Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday. Slow and erratic storm motions will create locally heavy
downpours and increase flash flooding risk. By midweek, the upper
high migrates into the Desert Southwest from southern California,
bringing drier air and warmer temperatures in its wake. Storm chances
improve by late week, favoring the central mountain chain and
eastward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
Tonight thru Monday night will feature the most significant and
widespread storm coverage so far this monsoon season. An upper level
speed max is currently moving north-northeast along a sharp gradient
of deep monsoon moisture along the AZ/NM state line. Meanwhile, an
upper level high is strengthening over west TX while drifting west
into eastern NM. These two features will stretch the monsoon plume
over northern and central NM thru Monday as a back door cold front
slides southwest into northeast NM. PW values within the plume are
maxing out btwn 1.2 and 1.5", which is about as good as it gets for
late July. Storm motion will evolve from SW to NE late today into a
slow and erratic mode by Monday with torrential rainfall rates from
any direct hits. This pattern on top of recent heavy rainfall will
elevate the risk for flash flooding just about anywhere across the
area. Near-term models and MOS progs are hinting at widespread storm
coverage Monday developing into a large area of rain Monday night.
The most likely area for persistent overnight rainfall will be over
the northern third of the state as the back door frontal boundary
becomes stationary over the area and the aforementioned speed max
rounds the upper high. Flash Flood Watches are likely to continue
thru this period.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Rich monsoon moisture continues to enhance shower and thunderstorm
potential Tuesday, before a sharp decrease begins midweek.
The axis of the theta-e ridge drapes itself over New Mexico early
Tuesday morning, as the upper high retrogrades to the west, keeping
low level moisture in place. The GFS shows run- to- run consistency
of above normal PWATs, in agreement with the NAEFS which suggests
that values will continue to be 1.25 standard deviations above
normal. Light NW steering flow on the eastern periphery of the high
will combine with high PWATs, creating storms capable of heavy
downpours across the northeast.

Model consensus is good that the high aloft will migrate back into
the Desert Southwest Wednesday from southern CA, strengthening as it
traverses east. Dry, subsident air will sharply decrease the
potential for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday. PWATs are
anticipated to drop from a near max of 1.2" Tuesday to 0.5"
Wednesday; nearly two standard deviations below normal, according to
the NAEFS. That said, carried over some PoPs in the high terrain,
consistent with the NBM. As heights aloft increase with the high's
advancement, temperatures will begin to climb, pushing some locales 5
to 9 degrees above normal. Relief is thankfully on short order, as
moisture reenters the domain by the weekend, with storm chances
favoring areas along and east of the central mountain chain.

