Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
105 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Strong wind gusts of 52 to 58kts have been observed stretching from
Pueblo eastward to Lamar, CO behind a potent backdoor cold front
surging southward through eastern CO tonight. Have nudged up winds
and upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for Union
County. Have also extended Wind Advisories to 3 PM this afternoon for
Harding, Quay, and Curry Counties and the Central Highlands.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1142 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
The Pacific front has moved through nearly all TAF sites with the
exception of KROW, which will arrive near the 07Z hour. Strong WNW/NW
winds will persist through the overnight period, diminishing in
strength somewhat through the day Tuesday but still remaining
elevated with 20-30kt gusts. Meanwhile, a strong backdoor cold front
is surging southward through eastern CO, expected to reach KCAO by
08Z-09Z. This front will bring with it more strong winds out of the
NNW/N through Union, Harding, and Quay Counties early Tuesday
morning. Dust prone areas could see vis reductions again Tuesday
afternoon. Winds overall taper off toward the 5-12kt range after 00Z
Wednesday as an upper low over CO exits east into the Great Plains.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020...
.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong upper level disturbance will cross near the Four
Corners region early this evening before moving into Colorado. This
system will bring strong to severe winds to much of New Mexico
tonight along with a cold front. Wind gusts will likely reach or
exceed 50 to 60 mph through the evening and early morning hours as
this front plunges into the Land of Enchantment. Into Tuesday, high
temperatures will be below average by 5 to 15 degrees with northwest
winds remaining gusty, but not nearly as severe as what is expected
tonight. Dry conditions will persist Tuesday and again on Wednesday,
but temperatures should rebound back to normal by Wednesday
afternoon with light to moderate breezes. Temperatures will rise a
couple to a few degrees more on Thursday and Friday with faint areas
of moisture moving into the state, leading to isolated to scattered
areas of shower and thunderstorm development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Strong southwest winds will continue until this evening and late
tonight when speeds will strengthen and shift out of the northwest
with the passage of a Pacific cold front. The strongest wind gusts
could reach 65 mph over central areas. In the wake of the cold front
late tonight speeds will weaken across western areas, and also in
sheltered parts of the northern mountains. Places like Gallup,
Dulce, Chama, Red River, and Angel Fire will have freezing
temperatures tonight. Freezing temperatures should return again in
the northern mountains Tuesday night.

Northwest and north winds will become breezy to windy again Tuesday
with the strongest gusts reaching 50 mph in the morning across parts
of the eastern plains, and potentially as high as 60 mph near
Clayton. The potential exists for another round of critical fire
weather conditions on Tuesday as strong north and northwest winds
linger across northern and eastern areas in the wake of an upper
level trough gradually exiting CO to the east. A few rain showers
will be possible near the CO border from Raton Pass eastward late
tonight into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Wednesday morning's temperatures will be cool again, but slightly
warmer than Tuesday morning's readings. A welcome respite from the
wind will be in store as the upper level gradient relaxes in response
to a dome of high pressure nudging northward over Chihuahua, Mexico.
Dry conditions will persist with low dewpoints, but the southerly
low level flow will begin to alter this going into Thursday.

By Thursday afternoon the surface dewpoints should be rising into the
40's and low 50's in east central to southeastern NM, escalating more
into Thursday night and Friday as return flow off of the Gulf of
Mexico continues. This will carry PWATs above a half inch in parts
of the forecast area Thursday, and up to 0.75 to 1.25 inches over the
eastern two-thirds of the forecast area on Friday. Showers and
storms will likely be inefficient at producing measurable rainfall
Thursday, but that would change for central to eastern areas Friday
with at least isolated to scattered coverage.

Another eastern Pacific low will then make landfall over the OR or
northern CA coast by early Saturday, and this will dictate the
location of both the upper high over Old Mexico and the moisture
plume on its western periphery. For now, an axis of moisture
sufficient for showers and thunderstorms appears to stay intact
Saturday, potentially eroding some Sunday into Monday of next week.

44/52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...

Widespread critical fire weather conditions should linger until
midnight tonight, due to very dry air and very strong northwest
winds that will occur with the passage of a Pacific cold front
tonight. The strongest gusts could reach 65 mph over central areas.
Portions of the northern and western mountains, including Gallup,
are expected to freeze tonight, then again in parts of the northern
mountains Tuesday night. The string of days with critical fire
weather conditions may continue into Tuesday across northern and
eastern parts of the Fire Weather Forecast area. Gusts could reach
up to 50 mph in parts of the east, except up to 60 mph near Clayton,
and around 40 mph central and northwest. Humidities will remain very
low.  However, high temperatures around 5 to 15 degrees below normal
and Haines Indices varying from 3-5 will be limiting factors. Given
the ongoing fire growing pattern, which followed a week of active
lightning strikes, we are leaning toward issuing a Red Flag Warning
for Tuesday.

Winds will weaken Wednesday and Thursday and high temperatures will
trend warmer. Humidities will remain very low until the latter half
of the week, when a high pressure system will build closer to the
state and a moist southerly and southeasterly low-level return flow
develops underneath. The potential exists for some drier variety
thunderstorms over central and southern portions of the fire weather
forecast area on Thursday, then wetting footprints should increase as
thunderstorm coverage spreads to much of the forecast area on Friday
and Saturday. A mix of wet and dry cells will probably still be
found along and west of the continental divide, with wetter storms
favoring locations farther east. Drier air will decrease storm
coverage and wetness again on Sunday as it infiltrates from the
southwest.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT this morning through this evening
for the following zones... NMZ101>104-106>108.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for the following
zones... NMZ214-215-226>228-232-236>239.

High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ207-208-219>222-224-241.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ223-229-233.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ223.

Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT early this morning for the following
zones... NMZ211-212-217-218-225.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ231-234-235.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ230.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
347 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

NMZ201>241-091100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
347 AM MDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and early evening
across all of northern and central New Mexico where low humidity
combined with strong winds will create critical fire weather
conditions. Late this afternoon and evening, a strong cold front will
blast from northwest to southeast. Another burst of strong to
potentially damaging winds is expected along and behind the cold
front for one to three hours. Wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph will
be common.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Critical fire weather conditions may return Tuesday for the Sandia,
Manzano and Gallinas Mountains eastward to the Texas border due to
strong winds and low humidity. Winds will be strongest across
northeast New Mexico where gusts near 50 mph will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report strong wind gusts, wind damage and
any wildfires through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web
site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also
submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter
using the hashtag nmwx.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
139 AM MDT TUE JUN 09 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE CLINES CORNERS    35.00N 105.66W
06/09/2020  M60 MPH          TORRANCE           NM   ASOS

            KCQC ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ202001301

RJH