Wind Advisory 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

749 
WWUS75 KABQ 280540
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1040 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

NMZ206>208-226-239-280645-
/O.CAN.KABQ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200128T0700Z/
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
South Central Mountains-Eastern Lincoln County-
1040 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Northwest wind gusts have diminished well below 45 mph therefore 
the Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

NMZ235-236-281100-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0006.200128T0700Z-200128T2100Z/
Curry County-Roosevelt County-
1040 PM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Curry County and Roosevelt County.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured and light
  weight objects. Stross cross winds will impact east to west 
  oriented roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

696 
WWUS75 KABQ 280920
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
220 AM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

NMZ235-236-282100-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200128T2100Z/
Curry County-Roosevelt County-
220 AM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Curry County and Roosevelt County.

* WHEN...Through 2 PM MST Today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured and light
  weight objects. Strong cross winds will impact east to west 
  oriented roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

042 
WWUS75 KABQ 282034
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
134 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

NMZ235-236-282145-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-200128T2100Z/
Curry County-Roosevelt County-
134 PM MST Tue Jan 28 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

Northerly wind gusts have diminished below advisory levels, 
therefore, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire. However,
some breezy conditions will be possible through sunset.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1040 AM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A storm system and associated cold front will continue to move
eastward across northern NM through the evening, bringing MVFR to
IFR conditions, mountain obscurations, and rain and snow showers.
Western and central NM will be the focus for rain and high elevation
snow through around 00Z, and then a backdoor cold front moving
through the eastern plains tonight will shift the focus for
precipitation to the northeast. The other concern through the TAF
period will be strengthening northwest to northerly winds. Highest
gusts of 30 to 45 knots will be felt along the Continental Divide as
well as the south central mountains through the evening and then
across the eastern plains overnight. An Airport Weather Warning will
likely be issued for KABQ this afternoon. Conditions will improve to
VFR by morning after the system exits.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST Mon Jan 27 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A mix of windy and wintry weather enters the area today into tonight.
Relatively light snow accumulations are expected, with up to 4 to 6
inches atop the Sangre de Cristo Mountains down to Raton Pass by
tomorrow morning. Strong gusts of 45 mph will reach down to much of
western and central New Mexico this afternoon while a backdoor front
will also bring strong gusts to the far eastern plains this evening
and through tonight. Calmer weather returns Tuesday into early
Wednesday with a small rebound in temperatures. The next winter storm
system arrives late Wednesday and lasts through Thursday.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding precipitation extent and
amounts for this second storm system at this time. However, count on
a drop in temperatures for the northwest half of the state Wednesday
and through the eastern half of the state Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
An upper level trough and Pacific cold front will cross from the
west northwest with rain and snow showers mainly along and west of
the central mountain chain today. There may also be a few
thunderstorms in the mix from west central to south central areas
this afternoon. The trough will try to form a closed low as it gets
east of the southern Rockies this evening.  Wrap around moisture and
a back door cold front will spread rain and snow southward across
the eastern plains tonight, then precip will taper off pretty
quickly on Tuesday morning.  Precip amounts will generally be light,
but the mountains should pick up a few inches of snow, especially
north of I-40. The high peaks of the Sangre de Cristos should fare
best with locally up to 6 inches of snow, and nearly 4 inches
possible on Raton Pass.

Aside from the wintry mix of precipitation, northwest winds will
gust from 30 to 45 mph today, except across the northeast where
winds will be lighter. Wind speeds will strengthen this evening as a
speed maximum in the jet stream enters the back side of the exiting
trough.  The 700 mb flow is forecast to reach up to 55 kt for a time
this evening from west central to south central areas. This could
translate to 50 mph gusts at lower elevations, so this area is being
monitored for a potential Wind Advisory for the evening hours until
perhaps 3 AM or so.  Another area of concern for wind will be the
eastern plains tonight, where/when a back door cold front will
barrel southward with the potential for north wind gusts up to 50
mph along the TX border.

The weather will dry out Tuesday, and winds will weaken, but it will
be cool with highs near normal to as much as 5 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Considerable uncertainty remains for the late Wed/Thu system, however
enough certainty does exist Wednesday to say highs (relative to
Tuesday) across the northwest half of the state will fall with the
approaching system entering the area and highs will increase through
eastern NM as warmer southeasterly winds advect warmer air into that
part of the state. After that, take your pick because each of the
the three deterministic runs of the NAM12, GFS, and ECMWF handle the
dynamic evolution of this midweek winter storm quite differently. The
NAM12 seems to have a slight negative tilt to the jet max swooning
down the Great Basin Wed with two vort maxes entangling as the trough
closes off over AZ. This sets off an active deformation zone with
showers moving up the southern half of the state Thu with the low
slowly moving over the Chihuahuan Desert. Mind you, this is the end
of the NAM12's run and will have a tough time that far out given its
smaller domain. The GFS seems to phase the two vort maxes together
with a more progressive system and also looks to suck more moisture
from the east into NM. This sets the stage for a more a potential
convective band setting up over the eastern plains Thu. Meanwhile the
ECMWF does none of these and for the most part quietly moves the
closed low into the Big Bend region with seemingly light
precipitation favoring the western and northern high terrain early
Thu. Suffice to say, stuck with the NBM blend for PoPs during this
time and will continue to have to wait and see how these models
converge on less diverse solutions in the coming days.

The extended continues to at least show calmer and warmer weather
heading into next weekend with ridging attempting to build in from
the Pacific.

44/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures will trend downward today, then remain near and
below normal through the end of the work week as a couple of upper
level troughs cross from the northwest. There will be a mix of rain
and snow today and tonight, then again Wednesday through Thursday. There
may also be some isolated thunderstorms in the mix from west central
to south central areas today. Precipitation accumulation looks
modest but fairly widespread with the best chance for wetting
precipitation in the mountains and across parts of the east with both
storm systems. Northwest wind gusts will generally reach 30 to 45
mph across all but the northeast today, then speeds will strengthen
tonight with gusts up to 55 mph from west central to south central
areas. Also tonight, a back door cold front will barrel southward
through the eastern plains with gusts up to 50 mph possible near the
TX border. Gusts up to 40 mph will linger across far eastern NM into
Tuesday.

Warmer and drier weather will return Friday through the weekend as a
ridge of high pressure builds over the southwest US.

Ventilation will improve with the gusty winds today, but vent rates
will remain poor over northeast areas where winds won't be as
strong. Areas of poor ventilation are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, then poor ventilation will become widespread Thursday
through the weekend.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
336 AM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

NMZ201>241-281200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
336 AM MST Mon Jan 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light to moderate snowfall is expected across the western half of the
state today, spreading to the eastern plains generally north of I-40
tonight. A light dusting at lower elevations with several inches up
to 4 to 6 inches atop the peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
at Raton Pass. Slick roads and difficult travel conditions will be
likely through mountain passes and at Raton Pass this afternoon into
the evening.

Meanwhile strong northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts upwards
of 50 mph will reach the terrain along the continental divide this
afternoon. Strong north winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts upwards of
45 mph are then expected to reach portions of far eastern NM near
the TX border tonight. Strong crosswinds will be a concern for any
high profile vehicles through these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A second, potentially more potent winter storm system is expected to
arrive late Wednesday and last through Thursday. There remains
considerable uncertainty regarding storm track and precipitation
amounts with this storm system. However temperatures are expected to
drop with the potential for at the least new snow over the western
and northern high terrain. Stay tuned as the forecast evolves for
this mid-week storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

24