Dust Storm Warning 7, NWS Las Vegas, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
226 PM PDT Wed Sep 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Daily thunderstorm chances will be greatest over the
higher terrain, but isolated storms may drift into the valleys at
times through Thursday. Temperatures will be at or above normal for
early September into Saturday. A pattern change will bring breezy
conditions and cooler temperatures over the weekend into early next
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday Night...

Deeper convection ongoing over the higher terrain of central and
northern Mohave county, as well as northern Inyo county. Stronger
cores will be capable of gusty winds and heavy rain. Elsewhere,
development is more stunted under mostly sunny skies and well above
normal temperatures. This looks to be the last day of excessive heat
so will allow the product to run through it expiration.

Models continue to indicate a weak wave drifting east across
southern Arizona and into the Mojave Desert overnight. There is a
bit of spread between the near-term convective allowing models with
just how much nocturnal shower/thunderstorm activity overnight.
Southern Mohave county may see most of the action as outflow
boundaries from central Arizona propagate westward.
Anticipate outflow winds to be 40 mph or less.

On Thursday, weak wave will continue to lift north across the area
in association with stronger trough approaching the northern
California coast. More organized convection will occur in northern
Inyo and Esmeralda counties where models forecast upwards of 30 kts
bulk shear. Shear not as good elsewhere but heavy rain and gusty
winds again possible with stronger cores. Storm motion will inhibit
flash flood potential.

Decreasing shower and thunderstorm coverage expected to commence on
Friday as moisture starts to decrease from west to east.

Temperatures through the end of the week will remain above normal
but not be as warm as those so far this month.
&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday.

There has been little change among ensemble and deterministic runs on
an anticipated pattern change this weekend. A deep, fall-like trough
is progged to track across California and Nevada this weekend. As it
does, attendant dry southwest flow will scour any remaining moisture
and result in mostly clear skies, breezy to gusty winds, and dry
conditions through early next week. This system will likely drop
temperatures below normal by Sunday. There is some agreement that
troughing will continue through at least the middle of next week.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
favor the higher terrain across the southern Great Basin and Mojave
Desert through Thursday. Mature storms may produce sudden, gusty
winds along with heavy downpours. Outside of thunderstorm influence,
winds will be light through the morning then increase to 8-12 mph
from the south this afternoon. Today will be the hottest day, with
temps trending down through the rest of the week. Lowest humidities
should stay in the 15-20% range through the week before a drying
trend through the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Easterly winds will give way over the
next few hours as a push of southerly winds move into the Las Vegas
Valley between 22-23Z. Slight chance the winds could temporarily
shift to the southeast if thunderstorm outflow winds make it to the
valley later this afternoon and early evening. Confidence is low on
this occurring, but if it does, gusts to 20-25 mph will be possible.
Shower activity is expected to be limited in the valley, but cannot
be ruled out entirely. Besides possible outflow winds, winds are
expected to follow south-southwesterly diurnal trends through much
of tomorrow morning. The better development will be in approach
corridors east of Lake Mead and to the southwest near Primm/Jean.
Scattered clouds are likely to continue, becoming broken in the
evening with isolated high based showers possible during the
overnight hours. More widespread thunderstorm activity will be
possible Thursday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Typical summertime afternoon winds are expected across
most TAF sites this afternoon with winds mainly remaining below 10-
12 knots. Some isolated showers and storms may be in the vicinity of
a few airports this afternoon, which could send outflow winds, but
confidence is low on these impacting most TAF sites with slightly
better chances of impacting KBIH. Besides possible outflow winds,
winds are expected to follow typical diurnal trends overnight.
Scattered clouds are likely to continue, becoming broken in the
evening with isolated high based showers possible during the
overnight hours. More widespread thunderstorm activity will be
possible Thursday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Pierce
LONG TERM...Boothe
AVIATION...Kryston

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:

http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
932 PM PDT WED SEP 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SE TOPOCK             34.69N 114.36W
09/04/2019  M59 MPH          MOHAVE             AZ   PUBLIC

&&

AW