but the strongest
winds will be done by sunset. Temperatures will be dropping into the
30s after sunset and with the breeze still present, chilly
conditions should be anticipated. A ridge of high pressure will
gradually build into the central and eastern Dakotas late tonight
through Sunday morning. A waa pattern looks to quickly set up in our
western zones by day's end on Sunday. Temperatures look to be
slightly cooler in the east by the end of the weekend, but a
significant cooling off is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

The extended period will feature a continuation of dry and warmer
conditions across the area. The region will be under upper level
northwest flow at the beginning of the period, with ridging briefly
building in on Tuesday before a more zonal pattern then sets up.

At the surface, weak ridging will be dominant Sunday night though
the day Monday. The high then slides off to the east, and we become
situated between it and an approaching trough Monday night through
the day Thursday, with the trough finally making its way across the
Northern Plains on Friday. This pattern will allow WAA to develop,
keeping warmer air flowing into the area through the rest of the
week. Much of the snow pack across the CWA has already melted, and
expect whatever is left to likely be gone by the beginning of the
extended period due to the mild weekend temperatures. Therefore, did
continue the trend of raising the in-house model blend temperatures
by 3 to 5 degrees each day Monday through Thursday.

High temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday, in the
60s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s
on Friday. After a cooler night with lows in the 20s Sunday night,
overnight lows in the 30s will be common through the remainder of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A frontal boundary will exit the region to the east this morning,
with very strong northwest winds developing behind it, especially
this afternoon. Northwest winds of 25 to 40 knots this afternoon
will decrease to 15 to 25 knots in the evening. VFR cigs and vsbys
are expected today and tonight.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ039-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
542 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-011045-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
542 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020 /442 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for today. Sustained winds of 25 to
40 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph will be possible. A few
locally higher gusts stronger than 55 mph will be possible for
locations west of the Missouri River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.