Wind Advisory 19, NWS Albuquerque, NM

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WWUS75 KABQ 021724
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

NMZ202-205>207-210-212>216-218-219-221>223-229-030200-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0019.200402T1800Z-200403T0200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
1124 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, 
  northwest and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

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WWUS75 KABQ 030136
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
736 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

NMZ202-205>207-210-212>216-218-219-221>223-229-030245-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-200403T0200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-Northeast Highlands-
736 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have weakened from their peaks earlier in the day and are
expected to continue to taper off through the evening. Breezy
conditions will remain behind a backdoor cold front pushing
through northeastern New Mexico, but these winds are expected to 
stay below advisory conditions.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
246 AM MDT Thu Apr 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Critical fire weather with warm, windy, and dry conditions continue
today. Cooler temperatures arrive into eastern New Mexico with
daytime highs sharply falling 15-25F Friday. Low clouds are likely to
develop Friday and Saturday mornings across portions of the eastern
plains as the backdoor front is expected to bring modest gap winds to
Albuquerque and Santa Fe Friday night. A few light snow showers
could also develop over the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Warm, dry, and windy weather resumes Sunday and Monday,
potentially lasting to Wednesday before much welcomed precipitation
looks to arrive from the Pacific late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A short wave trough will be forced toward the central Rockies today,
feeding strong west southwest flow over NM. At the surface a cold
front will dive southward across the Great Plains, but should put
the brakes on just prior to infiltrating the Land of Enchantment as
a new surface low becomes anchored over northeastern parts of the
state this afternoon. This will set the stage for another windy day
across much of the forecast area, and a wind advisory will be issued
for several northern and central zones. As temperature lapse rates
steepen and vertical mixing ensues this afternoon, high-based
cumulus are expected to develop over many of these zones. Forecast
soundings are exposing inverted-V signatures that would impart the
threat for virga showers, or sprinkles and mostly gusty downdraft
gusts enhanced by evaporative cooling. Temperatures will not deviate
much from yesterday’s highs, running 5 to 10 degrees above average
in the eastern plains and near normal elsewhere.

Into this evening, the aforementioned cold front will make its way
into northeastern NM and eventually the remainder of the eastern
plains of the state by dawn Friday. While dewpoints are not forecast
to undergo a significant jump behind the front, the cold air
advection and frontogenetical forcing should yield at least a band
of low stratus, if not a large invasive swath of low clouds. Strong
gusts will also accompany the front in the plains, but it is
expected to stall near the central mountain chain into Friday.
Daytime highs will be notably cooler in the east Friday, but also a
few degrees lower over remaining zones where the Pacific segment of
the front will make a less substantial impact. Breezy conditions are
forecast into Friday afternoon with low prospects for any measurable
precipitation as the surface flow regains a southerly component.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The backdoor cold front stalled across eastern NM Friday resumes its
westerly march through the gaps of the central mountain chain Friday
night into Saturday morning. A modest gap wind at Santa Fe and
Albuquerque is likely with a slight uptick in low-level moisture
spilling into the RGV. Low clouds and some pockets of fog could also
be likely across a good portion of eastern NM, favoring the eastern
slopes of the central mountain chain Saturday morning. The upslope
flow is also favoring some light flurries developing along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, however little to no
accumulation is expected. Daytime highs across eastern New Mexico
will greatly depend on if the low cloud deck develops and when it
mixes out if it does develop.

Dry and warm southwest flow begins to take hold over the region
Saturday with breezy conditions in the afternoon. This pattern
strengthens Sunday and Monday as a deepening low develops off the CA
coastline. Numerical models continue to trend moisture advection from
the Gulf further out of far southeastern NM Sunday. This continues
to trend of any afternoon thunderstorm activity Sunday staying out of
the forecast area into far western TX. Daytime highs trend up with
humidity falling each day and favoring the return of critical fire
weather conditions (see Fire Wx Discussion).

Uncertainty remains concerning the Pacific low's arrival into the
Desert Southwest and New Mexico next week. The operational GFS
remains the lone outlier showing the earliest arrival of
showers/storms into New Mexico Wednesday. Even the GFS Ensemble Mean
appears 12-24 hours behind and more in line with the ECMWF. So
followed the NBM guidance with PoPs and Sky coverage trending down
for next Tue/Wed, delayed until Thu. The unfortunate aspect of this
forecast trend means that elevated/critical fire conditions may
persist into Tue/Wed, especially favoring the eastern plains.