Guyer/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon plume will remain centered over NM thru Tuesday with
scattered to numerous showers and storms producing heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding. Storm motion will be toward the north
and east through tonight then become slow and erratic Monday before
shifting to the southeast Tuesday. A strong area of high pressure
will develop over NM Wednesday thru Friday with hotter temperatures
and less coverage of showers and storms with heavy rain.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The axis of rich monsoon moisture remains centered over NM today with
SHRA/TSRA already developing around the central and western higher
terrain. Storm motion will be toward the north around 10 kt across
western NM and to the northeast and east over northeast NM. Direct
hits will be capable of brief IFR with low vsby in +RA, strong wind
gusts, small hail, and frequent CG lightning. The greatest impacts
from storms in expected from 21Z and 02Z across central and western
NM before shifting into northeast NM overnight as a back door cold
front shifts southwest into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  86  62  88 /  50  60  60  30
Dulce...........................  57  79  55  81 /  80  90  70  60
Cuba............................  56  79  56  80 /  70  80  80  60
Gallup..........................  56  83  56  86 /  60  70  60  30
El Morro........................  56  78  54  80 /  70  80  60  50
Grants..........................  55  80  55  82 /  70  80  60  60
Quemado.........................  56  78  56  81 /  60  80  50  60
Magdalena.......................  59  80  60  81 /  70  70  50  70
Datil...........................  53  77  55  78 /  70  80  40  70
Reserve.........................  57  83  57  85 /  60  80  40  60
Glenwood........................  64  88  65  89 /  60  80  30  50
Chama...........................  53  73  50  76 /  80  90  80  70
Los Alamos......................  62  78  60  78 /  70  90  80  70
Pecos...........................  58  75  56  78 /  60  90  80  70
Cerro/Questa....................  56  72  53  76 /  80  90  80  80
Red River.......................  49  66  47  68 /  80 100  80  80
Angel Fire......................  50  67  49  72 /  70  90  80  80
Taos............................  55  77  54  79 /  70  90  80  70
Mora............................  56  71  53  77 /  60  90  80  70
Espanola........................  62  84  61  84 /  60  70  80  60
Santa Fe........................  60  78  58  79 /  60  90  80  70
Santa Fe Airport................  59  82  59  82 /  60  70  70  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  84  64  85 /  60  80  70  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  85  65  87 /  50  60  60  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  87  64  89 /  50  60  60  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  87  65  88 /  50  60  70  50
Belen...........................  65  88  65  89 /  40  50  50  50
Bernalillo......................  63  86  62  88 /  60  70  70  60
Bosque Farms....................  64  87  64  88 /  50  50  60  50
Corrales........................  63  87  63  89 /  50  60  70  50
Los Lunas.......................  63  87  64  88 /  50  50  60  50
Placitas........................  64  83  62  84 /  60  80  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  65  86  64  87 /  50  60  70  50
Socorro.........................  66  88  66  90 /  50  40  40  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  78  59  79 /  60  90  70  60
Tijeras.........................  63  81  62  82 /  60  80  70  60
Edgewood........................  58  79  58  83 /  60  80  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  81  56  85 /  50  80  70  50
Clines Corners..................  58  77  57  81 /  60  80  70  50
Mountainair.....................  59  78  59  82 /  50  80  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  59  79  59  82 /  50  70  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  65  83  65  86 /  40  60  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  76  57  79 /  40  60  30  60
Capulin.........................  58  73  55  76 /  80  90  70  70
Raton...........................  59  78  56  81 /  80  80  70  70
Springer........................  60  80  58  83 /  60  90  70  70
Las Vegas.......................  57  75  55  80 /  60  90  80  70
Clayton.........................  62  78  61  81 /  70  80  70  50
Roy.............................  62  77  59  81 /  70  90  80  60
Conchas.........................  68  86  65  90 /  50  70  70  50
Santa Rosa......................  66  85  63  88 /  40  70  70  50
Tucumcari.......................  71  89  67  91 /  40  70  60  40
Clovis..........................  67  87  65  90 /  20  50  50  40
Portales........................  68  88  67  92 /  20  40  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  69  88  67  92 /  30  60  50  40
Roswell.........................  72  94  71  96 /  20  30  30  30
Picacho.........................  66  86  65  88 /  30  40  30  50
Elk.............................  60  81  60  85 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ206>208-211-218>224-241.

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ212>215-227>232.

&&

42/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
355 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

NMZ201>241-271100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
355 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rainfall can be expected
across much of the area  this afternoon and evening. Storms will
generally move toward the north-northeast at around 10 mph. The far
east- central and southeast plains will be least favored while areas
from southwest through central to north-central and northeast New
Mexico will be most favored. Rainfall rates exceeding one-half inch
in 30 minutes will be possible with the most intense storms. This may
lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near
recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive up to 2
inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind
gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Monday and Tuesday.
Storm motions will be slow and erratic and rainfall could become
heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially
over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may
receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce
small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts, hail size and
any accumulation as well as any flooding through the National Weather
Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling
1.888.386.7637.

41

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

NMZ221-261800-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
1148 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE AND
BERNALILLO COUNTIES UNTIL NOON MDT...

At 1147 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sedillo, or 13 miles northwest of Moriarty, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be likely with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Edgewood, Sedillo and Cedar Grove.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 179 and 187.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 10611 3513 10610 3501 10625 3509 10635
      3522 10624
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 229DEG 7KT 3511 10624

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1225 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

NMZ219>221-224-261915-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-South Central Highlands-Sandia/Manzano
Mountains Including Edgewood-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque
Metro Area-
1225 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VALENCIA...
NORTHEASTERN SOCORRO AND SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
MDT...

At 1223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Abo, or 20 miles southeast of Belen, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rainfall of a half inch of rain in a hour or
more will be possible.

Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountainair, Manzano Mountain State Park, Abo and Manzano.

This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 177 and 206.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 10666 3468 10648 3455 10623 3452 10621
      3450 10617 3426 10624 3425 10659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 220DEG 7KT 3447 10652

39

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
114 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

NMZ206-261945-
West Central Mountains-
114 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CIBOLA...
NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO AND NORTHEASTERN CATRON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM
MDT...

At 114 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles northeast of Pietown, or 24 miles north of Datil, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Cibola, northwestern Socorro and northeastern Catron Counties.

&&

LAT...LON 3471 10777 3453 10753 3446 10763 3447 10765
      3444 10771 3441 10774 3439 10775 3438 10776
      3449 10792
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 221DEG 9KT 3450 10779

31