Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will bring brief periods of MVFR
reductions from locally heavy rainfall, BR and erratic and gusty
outflow winds once again this afternoon and evening. All locations
in the forecast area stand a chance for brief MVFR conditions from
any passing storm with the exception of KROW where it is expected to
remain dry.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A couple more days of favorable thunderstorm coverage and locally
heavy rainfall before drier air filters into the area from the
northwest bringing an end to the active pattern. Rain chances on
Wednesday and Thursday will be scarce and focused mainly over the
northeast quarter and southern high terrain. This mid-week drying
trend will allow daytime temperatures to trend significantly warmer
with triple digit heat returning to parts of the southeast plains.
Improving moisture levels will bring isolated to scattered
thunderstorms back to the area Friday into the weekend with the
northern mountains and northeast favored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Subtle changes will begin to take shape today with a 592dm H5 high
migrating over southeastern NM today. The abnormally moist monsoon
plume will continue over western and northern NM where PWATs will
remain near or above the 90th percentile of 1.10" to 1.20". GOES
GeoColor imagery is depicting some clearing of the mid-level cloud
deck tonight. If this continues like yesterday, it will allow
efficient diurnal heating to fully take advantage of the abundant
tropical moisture to produce scattered to widespread storms over
western and northern NM today. Steering flow will generally be weak
toward the NW/N over western NM and more erratic to easterly over the
northern mountains. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor boundary has moved
through northeastern NM and is expected to stall along or near the
I-40 corridor from the TX border to central mountain chain. HiRes CAM
models are showing convection firing up along this stalled boundary
beneath the center of the upper high, meaning they will be very slow
to move, if at all. Given all of the above, have decided to expand
and extend the Flash Flood Watch already over the northeastern plains
to cover most of west- central NM and the Rio Grande Valley as well
as the I-40 corridor through east-central NM for today to midnight
tonight. Confidence is lower for the lower RGV in Socorro County, but
this area will be particular sensitive to flooding from any amount
of rain given yesterday's flash flooding events.

Tuesday will see the H5 high migrate further west over AZ bringing
drier westerly flow into the Four Corners area. Moisture will remain
across much of the rest of the state, and westerly steering flow
will take afternoon terrain based convection eastward over the
eastern plains toward the TX border Tuesday afternoon. The chances
for any isolated severe storms over northeastern NM Tuesday
afternoon will be interesting, but with low confidence. Low level
inflow doesn't look to support the best shearing environment, but
cannot rule out a stray wet microburst.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A pronounced
drying/warming trend expected Wednesday into Thursday as a broad
plume of negative PWAT anomalies originating over AZ overspreads the
area from the northwest. This drier air will be wrapping clockwise
around strong high pressure aloft that will center up over northern
AZ on Wednesday, shift slightly north/east on Thursday before
settling back south over central or eastern AZ on Friday. Models in
good agreement. Thursday looks to be the hottest day of the week for
most locales. Forecast 93F at Gallup would tie the 5th hottest July
30th on record, which interestingly was last observed in 2019.

Meanwhile, weak wave of lower pressure along the CA coast will
eventually top the building ridge and emerge out east of the CO
Rockies late Tuesday brushing northeast NM. As a result, anticipate
strong if not at least isolated pockets of severe convection to be
on-going across parts of of northeast New Mexico Tuesday evening
beneath a briefly enhanced northwest flow aloft. Will need to monitor
any notable outflow boundary that gets shoved farther west and south
than what any of the latest medium range models suggest. This could
muddle up the forecast for central/eastern areas mid-week to include
low probability of moist easterly gap winds into the RGV.

Beyond Tuesday night, while a drier-than-average air mass will
dominate the western half to two-thirds of the area mid to late week,
a couple more potentially moist backdoor fronts should boost
moisture/storm chances east of the central mountain chain -- one
later Thursday into Friday and possibly a third this weekend. The
00Z GFS is about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF with the Thursday
backdoor front. Will continue to highlight best chances for
convection along the northern and eastern periphery of the strong
high for Wed/Thu with a gradual uptick in coverage late week as
moisture levels gradually improve especially central and east.
Daytime highs will be above to well above average.

RJH/KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical fire weather concerns. Monsoon moisture remains today
with fairly slow storm motions, south to north over western NM and
more west to east over northern NM. Locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are still the main concern with any passing storm, along
with erratic gusty wind shifts. An upper high moving over
southeastern NM today, migrates further west Tuesday sending storms
off the high terrain over eastern NM. The upper high strengthens
near the Four Corners Wednesday and beyond, shutting down the flow
of monsoon moisture, raising temperatures, and introducing high
Haines to western NM. A backdoor front Thursday into Friday will
replenish moisture and bring a return of storm chances to eastern NM
for Friday into the weekend.

RJH

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ203>208-210>224-227>234-241.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

NMZ201>241-281100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
323 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall can be expected
across much of the area this afternoon and evening. Storms will
generally move toward the northeast at 10 to 15 mph across central
and western New Mexico, while storm motions will be toward the east-
southeast at similar speeds across the east. The southeast plains
will once again be least favored while areas from southwest through
central to north- central and northeast New Mexico will be most
favored. Rainfall rates up to one inch in 45 minutes will be
possible with the most intense storms. This may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent and older
burn scars and areas that have experience heavy rainfall the past
several days. Isolated locations may receive up to 2 inches of
rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to
50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Tuesday
evening with a focus for strong storms shifting into northeast New
Mexico during the evening. Storm motions will be toward the east or
southeast. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to localized areas of
flash flooding. A few storms may also produce hail and wind gusts to
50 mph. Far fewer storms are expected Wednesday and Thursday with an
uptick in storm coverage across the northeast quarter for Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report severe weather through the National Weather
Service Albuquerque web site or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

41

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
155 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MADRID                  35.41N 106.15W
07/26/2020                   SANTA FE           NM   PUBLIC

            MOST ARROYOS FULL WITH WATER AND FLOWING OVER COUNTY
            ROADS AND DRIVEWAYS. DAMAGE NOTED TO ROADWAYS AROUND
            GOLDMINE RD... CERRILLOS... AND MADRID.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001370

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

NMZ234>237-272030-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-De Baca County-
202 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROOSEVELT...EAST CENTRAL
DE BACA...SOUTHWESTERN QUAY AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM
MDT...

At 201 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of House to near Clovis and
Texico. These storms were nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis, Farwell, Texico, Melrose, House, Saint Vrain, Ranchvale,
Taiban, Tolar and Cannon Air Force Base.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 336 and 397.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10411 3476 10411 3456 10304 3426 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 330DEG 4KT 3461 10403 3444 10309

Guyer