52/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy and dry conditions will be prevalent across much of central
and eastern New Mexico today where soil moisture has been dropping
the past several days. Higher Haines values are also expected there
today due to deeper vertical mixing and drier mid level conditions,
and above normal temperatures in eastern NM will really cap off the
critical fire weather threat there. While stronger winds and
lowering humidity is also forecast to extend into portions of
northwestern and west central NM today, there remains some
uncertainty on impacts due to higher soil moisture values, lower
energy release components, lower Haines values, and more seasonable
temperatures.

Into Friday, cooler temperatures and lower wind speeds will
alleviate any critical threat. Drier conditions will begin returning
and expanding in southwestern parts of the forecast area Saturday,
but winds should remain less than critical with temperatures having
just rebounded back to, if not slightly above, normal. By Sunday,
drier and stronger southwesterly flow aloft will become better
established over NM, potentially providing the next windy, dry, and
critical period of concern that could last into Monday and Tuesday
of next week, especially for the eastern plains.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New
Mexico and should persist for the next 18 hours with deteriorating
conditions Thursday evening in northeastern New Mexico. Prior to
that, winds will be the primary aviation hazard, increasing in the
late morning Thursday and peaking in the afternoon. Gusts of 25 to 40
kt will be common. Winds will generally subside after dark Thursday
evening, but a cold front will quickly spill into northeastern New
Mexico, causing winds to quickly shift northerly and surge in speed
again. Low stratus clouds will also likely accompany this front with
MVFR to IFR ceilings expected.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  31  60  35 /  10   5   5   5
Dulce...........................  62  29  56  30 /  20  20  10  10
Cuba............................  63  32  58  35 /  10  10  10   5
Gallup..........................  66  28  61  30 /   5   5   5   0
El Morro........................  61  27  59  31 /   0  10  10   0
Grants..........................  66  30  63  31 /   5  10  10   0
Quemado.........................  65  28  62  32 /   0   0  10   0
Datil...........................  65  30  62  33 /   0   0  10   0
Glenwood........................  69  38  68  43 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  53  25  50  27 /  30  20  10  10
Los Alamos......................  63  41  57  35 /  20  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  62  35  55  33 /  10   5  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  59  30  54  29 /  20  10  10  10
Red River.......................  52  24  46  27 /  20  20  20  10
Angel Fire......................  55  19  49  25 /  10  10  20  20
Taos............................  63  31  57  31 /  10  10  10  10
Mora............................  63  31  53  28 /  10   5  10  20
Espanola........................  70  38  64  37 /  10   5  10  10
Santa Fe........................  64  38  59  36 /  10   5  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  68  37  61  35 /  10   5  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  44  65  41 /  10   5  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72  46  66  42 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  74  40  68  41 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  43  67  42 /  10   5  10   0
Belen...........................  76  41  71  39 /   5   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  73  41  67  40 /  10   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  75  40  68  39 /   5   0  10   0
Corrales........................  73  41  68  41 /  10   5  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  75  40  69  40 /   5   5  10   0
Placitas........................  71  41  65  41 /  10   5  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  72  41  66  41 /  10   5  10   0
Socorro.........................  79  43  73  42 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  66  37  60  37 /  10   5  10   5
Tijeras.........................  69  39  63  38 /  10   5  10   5
Edgewood........................  68  36  62  33 /   5   0  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  33  65  31 /   5   0  10   5
Clines Corners..................  66  32  57  31 /   5   0  10  10
Mountainair.....................  69  37  64  35 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  69  39  64  36 /   0   0  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  71  43  67  43 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  65  38  61  39 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  67  25  49  24 /   0  20  10   5
Raton...........................  70  29  52  26 /   5  10  10  10
Springer........................  73  30  55  27 /   0   0  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  67  30  52  28 /   5   5  10  10
Clayton.........................  72  27  50  27 /   0  10   5   5
Roy.............................  71  30  52  28 /   0   0   5   5
Conchas.........................  78  35  58  34 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  77  35  59  35 /   0   0   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  80  36  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  78  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  79  37  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  79  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  84  46  69  44 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  76  43  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  71  41  65  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ103>108.

Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ202-205>207-210-212>216-218-219-221>223-229.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
357 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020

NMZ201>241-021100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
357 PM MDT Wed Apr 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7 PM for the Northeast and East
Central Plains where low humidities combined with strong winds will
create critical fire weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 7 PM for most of easter
New Mexico, the Middle Rio Grande Valley, and west central NM where
low humidities combined with strong winds will create critical fire
weather conditions.

Stronger southwest winds combining with dry conditions and low
humidities looks o return Sunday and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Contact your local law enforcement at 911 and the National Weather
Service at 1.888.386.7637 to report wildfire outbreaks.

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