Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
236 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Today's storm activity will continue through the evening hours
across central and eastern New Mexico. A few of these storms may
become strong to severe with the greatest risk being in the east
where large hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours will be
possible. Another round of storms is expected on Monday which will
again favor central and eastern New Mexico. Severe weather will be
possible again on Monday in the east. Drier air filtering into the
area will lead to a decrease in storm coverage through Wednesday as
temperatures trend up. Storm chances briefly trend up on Thursday,
but a break in the monsoon looks likely by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
The upper high center was west of New Mexico this afternoon and will
linger there Monday before drifting over New Mexico Monday night and
Tuesday. The change in position of the upper high center will lead
to fewer showers and storms on Monday and Monday night, especially
for locales west of the Rio Grande Valley. Highs Monday will be a few
degrees warmer for most areas, and above normal. Lows will remain
near to above normal.

The atmosphere continues to destabilize this afternoon, especially
over portions of northeast and east central New Mexico where LAPS
has analyzed a -7 LI and CAPE greater than 2000 bullseye at 1 PM.
The Day One slight risk continues along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain and eastward to the Texas border, with the
Marginal area pushed back to the Continental Divide and Arizona
border over southwest New Mexico. Storms will generally move from
north to south, or northwest to southeast, except for southwest New
Mexico where a northeast to southwest movement is more likely.
Severe storms are possible again on Monday afternoon and evening
between the central mountain chain and the Pecos Valley where a
marginal risk is outlooked.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The H5 high pressure will continue to move eastward on Tuesday,
roughly centered over southern NM. The position of the high will
cause PWATs to trend down to around 0.50" for areas west of the
central mountain chain. Low-level southerly flow in the east will
help moisture linger there with dewpoints in the 50's and PWATs near
an inch. Storm coverage will trend down significantly on Tuesday,
but a few storms will still be expected primarily over the northern
Sangre de Cristos and northeast highlands/plains. The high moves
slightly more east on Wednesday into southeastern NM which starts to
allow for a southerly moisture plume to develop which will help to
trend PWATs up to near an inch across the west. This will allow for
a slight uptick in storm coverage across the west on Wednesday.
Emphasis on the "slight uptick" with a lack of deep moisture across
the area as dewpoints will remain in the 30's.

The high moves east into the TX Panhandle on Thursday as a trough
moves into the PacNW. This will continue to trend moisture values
and storm chances up, but it, unfortunately, looks to be short-
lived. While there are some differences in the placement of the high
late next week and into the weekend, guidance is in good agreement
that it will at least move back to the west - possibly over the state
- which shuts off the monsoon moisture tap again.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The upper high center was west of New Mexico this afternoon and will
linger there into Monday before drifting over New Mexico by Tuesday.
This will lead to fewer showers and storms Monday and especially
Tuesday. Consequently, maximum humidity values trend will lower
especially from the AZ border to the central mountain chain Monday
through Tuesday night, resulting in areas of fair to poor overnight
recoveries. Daytime humidities and temperatures trend drier and a
little warmer as well, but winds overall won't be strong enough for
critical conditions to develop.

The upper high will continue moving to the east of New Mexico
Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for the stream of subtropical
moisture to resume, and increasing areal coverage and number of
thunderstorms as soon as Wednesday afternoon. The uptick in
convection will persist Thursday and into Friday before drier
westerly flow dominates northern New Mexico over the weekend,
limiting the bulk of any wetting precipitation to locales south of
Interstate 40.

Ventilation rates will be mostly good to excellent, with some very
localized fair to poor rates Monday central and east and Wednesday
over the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center west of NM with winds aloft trending from northwest
to southeast. Convection expected to develop over the higher terrain
and move into the lower elevations between 21Z and 00Z. Some of the
storms will be strong to severe with large hail and wind gusts around
50kt, and brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys along with mt obscurations
will be possible in the storms. A convective complex may progress
into east central and southeast NM aft 00Z. Tstms to diminish aft 04Z
with sct showers thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  97  62  97 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  50  90  49  90 /  20  20  10   5
Cuba............................  56  91  57  91 /  20  10  10   5
Gallup..........................  58  94  56  93 /  20   5   5   0
El Morro........................  54  89  54  87 /  20  10   5   5
Grants..........................  56  92  57  91 /  20   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  57  89  57  87 /  20  20   5  10
Magdalena.......................  61  89  62  90 /  30  20  20  10
Datil...........................  55  87  57  86 /  30  20  10  10
Reserve.........................  59  93  58  93 /  20  30   5  10
Glenwood........................  66  96  68  99 /  20  20   5  10
Chama...........................  48  84  48  84 /  20  40  20  10
Los Alamos......................  58  87  59  88 /  20  30  20   5
Pecos...........................  55  87  57  89 /  30  40  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  51  84  52  85 /  40  70  30  20
Red River.......................  44  75  45  79 /  40  80  30  30
Angel Fire......................  44  78  46  81 /  40  70  30  20
Taos............................  51  87  52  90 /  30  50  30  10
Mora............................  51  83  52  87 /  40  60  30  20
Espanola........................  59  93  61  95 /  20  30  20   5
Santa Fe........................  56  88  59  90 /  30  30  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  56  91  59  94 /  30  20  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  93  66  95 /  20  10  20   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  94  68  97 /  20  10  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  96  68  99 /  20  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  95  67  98 /  20  10  10   0
Belen...........................  66  97  66  99 /  20  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  63  97  65  99 /  20  10  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  65  96  67  98 /  20  10  10   0
Corrales........................  64  96  66  99 /  20  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  96  67  98 /  20  10  10   0
Placitas........................  62  92  64  94 /  20  20  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  63  96  66  98 /  20  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  67  97  68 100 /  30  20  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  88  60  90 /  30  20  20   5
Tijeras.........................  60  90  62  93 /  30  10  20   5
Edgewood........................  57  91  59  93 /  40  20  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  92  58  95 /  40  20  20   5
Clines Corners..................  56  88  58  91 /  50  20  30   5
Mountainair.....................  58  89  60  92 /  40  10  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  58  89  61  92 /  50  20  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  62  91  67  95 /  60  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  84  61  89 /  70  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  54  82  55  87 /  50  60  50  40
Raton...........................  53  87  54  92 /  50  60  40  20
Springer........................  53  87  54  93 /  40  60  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  84  54  90 /  40  50  40  10
Clayton.........................  58  86  60  89 /  50  20  40  20
Roy.............................  55  85  57  90 /  50  40  40  20
Conchas.........................  62  94  65  98 /  50  20  40   5
Santa Rosa......................  62  92  64  97 /  50  20  30   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  95  66 100 /  60  10  30   5
Clovis..........................  64  93  65  97 /  70  10  30   0
Portales........................  65  95  67  99 /  70  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  95  67  99 /  60  10  40   0
Roswell.........................  70 100  72 105 /  60  10  20   0
Picacho.........................  62  92  67  97 /  60  30  20  10
Elk.............................  59  89  64  93 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
245 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020

NMZ201>241-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
245 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms through this evening across
central and eastern New Mexico. The stronger storms will be capable
of producing large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, and
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The risk for severe weather will continue on Monday across northeast
and east central NM where a few storms may produce large hail,
damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, high winds, and flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. Please relay all severe
weather reports while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines. You
can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via
Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

15

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