Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Storms this afternoon will favor northern and eastern New Mexico,
with a marginal risk of a few becoming strong to severe. A mix of wet
and dry storms are also possible west of the Continental Divide
today. Drier and hotter conditions will prevail starting midweek as a
strong high pressure system parks over the Desert Southwest. Many
locations include the Albuquerque metro, Socorro, and the eastern
plains could see high temperatures reaching or surpassing the century
mark by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Upper-level high centered over southwest NM this afternoon will
expand northward through west-central and northwest NM tonight and
Monday. Meanwhile at the surface, rain-cooled air from scattered
showers and storms in northeast and east-central NM this evening
will slide to the southwest overnight and result in slightly better
low-level moisture and storm chances for central portions of the
state Monday afternoon. Hi-res models agree that the Sandias and
Manzanos have the greatest increase in storm chances for Monday
afternoon. Enough moisture may push far enough west for an isolated
storm or two over Mt. Taylor with outflow from these showers/storms
helping to get a storm or two going in the Santa Fe and ABQ metros.
The far NE and SE Heights of ABQ along with Rio Rancho stand the
best shot at a brief shower or thunderstorm late Monday afternoon.
By Monday evening, showers and storms shift east of the central
mountain chain (a broken "chain" consisting of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains southwestward to the Sandia/Manzano Mountains south-
southeast to the Gallinas and Sacramento Mountains).

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Precipitation chances begin to decrease, as high pressure aloft
looks to park over the Land of Enchantment Tuesday. The highest
potential for storms Tuesday afternoon favor the Sangre de Cristo and
Sacramento mtns, with storms moving into the central highlands.
Drier conditions will prevail across the west, as the high pressure
weakens slightly and westerly flow aloft sets up.

By Wednesday, the high restrengthens and elongates and zonal flow
becomes dominant, thus diverting the Gulf moisture away from New
Mexico. High temperatures will began to climb steadily, as the high
fortifies its position over the desert SW. Models are beginning to
come into agreement on the strength of the high, but are still
diverging in regards to its movement. The ECMWF continues to be the
most bullish, elongating and strengthening the high well into the
weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS shows the high wobbling more
northeasterly, allowing some moisture to punch in from northern
Mexico across the west. The CMC shows this return flow sliding up the
western New Mexico border Monday afternoon. Its placement and
moisture potential aside, all models seem to converge on the upper
high reaching a 600 dm height by Saturday. This will bring
temperatures near the century mark for the ABQ metro and near to
surpassing the century mark for much of the lower terrain.

The high's placement and intensity continue to be the determining
factors on if the Land of Enchantment will see a plume of monsoon
moisture. If the high is able to drift north or northwest, the
subsequent backdoor fronts may be able to pull in Gulf moisture.

