Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
235 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The high pressure center is moving out of southeast NM into TX this
evening and Thursday, and will continue east to central TX Friday.
The high then does an about face and drifts back over NM this
weekend, with the center of the high near the AZ/NM/Mexico borders.
The high should remain in place through the early and mid portions of
next week, strengthening some. It will remain active into the weekend
then convection will lessen Monday through Wednesday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
The upper-level high has shifted a bit farther eastward compared to
24 hours ago and is now centered over southeastern NM. Water vapor
imagery shows a modest increase in mid-level moisture across the
area with the highest PWATs in southern NM supported by the 1.02"
PWAT on KEPZ's 12Z sounding. This set-up has allowed for an uptick
in storm coverage across southern and western NM this afternoon.
However, with a lack of low-level moisture as observed by dewpoints
in the 30's and 40's, today's crop of storms has generally been weak
so far. Return flow across the east has also allowed convection to
form along the central mountain, and with better low-level moisture
in the east, this is the area where stronger storms with relatively
higher precip amounts will be favored. The severe threat will
continue through early this evening across the northeast where a few
storms may produce large hail and damaging winds, but with less
shear, the severe threat looks isolated.

The H5 high moves farther east into west TX on Thursday which looks
to be a fairly similar day to today. Highest PWATs of near to
slightly above an inch will continue to reside in southern NM, but
lack of low-level moisture will still lead to light QPF amounts.
Storms look to form over the high terrain, but will likely struggle
moving into lower elevation areas. Return flow continuing across the
east will still keep isolated to widely scattered storms in the
forecast for areas along and east of the central mountain chain as
well. With upper-level flow becoming more westerly, shear will
continue to decrease across the northeast. Still 25-30 knots of bulk
shear with MLCAPE near 1500-2000 J/kg will be enough to continue the
isolated severe thunderstorm risk for the northeastern corner of the
state on Thursday.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
High pressure aloft will remain to our east Friday, then move back
over NM this weekend and remain in place while strengthening early
to mid next week. Typical monsoonal flow will bring moisture north
and northeast into NM, keeping isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday, mostly the west and
central areas. We cannot rule out a few strong and maybe severe
storms in the northeast Friday afternoon and evening.

As the high moves back over NM this weekend, we will begin to notice
a decrease in showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. And as the high
deepens we will continue to see less convective coverage early and
mid next week, isolated and probably confined to the western and
central mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With the area of high pressure moving from southeast NM today into
west TX Thursday through Saturday, showers and storms will continue
to favor southwest and west central NM. Return flow across the east
which also generate isolated to widely scattered storms in the east
each day as well. However, with the lack of low-level moisture in
the west, precipitation amounts will be light with maybe slightly
higher amounts in the east. The high pressure builds back over NM by
Sunday and continues shifting west into early next week. This will
allow drier air to filter into the state with a significant downtick
in storm coverage looking likely next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
More mid-level moisture in the atmosphere will allow for greater
storm coverage across southwest and west-central NM today. The
primary concern with any storms across the west today will be gusty
downburst winds as storms move to the northeast around 15-20 mph. A
backdoor boundary that moved through late last night will also allow
storms to develop along the central mountain chain and move eastward
onto the adjacent highlands and plains. A few strong to severe
storms with large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across
the northeast. Storms will taper off late this evening, and VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  94  60  92 /   5   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  52  87  50  87 /  10   5   5  10
Cuba............................  58  88  57  87 /  20  10  10  10
Gallup..........................  54  89  55  88 /  10   5   5  10
El Morro........................  52  83  53  83 /  20  20  10  20
Grants..........................  55  86  56  86 /  20  20  10  20
Quemado.........................  55  83  56  84 /  20  30  10  40
Magdalena.......................  61  85  61  85 /  30  30  20  40
Datil...........................  55  81  56  80 /  30  30  20  50
Reserve.........................  56  90  55  89 /  20  20  10  50
Glenwood........................  64  96  64  93 /  20  20  10  40
Chama...........................  50  81  49  82 /  10   5   5  10
Los Alamos......................  63  85  62  86 /  20  10  10  20
Pecos...........................  60  86  60  86 /  20  10  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  55  83  54  85 /  20  10  10  20
Red River.......................  49  75  49  76 /  20  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  40  78  41  80 /  20  20  10  20
Taos............................  53  87  53  87 /  10  10  10  20
Mora............................  56  84  54  84 /  20  20  10  20
Espanola........................  62  92  62  92 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Fe........................  61  88  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  58  90  60  90 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  91  67  93 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  95  65  95 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  93  66  94 /  10  10  10  10
Belen...........................  65  94  65  94 /  10  10  10  20
Bernalillo......................  63  95  64  97 /  10  10  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  64  93  64  94 /  10  10  10  20
Corrales........................  64  95  65  96 /  10  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  64  93  64  94 /  10  10  10  20
Placitas........................  65  90  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  94  66  95 /  10  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  68  95  67  95 /  20  20  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  87  62  85 /  20  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  62  90  63  88 /  10  10  10  20
Edgewood........................  58  90  59  90 /  10  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  91  56  92 /  10  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  59  87  59  88 /  10  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  60  88  60  88 /  20  20  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  87  60  88 /  20  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  67  91  66  91 /  20  20  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  60  85  60  83 /  40  40  20  50
Capulin.........................  56  87  56  87 /  40  20  10  20
Raton...........................  56  91  55  92 /  30  20  10  20
Springer........................  57  91  56  92 /  30  20  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  88  57  88 /  20  10  10  20
Clayton.........................  61  92  63  94 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  61  90  60  92 /  20  20  10  10
Conchas.........................  67  99  68  99 /  20  10  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  65  95  66  96 /  20  20  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  70 100  71 101 /  20  10  10  10
Clovis..........................  68  98  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
Portales........................  69  99  69  99 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  68  97  69  99 /  20  10  20  10
Roswell.........................  71 102  72 102 /  10  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  66  93  65  94 /  30  30  20  40
Elk.............................  63  89  63  92 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NMZ201>241-060930-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
327 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over far northeast
New Mexico with a threat for damaging hail and winds. Any severe
storm that forms will be isolated in nature for the afternoon and
evening hours today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm activity and coverage may increase through the end of
the week with higher chances on Friday. A strong to severe storm may
be possible Thursday, Friday and Saturday with a threat for hail and
downburst winds. The flood threat looks low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail or wind damage through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

39

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
155 PM MDT WED AUG 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE BONITO LAKE        33.45N 105.72W
08/05/2020                   LINCOLN            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001399

RJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NMZ224-052100-
South Central Highlands-
231 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN...EASTERN
SOCORRO AND SOUTHERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Claunch, or 18 miles southwest of Corona, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Claunch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3403 10594 3417 10601 3433 10578 3433 10575
      3432 10573 3413 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 245DEG 9KT 3414 10590

24

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