Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Northwest flow aloft continues today, although not as strong as
Tuesday. Surface winds are generally from the south or southwest.
This will allow for moderate Effective Bulk Shear to go along with
decent mixed layer Capes around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and surface-based
Lifted Indices of -4 to -6. The most favorable conditions look to be
in the east again. Storms will continue into tonight, mostly ending
shortly after midnight. A weak ridge of high pressure will move over
NM Thursday with higher heights and lighter winds. Convection will
mainly be from the central mountains east, with less of a threat for
severe weather. An upper trough/closed low will slowly approach
Friday and Saturday and finally cross NM Sunday. Thunderstorms will
still favor the east each day, although the western mountains could
see a storm or two Saturday. The westerlies will arrive next week
with drier, windier and hot weather.

40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Subtle air mass moistening along the NM/AZ line extending southward
into SW/SC New Mexico per 24-hour change charts, especially along
and west of the Divide. This moisture is isolated high-based
thunderstorms as far west as the Gallup/Zuni areas where gusts of
60+ mph already observed. Added a mention of DryT to these
aforementioned areas for the first part of the evening with the main
threat being localized downburst winds/virga bombs given the
inverted-V profiles. Elsewhere, atmospheric moisture has trended
downward for much of central and eastern NM as compared to Tuesday.
Latest mixed-layer CAPE values 1000-1200 J/kg limited to a swath
from the far northeast plains to the east slopes of the
Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains. While the overall coverage/vigor  of
thunderstorms will be less as compared to Tuesday owing to less
instability, a southerly boundary layer flow (S-SW) remains topped
by modest northwest flow in the mid to upper-levels of the
troposphere. Resultant 0-6km bulk shear of 20-30 knots (greatest
with southward extent) will serve to organize/support a few
strong/severe storms into the evening mainly near/east of the
central mountain chain as they roll toward the south-southeast with
convective modes quickly trending multicellular along/north of I-40
with cell mergers possibly resulting in more of a wind threat vice
large hail. South of I-40, and particularly from eastern Socorro to
Lincoln to SW Chaves counties, there could be a brief window for an
isolated, discrete supercell or two late this afternoon. Perusal of
latest convection allowing models suggests most of the activity
ending shortly after 04Z-05Z. Pared back  NBM PoP guidance
significant for Thursday morning, but latest indications are that
drier air will begin to reassert itself across central and western
New Mexico on Thursday with even less moisture and weaker/less
pronounced vertical shear profiles.

41

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A trough with a closed low over the Great Basin Friday will ever so
slowly move east and not cross NM until Sunday. Showers and
thunderstorms will primarily impact the central mountains to the TX
border each day Friday through Sunday. The westerlies return early
next week as we approach July. This will mean dry and hot weather
with an increase in wind, bringing about fire weather concerns once
again.

40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper ridge to the west of New Mexico will gradually shift eastward
and weekend over the area Thursday through Friday.  Drier air will
accompany this eastward shift as transport winds become more west-
southwest to east-northeast.   This will end the chances of
thunderstorms for areas west of the Rio Grande with the focus for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the east. Otherwise a
hot, dry and unstable airmass will continue Thursday and Friday west
of the Continental Divide, with some afternoon breezes.