33/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low-level moisture increases from the east tonight, resulting in
better chances for showers and storms in the Sandias/Manzanos and
possibly the Mt. Taylor area Monday afternoon. Tuesday's round of
afternoon and early evening storms will favor the central mountain
chain eastward while dry air continues across western areas. The dry
air wins out in all areas Wednesday and temperatures start to climb
to well above average levels. Hot and dry will be the rule Wednesday
through Friday and likely into next weekend.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Today's crop of afternoon and evening thunderstorms will favor eastern
NM with the potential of a few strong to severe storms across the
northeast quarter of the state. Isolated showers/storms are possible
west and north with gusty outflow winds in western NM and little in
the way of rainfall. Showers and storms are forecast to diminish/dissipate
after 06/03Z. A brief bout of moderate east canyon winds will develop
at KABQ around sunset and continue until approximately 06/08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  98  65  97 /   0   5  10   0
Dulce...........................  50  92  51  92 /  10  10  10  10
Cuba............................  55  91  59  92 /   0  10  20  10
Gallup..........................  52  95  54  93 /   0  10  10   0
El Morro........................  50  91  53  88 /   0  10  10   5
Grants..........................  51  92  54  92 /   0  20  10   5
Quemado.........................  54  89  58  89 /   0  10  10   5
Magdalena.......................  61  90  64  91 /   5  20  20  10
Datil...........................  56  89  60  88 /   0  20  20  10
Reserve.........................  51  96  53  95 /   0  20  10   5
Glenwood........................  62  98  67  98 /   0  10  10   5
Chama...........................  47  86  49  85 /  20  20  20  10
Los Alamos......................  61  86  64  87 /  10  30  20  20
Pecos...........................  57  84  61  87 /  20  40  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  52  83  56  85 /  20  30  20  40
Red River.......................  45  75  48  76 /  30  40  20  40
Angel Fire......................  39  78  44  79 /  20  40  20  50
Taos............................  48  89  54  88 /  20  20  20  30
Mora............................  51  82  52  84 /  20  40  30  50
Espanola........................  59  93  62  93 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  60  88  65  89 /  10  30  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  57  91  64  92 /  10  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  70  94 /   0  20  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  95  69  96 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  97  65  98 /   0  10  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  96  67  98 /   0  20  20  10
Belen...........................  64  98  66  99 /   0  10  20   5
Bernalillo......................  64  97  65  98 /   0  10  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  62  96  64  98 /   0  10  20  10
Corrales........................  63  97  66  99 /   0  10  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  62  97  66  98 /   0  10  20   5
Placitas........................  64  93  68  93 /   5  20  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  96  66  97 /   0  20  20  10
Socorro.........................  66  99  71 100 /   5  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  89  63  89 /   5  30  20  10
Tijeras.........................  57  91  60  93 /   5  30  20  10
Edgewood........................  55  90  57  92 /  10  30  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  91  57  94 /  10  30  20  20
Clines Corners..................  55  87  60  88 /  20  50  30  20
Mountainair.....................  57  89  60  91 /   5  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  58  89  61  91 /   5  40  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  93  66  93 /   5  30  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  56  85  59  85 /  10  40  30  50
Capulin.........................  53  83  58  85 /  30  30  20  40
Raton...........................  53  89  56  90 /  30  30  20  40
Springer........................  55  88  58  89 /  30  30  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  53  85  56  87 /  30  40  30  40
Clayton.........................  58  87  64  91 /  40  10  10  20
Roy.............................  58  86  62  88 /  40  30  20  30
Conchas.........................  63  93  68  96 /  50  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  67  94 /  40  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  65  92  69  97 /  50  10  10   5
Clovis..........................  63  89  65  93 /  60  20  10   5
Portales........................  65  90  66  95 /  60  10  10   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65  91  67  95 /  50  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  69  94  70  99 /  10  10  20  10
Picacho.........................  62  91  64  92 /  10  20  20  30
Elk.............................  59  87  61  88 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ201>241-061100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across eastern New Mexico where frequent
lightning, damaging winds, and hail are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Storms will continue to favor the central mountain chain eastward
Monday and Tuesday with storm coverage trending down. A few strong
storms will be possible with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and
hail possible.

Heat builds in through New Mexico for the middle to latter portions
of next week with 100s likely for eastern New Mexico and the lower
Rio Grande Valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
358 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ238-239-052230-
Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-
358 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL
CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles northwest of Bitter Lake Wildlife
Refuge to 12 miles east of Tinnie. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Roswell and Bitter Lake Wildlife Refuge.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 103 and 122.
 Highway 380 between Mile Markers 156 and 167.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 10428 3318 10481 3345 10513 3367 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 305DEG 22KT 3357 10455 3338 10500

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ233-052245-
Guadalupe County-
423 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 423 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vaughn, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vaughn.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 190 and 204.
 Highway 60 between Mile Markers 266 and 279.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 10520 3436 10531 3446 10531 3464 10525
      3462 10504 3435 10503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 007DEG 14KT 3452 10517

12/42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ238-052300-
Chaves County Plains-
440 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 440 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkins, or 40 miles northeast of Roswell, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkins and U.S. Highway 70.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 10412 3386 10397 3372 10372 3353 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 313DEG 13KT 3374 10398

12/42

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
443 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

NMZ232-052300-
Eastern San Miguel County-
443 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 443 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Variadero, or 32 miles southwest of Mosquero, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Variadero and Trementina.

This includes State Road 104 between Mile Markers 42 and 56.

&&

LAT...LON 3529 10450 3553 10460 3555 10459 3557 10457
      3558 10458 3569 10439 3549 10410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 322DEG 25KT 3552 10443

Guyer