Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Las Vegas, NV

280 
WGUS75 KVEF 252118
FFSVEF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
218 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

NVC003-252127-
/O.CAN.KVEF.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190725T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clark NV-
218 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storm which dumped heavy rain on Interstate 15 near Jean has 
weakened rapidly. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3597 11517 3577 11527 3580 11534 3601 11534

$$

Morgan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
113 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture in place will fuel thunderstorm
chances today and tomorrow, with hotter and drier conditions for
the weekend. Expect heavy rain which could lead to flash flooding
with any thunderstorms that do develop. Monsoon flow resumes next
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow.

Very moist airmass in place across the southern half of the
region, with a daily record PWAT recorded on the 12Z sounding this
morning. The focus for more organized/long lived convection will
be three features. Two remnant MCVs; one hanging around Inyo
county, the other in the UT-NV-AZ tristate border region. These
are helping to stretch and elongate an inverted trough axis. This
axis has been a focus for shower and storms through the morning.
North of the axis lies better forcing for ascent, while south of
the axis lies the richest moisture.

As the trough axis lifts northward and brings the very moist air
with it, expect the highest threat for thunderstorms and flash
flooding to continue in portions of Inyo, Esmeralda, Nye, and
Lincoln counties. The flash flood watch for this area looks good.
Maximum rainfall rates yesterday reached 2 to 4 inches per hour,
so would expect something similar today with mature storms. Activity
may consolidate this evening into one or more MCS, and may
maintain well after sunset; adding a nighttime flooding risk.

Coverage should decrease tomorrow, but plenty of moisture will
still be available. Activity will depend highly on leftover debris
clouds, boundaries, MCVs from tonight.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Next Week.
With the exit of the monsoon moisture and the shifting of the
ridge axis over the southwest, temperatures are expected to rise
Saturday through Monday. This has been pretty consistent in the
models for the last several days and of concern is the increasing
heat risk in places like the Colorado River Valley and Death
Valley where high temperatures well over 110 degrees look likely
and not much in the way of overnight relief (Min T over 90
degrees).

Also, long range model depictions continue to show a return to a
monsoon set up next week with the only disagreements being in
when this occurs. Did not deviate from NBM for now but similar
impacts will likely be possible again next week. This pattern
looks to last at least through the end of the week, if not later.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture will drive thunderstorm chances
through tomorrow. Heavy rain is likely with thunderstorms, but a
strike or two outside thunderstorm rain is possible. Drier and
hotter conditions are expected over the weekend before monsoon
moisture returns next week.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...The primary concern will be showers and
storms developing in and around the valley this afternoon and
evening accompanied by gusty, erratic winds. The time period of
21z-00z looks to see the best chances to see effects from these
storms along with lowering cigs to 8k-10k feet. Based on the
current development and storm motion expected with this activity
south to southwest winds look to be the most likely direction of
origin for these winds which have been included as the prevailing
direction this afternoon and evening with varying speeds possible.
However, there does continue to be indication of a push of storm
outflow winds from the northwest after 04z this evening.
Confidence is low in this occuring so have not included in this
TAF package. Winds will lessen to 10 knots or less around midnight
and most likely favor whichever wind direction is left over from
the evening hours storm activity.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Showers and storms will continue to develop across much
of the area through tonight producing erratic, gusty winds and
localized, heavy downpours. Terminals in the Las Vegas Valley and
KBIH look to see the best chances of seeing storm activity between
21z-01z this evening and tempo groups have been included. Cigs
still look to only get down to 7k-10k feet with any precipitation
that moves over the terminals. Confidence is low in the direction
and speed of outflow winds at this time but have made best
estimates based on current conditions and forecast storm
development. Best coverage of activity overnight looks to shift
northward across the southern Great Basin before tapering off
early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Monsoon moisture is resulting in
scattered thunderstorms today, with chances lingering into Friday.
Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts as well as any
flooding or wind impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE...Steele
Long Term.........TB3
Aviation..........Guillet

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