A weak trough indicated to set up west of New Mexico this weekend
may help to draw some moisture northward into SC/SW areas but likely
remain south of our forecast zones. Otherwise, hot and dry pattern
for most of the area this weekend with some modest breezes strong.
est in the Four Corners.  Looking ahead, a much deeper and more
significant low pressure system indicated to move into the northwest
states early next week. This will bring strengthening southwesterly
transport winds early next week with potential for a critical fire
growing period across much of the area Monday into Tuesday as even
drier air spread eastward. Still a lot of uncertainty on the timing
and should this Pacific low slow down and remain farther west, as.
the ECMWF suggests,  then critical fire weather impacts will
lessen.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected this
afternoon and evening... with a few capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds across parts of central to eastern NM mainly
between 20Z and 03Z. Storm motions will once again be toward the
south- southeast. Initial development over the higher terrain, per
typical diurnal trends, with favored areas from the northeast
highlands and far northeast plains southwestward to south- central
and southeast areas. Latest high resolution models also suggest the
potential for isolated high-based thunderstorms vicinity of KGUP and
areas west of the CONTDVD capable of localized strong downburst
winds. Thunderstorm impacts to include brief MVFR incursions are
possible at KLVS, KTCC and KROW.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  97  59  95 /   0   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  49  92  48  92 /   0  20   5  20
Cuba............................  55  92  56  91 /   5  10   5  10
Gallup..........................  53  93  52  92 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  51  89  51  88 /   5   5   0   5
Grants..........................  52  92  53  92 /  10  10   0   5
Quemado.........................  54  90  53  89 /   5   5   0   5
Magdalena.......................  60  91  61  92 /  20  10   0  10
Datil...........................  55  88  55  87 /  10  10   0   5
Reserve.........................  50  96  52  94 /   5   5   0   5
Glenwood........................  61  98  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  48  85  47  86 /  10  30  10  20
Los Alamos......................  60  86  60  88 /  10  20  10  10
Pecos...........................  56  87  57  87 /  20  20  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  51  84  52  87 /  20  40  10  20
Red River.......................  44  75  46  77 /  30  50  20  40
Angel Fire......................  39  79  40  80 /  20  40  20  40
Taos............................  50  88  50  89 /  20  30   5  20
Mora............................  51  85  53  85 /  20  40  20  30
Espanola........................  58  92  58  96 /  10  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  59  90  59  88 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  57  92  57  92 /  20  10   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  94  66  97 /  20   5   5   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  96  66  97 /  20   5   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  99  64  99 /  20   5   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  97  65  98 /  20   5   0   5
Belen...........................  62  99  62  99 /  20   5   0   5
Bernalillo......................  61  98  62  99 /  20   5   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  60  99  61  98 /  20   5   0   5
Corrales........................  60  98  62  99 /  20   5   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  59  99  61  98 /  20   5   0   5
Placitas........................  63  93  64  93 /  20   5   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  63  97  64  98 /  20   5   0   5
Socorro.........................  63 100  64 100 /  20   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  91  60  89 /  20  10   5   5
Tijeras.........................  57  93  61  92 /  20  10   5   5
Edgewood........................  53  93  57  93 /  20  10   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  94  50  94 /  20  10   5   5
Clines Corners..................  55  89  56  89 /  20  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  57  91  58  91 /  20  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  90  58  91 /  30  10  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  61  93  65  94 /  40  20   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  85  59  87 /  50  30  10  30
Capulin.........................  55  86  56  83 /  40  50  30  50
Raton...........................  52  89  52  88 /  30  40  20  40
Springer........................  53  88  54  89 /  40  40  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  52  87  53  88 /  30  30  20  20
Clayton.........................  60  92  61  91 /  30  30  30  30
Roy.............................  60  89  61  89 /  40  40  20  20
Conchas.........................  64  96  65  98 /  50  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  62  94  64  96 /  50  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  98  68  99 /  40  20  30  20
Clovis..........................  63  94  65  95 /  30  10  20  20
Portales........................  64  94  68  96 /  20  10  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  65  95  67  98 /  30  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  68  99  70 100 /  40  20  10  20
Picacho.........................  61  92  63  94 /  50  40  10  20
Elk.............................  58  90  61  93 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

40/41

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020

NMZ201>241-251100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
237 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across much of
eastern New Mexico this afternoon through mid-evening. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity are expected through
the weekend primarily for areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. A few of these storms Thursday through Saturday may
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Drier
conditions arrive Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines. You can also submit storm reports and photos on
our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW GALLUP            35.54N 108.78W
06/24/2020  M62 MPH          MCKINLEY           NM   ASOS

            KGUP ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001334

GUYER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             1 SW UTE PARK           36.55N 105.11W
06/24/2020  E0.88 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001335

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 NW OCATE              36.18N 105.06W
06/24/2020  E0.88 INCH       MORA               NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001336

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             1 W SAN ACACIA          34.25N 106.91W
06/24/2020  M0.75 INCH       SOCORRO            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001337

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
414 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020

NMZ219-242230-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
414 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VALENCIA COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM MDT...

At 414 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm near Belen,
moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Belen, Jarales, Los Trujillos-Gabaldon, Adelino, Rio Communities and
Los Chaves.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 187 and 196.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 10691 3472 10688 3473 10671 3456 10676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 280DEG 15KT 3466 10684

Guyer